Did Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Steal the 2009 Iran Election?

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Interior Ministry of Iran (the “Interior Ministry Report”). A comma-delimited file is available athttp://thomaslotze.com/iran/Mebane_Lotze_Iran_2009_polling.csv, or find this and other data files in Excel spreadsheet format at link labeled “iranian_election.zip” on website page available athttp://thomaslotze.com/iran/index.php#Benford. Interior Ministry spreadsheets include a “Total” column for each ballot box that, in some cases, varies slightly from the sum of the four candidates’ votes plus invalid ballots. For this reason, vote totals shown in this article reflect a calculation of each ballot-box total: the sum of the four candidates’ votes plus the invalid ballots. Difference between overall vote total stated in Interior Ministry Report and overall calculated vote total was not significant. Total votes in Interior Ministry Report varied slightly (.07%) from total votes reported by Interior Ministry on day after election (see, Ansari, Chatham House Preliminary Report (http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/14234_iranelection0609.pdf), though in the case of Mohsen Rezai, the difference arguably was significant (albeit inconsequential, since Rezai received less than 2% of the vote): Ahmadinejad’s vote total decreased by .02% in final Interior Ministry Report; Mousavi’s total increased by .32%; Rezai’s total decreased by 3.3%; Karroubi’s total decreased by 1.0