Abadi, Cameron, “Young, Iranian and Ready for Change,” Global Post, athttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/middle-east/090609/iran-election-2009 (June 9, 2009).
Al Jazeera, “Mass Rallies Before Iran Election,” Aljazeera.net, athttp://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/06/20096932010636766.html (June 9, 2009).
Al Jazeera, “Iran Seizes Opposition Figures,” Aljazeera.net, athttp://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/12/2009122810330889443.html (December 28, 2009).
Ambinder, Marc, “Follow the Developments in Iran Like a CIA Analyst,” Atlantic, athttp://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/06/follow_the_developments_in_iran_like_a_cia_analyst.php(June 15, 2009).
American Foreign Policy Project, “June 2009 Elections and After,” American Foreign Policy Project website, at http://www.americanforeignpolicy.org/who-rules-iran/june-2009-elections (June 22, 2009).
Ansari, Ali “The President Needs to Know the Eyes of the World Are on Him,” The Independent, athttp://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/ali-ansari-the-president-needs-to-know-the-eyes-of-the-world-are-on-him-1704811.html (June 14, 2009).
Ansari, Ali, “Preliminary Analysis of the Voting Figures in Iran’s 2009 Presidential Election,” Institute of Iranian Studies, University of St. Andrews, athttp://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/14234_iranelection0609.pdf(June 21, 2009) (“Chatham House Preliminary Analysis”).
Ansari, Ali, “Last year’s Iranian Presidential Election: Urban Myths Revisited,” Chatham House, athttp://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/twt/archive/view/-/id/2045/ (July, 2010).
Bahari, Mazier, “Secret Poll Shows Voters Turn Against Ahmadinejad,” Newsweek, athttp://www.newsweek.com/id/200960 (June 6, 2009).
Ballen, Ken and Doherty, Patrick, “The Iranian People Speak,” Washington Post, athttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757.html(June 15, 2009).
Barzegar, Abbas, “Wishful Thinking from Tehran,” Guardian, athttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/13/iranian-election (June 13, 2009).
BBC News, “25 Km Human Chain in Tehran,” athttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2009/06/090608_bd_ir88_green_chain.shtml (June 9, 2009)
BBC News, “Huge Turnout in Iran Presidential Poll,” at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8096411.stm(June 12, 2009).
BBC News, “Iran Probes 646 Poll Complaints,” athttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8107192.stm (June 18, 2009).
Beber, Bernd and Scacco, Alexandra, “The Devil Is In The Digits,” Washington Post, athttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/20/AR2009062000004.html?hpid=opinionsbox1 (June 20, 2009).
Benen, Steve, “When Strong Voter Turnout Is Too Strong,” Washington Monthly, athttp://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2009_06/018712.php (June 22, 2009).
Berger, Arno and Hill, Ted, “Benford Online Bibliography,” at http://www.benfordonline.net/(updated through July 7, 2009).
Bolton, John R., “Time for an Israeli Strike?”, Washington Post, athttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/01/AR2009070103020.html (July 2, 2009).
Boot, Max, “Israel’s Options on Iran,” Commentary, athttp://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/boot/72122 (July 2, 2009).
Carter Center, “The Venezuela Presidential Recall Referendums: Final Reports,” athttp://www.cartercenter.org/news/documents/doc2023.html (February 25, 2005).
Clavel, Andres Sosa, “The Electoral System in Iran and the Presidential Elections,” Mundo Electoral,at http://220.127.116.11/html/index.php?id=358 (September 6, 2009).
CNN.com/World, “Rival Demonstrations Fill Tehran Streets,” CNN.com/World website, athttp://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/16/iran.elections.protests/index.html (June 16, 2009).
Cohen, Roger, “Answering Your Iran Questions,” New York Times, athttp://kristof.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/26/answering-your-iran-questions/ (June 26, 2009).
Cohen, Roger, “Iran’s Children of Tomorrow,” New York Times, athttp://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/opinion/23iht-edcohen.html?pagewanted=2 (June 23, 2009)
Cohen, Roger, “Iran’s Day of Anguish,” New York Times, athttp://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/opinion/15iht-edcohen.html?ref=opinion (June 14, 2009). This was the first of Cohen’s numerous post-election New York Times columns on the 2009 Iran election.
Cohen, Roger, “Iran’s Exiles,” New York Times, athttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/23/opinion/23iht-edcohen.html?ref=opinion (March 22, 2010).
Coker, Margaret, “Inside Iran’s Crackdown,” Wall Street Journal, athttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704207504575129461549263620.html (March 19, 2010). Also available at Planet Iran, at http://planet-iran.com/index.php/news/12779.
Cole, Juan, “Stealing the Iranian Election,” Informed Comment (Dr. Cole’s blog), athttp://www.juancole.com/2009_06_01_juancole_archive.html (June 13, 2009). See, also, Cole, “Ahmadinejad Re-Elected Under Cloud of Fraud,” Salon.com,http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/06/13/iran/ (June 13, 2009).
Cole, Juan, Informed Comment (Dr. Cole’s blog), at http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/provincial-election-returns.html (June 15, 2009).
Cummins, Chip, “Iranian Mourners Swarm Qom for Montazeri’s Funeral,” Wall Street Journal, athttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB126139458023500039.html (December 21, 2009).
Dalton, Richard, “Iran: Election or Coup?”, Chatham House, athttp://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/media/comment/iran_election_dalton/ (June 15, 2009).
Daraghi, Borzou, “In Iran, Disparate, Powerful Forces Ally Against Ahmadinejad,” Los Angeles Times,at http://articles.latimes.com/2009/jun/07/world/fg-iran-election7?pg=2 (June 7, 2009).
Dreyfuss, Robert, “The Next Explosion in Iran,” Nation, athttp://www.thenation.com/blogs/dreyfuss/445128/the_next_explosion_in_iran (June 21, 2009).
Enduring America (website), “The Latest from Iran (22 June): Rumbling On,” athttp://enduringamerica.com/2010/06/22/the-latest-from-iran-22-june-rumbling-on/#comments(June 22, 2010).
Esfandiari, Reza and Bozorgmehr, Yousef, “A Rejoinder to the Chatham House Report on Iran’s 2009 Presidential Election Offering a New Analysis on the Result,” athttp://www.iranaffairs.com/files/iranian-election.pdf. For a shorter and less technical version, see, Esfandiari, Reza and Bozorgmehr, Yousef, “Ahmadinejad: Duly Elected President of Iran,” Al Jazeera Magazine, athttp://aljazeera.com/news/articles/39/Ahmadinejad_duly_elected_president_of_Iran.html (August 13, 2009).
Fathi, Nazila, “In Tehran, Thousands Rally to Back Government,” New York Times, athttp://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/31/world/middleeast/31iran.html?scp=1&sq=iran%20nazila%20chocolate&st=cse (December 30, 2009).
Fisk, Robert, “Iran Erupts as Voters Back ‘the Democrator’,” Independent, athttp://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-iran-erupts-as-voters-back-the-democrator-1704810.html (June 14, 2009).
Fox News, “Ahmadinejad Dismisses Iran Election Violence,” Fox News, athttp://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,526220,00.html (June 18, 2009).
Friedman, George, “Western Misconceptions Meet Iranian Reality,” Stratfor Global Intelligence, athttp://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090615_western_misconceptions_meet_iranian_reality (June 15, 2009).
Friedman, Thomas, “Ballots Over Bullets,” New York Times, athttp://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/10/opinion/10friedman.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=iran friedman election june 2009&st=cse (June 9, 2009).
Gelman, Andrew, “Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science,” athttp://www.stat.columbia.edu/%7Ecook/movabletype/archives/2009/06/combining_findi.html(June 20, 2009).
Guardian Council of Iran, “Full Text of Guardian Council Report on Iran Presidential Election,” as translated by BBC Monitoring Middle East, at http://www.iranaffairs.com/files/document.pdf (July 18, 2009) (“Guardian Council Report”).
Gwertzman, Bernard, “U.S. Should React Cautiously to Iran’s ‘Stolen Election’,” interview of Gary G. Sick, Council of Foreign Relations Website, at http://www.cfr.org/publication/19622/ (June 14, 2009).
Haass, Richard N., “Enough is Enough,” Newsweek, at http://www.newsweek.com/id/231991(January 22, 2010).
Hilsum, Lindsey, “Interviewing a Former Iranian Basij Militia Member,” Channel 4 News – World News Blog, at http://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/2009/12/16/interviewing-a-former-iranian-basij-militia-member/ (December 16, 2009).
InsideIran.org, “Q&A: Mohammad Reza Heidari on why diplomats like himself and other Iranian government officials are now opposed to the state,” InsideIran.org, athttp://www.insideiran.org/featured/qa-mohammad-reza-heidari-on-why-diplomats-like-himself-and-other-iranian-government-officials-are-now-opposed-to-the-state/ (April 28, 2010).
InsideIran.org, “Q&A: Seyed Mohammad Marandi: Green Movement Defeated,” InsideIran.org, athttp://www.insideiran.org/news/qa-seyed-mohammad-marandi-green-movement-defeated/(February 15, 2010).
Interior Ministry of Iran (the “Interior Ministry Report”). A comma-delimited file is available athttp://thomaslotze.com/iran/Mebane_Lotze_Iran_2009_polling.csv, or find this and other data files in Excel spreadsheet format at link labeled “iranian_election.zip” on website page available athttp://thomaslotze.com/iran/index.php#Benford. Interior Ministry spreadsheets include a “Total” column for each ballot box that, in some cases, varies slightly from the sum of the four candidates’ votes plus invalid ballots. For this reason, vote totals shown in this article reflect a calculation of each ballot-box total: the sum of the four candidates’ votes plus the invalid ballots. Difference between overall vote total stated in Interior Ministry Report and overall calculated vote total was not significant. Total votes in Interior Ministry Report varied slightly (.07%) from total votes reported by Interior Ministry on day after election (see, Ansari, Chatham House Preliminary Report (http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/14234_iranelection0609.pdf), though in the case of Mohsen Rezai, the difference arguably was significant (albeit inconsequential, since Rezai received less than 2% of the vote): Ahmadinejad’s vote total decreased by .02% in final Interior Ministry Report; Mousavi’s total increased by .32%; Rezai’s total decreased by 3.3%; Karroubi’s total decreased by 1.0%; number of invalid ballots increased by 2.8%. Later Interior Ministry Report reflected June 20 recount of 10% of ballot boxes. Unless otherwise stated, all vote-count data cited in this article are based on Interior Ministry Report data, with calculated ballot-box totals as explained above.
Kagan, Robert, “How Obama Can Reverse Iran’s Dangerous Course,” Washington Post, athttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/26/AR2010012602122.html(January 27, 2010).
Karon, Tony, “Why Iran’s Mullahs Are Feeling Lucky,” Time.com, athttp://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1065213,00.html (May 24, 2005).
Kessler, Glenn and Cohen, Jon, “Signs of Fraud Abound, But No Hard Evidence,” Washington Post,at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/15/AR2009061503235.html(June 16, 2009). Jon Cohen is the Washington Post’s director of polling.
Khalaji, Mehdi, “Iran’s Voting Manipulation Industry,” Real Clear World, athttp://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2009/06/irans_voting_manipulation_indu.html (June 10, 2009).
Khalaji, Mehdi, and Pastor, Robert, “How Ahmadinejad Stole an Election – and How He Can Fix It?”,Foreign Policy, athttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/08/19/how_ahmadinejad_stole_an_election_and_how_he_can_fix_it (August 19, 2009).
Kuperman, Alan J., “There’s Only One Way to Stop Iran,” New York Times, athttp://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/24/opinion/24kuperman.html?scp=1&sq=kuperman&st=cse(online publication date: December 23, 2009).
Landler, Mark, “Clinton Raises Concerns of Military Power in Iran,” New York Times, athttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/16/world/middleeast/16diplo.html (February 15, 2010).
Landler, Mark, “Iran Policy Now More in Sync With Clinton’s Views,” New York Times, athttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/17/world/middleeast/17diplo.html?scp=7&sq=hillary%20dictatorship%20iran&st=cse (February 16, 2010).
Leverett, Flynt and Leverett, Hillary Mann, “Ahmadinejad Won. Get Over It,” New America Foundation, athttp://www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2009/ahmadinejad_won_get_over_it_14722(June 15, 2009).
Leverett, Flynt, and Leverett, Hillary Mann “Another Iranian Revolution? Not Likely,” New York Times, at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/06/opinion/06leverett.html (January 5, 2010).
Lotze, Thomas, “Visualizations and Analysis of the 2009 Iranian Election,” athttp://thomaslotze.com/iran/index.php#Benford (undated, except for 2009 copyright notice; retrieved March 30, 2010).
Lucas, Scott, “Iran Interview: Mousavi Adviser Beheshti on the Election,” Enduring America Website, at http://enduringamerica.com/2009/08/25/iran-interview-mousavi-advisor-beheshti-on-the-election/ (August 25, 2009).
Mahsuli, Sadeq, Press TV interview (June 25, 2009), reported on BBC Monitoring Service on June 30, 2009. Sadeq Mahsuli was Iran’s Interior Minister at the time of the interview.
Mansourian, Faroud, “The Voting ‘Industry’ in the Islamic Republic of Iran,”http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=135110786928 (July 8, 2009).
McInerney, Thomas, “Target: Iran,” WeeklyStandard.com, athttp://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/101dorxa.asp (April 24, 2006).
Mebane, Walter R., Jr., “Election Forensics: Vote Counts and Benford’s Law,” athttp://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/pm06.pdf (July 18, 2006).
Mebane, Walter R., Jr., “Note on the Presidential Election in Iran, June 2009,” at http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/note19jun2009.pdf (June 29, 2009).
Mokhtarzada, Homeyra, “A Primer on Iran’s Presidential Election System,” The Electoral Knowledge Network, at http://aceproject.org/today/feature-articles/a-primer-on-iran2019s-presidential-election-system (not dated).
Mousavi, Mir-Houssein, “Excerpts from Presidential Candidate Mousavi’s Statement About Fraud in the Iranian Presidential Election,” Daily Star (Lebanon), athttp://www.mallat.com/pdf/DSBBC30July09.pdf (July 30, 2009, publishing translation of statement from Persian to English by BBC Monitoring Service on July 5, 2009).
Mousavi, Mir-Houssein, “Mousavi’s Letter to Guardian Council for Nullification of the Election Results,” Scribd, at http://www.scribd.com/doc/16415619/Mousavis-Letter-to-Guardian-Council-for-Nullification-of-the-Election-Results20090614 (June 14, 2009).
Mousavi, Mir-Houssein, “Mousavi’s Petition to Iran’s Supreme Leader,” Al Arabiya News Channel, athttp://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2009/06/18/76328.html (June 14, 2009).
Muravchik, Joshua, “Force is the Only Answer,” Los Angeles Times, athttp://articles.latimes.com/2006/nov/19/opinion/op-muravchik19 (November 19, 2006).
News24.com, “Mousavi Claims Win in Iran Poll,” News24.com, athttp://www.news24.com/Content/World/News/1073/eb14b74b06b74321aa1720e23c6da96b/12-06-2009-10-01/Mousavi_claims_win_in_Iran_poll (June 12, 2009).
Peterson, Scott, “Iran Opposition Energized by Montazeri Funeral in Qom, Say Eyewitnesses,”Christian Science Monitor, at http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2009/1221/Iran-opposition-energized-by-Montazeri-funeral-in-Qom-say-eyewitnesses (December 21, 2009).
Peterson, Scott, “Was Iran’s Election Rigged? Here’s What Is Known So Far,” Christian Science Monitor, at http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2009/0617/p06s01-wome.html (June 17, 2009).
Pipes, Daniel, “How to Save the Obama Presidency: Bomb Iran,” National Review, athttp://article.nationalreview.com/423580/how-to-save-the-obama-presidency-bomb-iran/daniel-pipes (February 2, 2010).
Press TV, “Debate on Chatham Report on Iranian Election, Part 2,” Press TV, athttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0JH5PPx8fU&feature=related (June 25, 2009), among Dr. Ali Ansari (England), Dr. Kaveh Afrasiabi (United States) and Dr. Seyed Mohammad Marandi (Tehran University, Iran) (“Press TV Debate”).
Raimondo, Justin, “Iran’s Election: None of America’s Business,” Antiwar.com, athttp://original.antiwar.com/justin/2009/06/14/irans-election-none-of-americas-business/ (June 15, 2009).
Raimondo, Justin, “Iran’s Green Revolution: Made in America,” Antiwar.com, athttp://original.antiwar.com/justin/2009/06/21/iran’s-green-revolution-made-in-america/ (June 22, 2009).
Robinson, Simon, “Five Reasons to Suspect Iran’s Election Results,” Time.com, athttp://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1904645_1904644_1904639,00.html(June 15, 2009).
Roukema, Boudewijn F. “Benford’s Law Anomalies in the 2009 Iranian Presidential Election,” athttp://arxiv.org/abs/0906.2789 (June 16, 2009). Dr. Roukema teaches at Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun, Poland.
Safdari, Cyrus, “Iran Elections: Fraud Claims and Counter-Claims Analyzed,” Iran Affairs (blog), athttp://www.iranaffairs.com/iran_affairs/2009/06/iran-elections-claims-and-counterclaims-analyzed.html (June 19, 2009).
Salehi-Isfahani, Djavad, “Tyranny of Numbers – Chatham House Rules For Election Fraud,” athttp://djavad.wordpress.com/2009/06/28/the-chatham-house-rules-election-fraud/ (June 28, 2009).
Sexton, Renard, “A Recount May Not Alter the Result of the Election,” The Independent, athttp://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/renard-sexton-a-recount-may-not-alter-the-result-of-the-election-1707897.html (June 18, 2009).
Sexton, Renard, “Iran Does Have Some Fishy Numbers,” FiveThirtyEight.com, athttp://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/iran-does-have-some-fishy-numbers.html (June 15, 2009).
Silver, Nate, “Statistical Report Purporting to Show Rigged Iranian Election is Flawed,”FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right, at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/statistical-evidence-does-not-prove.html (June 13, 2009).
Slackman, Michael, “Amid Crackdown, Iran Admits Voting Errors,” New York Times, athttp://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/world/middleeast/23iran.html (available on-line June 22, 2009)).
Slackman, Michael, “Iran Standoff Deepens With New Show of Force,” New York Times, athttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/02/world/middleeast/02iran.html?scp=7&sq=ashura%20rally&st=cse (January 1, 2010).
Strobel, Warren P., “Why the Official Iranian Election Results Are Suspect,” McClatchy.com, athttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/70269.html (June 17, 2009).
Sullivan, Andrew, “Grand Ayatollah Montazeri Takes a Stand,” The Daily Dish, athttp://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/grand-ayatollah-montazeri-takes-a-stand.html (June 16, 2009).
Szrom, Charles, and Majidyar, Ahmad, “2009 Iran Presidential Election Expatriate and Foreign Voting Results,” American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Iran Tracker, athttp://www.irantracker.org/analysis/2009-iranian-presidential-election-expatriate-and-foreign-voting-results(June 14, 2009). (“Szrom Expatriate”).
Szrom, Charles, and Majidyar, Ahmad, “2009 Iran Presidential Election Results by Province,”American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Iran Tracker, http://www.irantracker.org/analysis/iranian-2009-presidential-election-results-province.
Taherkenareh, Abedin, “Can Iran’s Minorities Help Oust Ahmadinejad?” Time.com, athttp://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1901667,00.html (May 30, 2009).
Talev, Margaret, “Iran Election Makes Obama’s Outreach Efforts Harder,” McClatchy.com, athttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/70020.html (June 13, 2009).
ThaiIndian News, “Hawaii-Based Academic Questions Legitimacy of Ahmadinejad Win,” ThaiIndian News, at http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/world-news/hawaii-based-academic-questions-legitimacy-of-ahmadinejads-win_100206030.html (June 17, 1009).
Warrick, Joby and Miller, Greg, “Iranian technocrats, disillusioned with government, offer wealth of intelligence to U.S.,” Washington Post, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/24/AR2010042402710.html (April 25, 2010).
Weisbrot, Mark, “Was Iran’s Election Stolen?”, PostGlobal (Washingpost.com), athttp://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/needtoknow/2009/06/was_irans_election_stolen.html (June 26, 2009).
WorldPublicOpinion.org, “Analysis of Multiple Polls Finds Little Evidence Iranian Public Sees Government as Illegitimate,” athttp://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/652.php?nid=&id=&pnt=652&lb= (February 3, 2010). See also September 19, 2009 report, cited herein.
WorldPublicOpinion.Org, “Iranians Favor Diplomatic Relations With US But Have Little Trust in Obama,” WorldPublicOpinion.Org, athttp://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/639.php?nid=&id=&pnt=639&lb (September 19, 2009). Another presentation of the opinion-poll results appears at http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/sep09/IranUS_Sep09_quaire.pdf. See also February 3, 2010 report, cited herein.
Worth, Robert F. and Fathi, Nazila, “Police Are Said to Have Killed 10 in Iran Protests,” New York Times, at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/28/world/middleeast/28iran.html?scp=1&sq=iran%20ashura%20nazila&st=cse (December 27, 2009).
Worth, Robert F., and Fathi, Nazila, “Protests Flare in Tehran as Opposition Disputes Vote,” New York Times, at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/world/middleeast/14iran.html (June 13, 2009).
YouTube, “Iranian Protesters Burning Police Motor Bikes,” at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVNPZBTLE8g&feature=PlayList&p=7D7B0C3D5701D087&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=24 (June 17, 2009).
YouTube, video recording of Ahmadinejad/Mousavi debate, with voice-over English translation, athttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DNmR15Lui8&feature=related) (June 3, 2009).
*Eric A. Brill is an attorney lives in San Francisco.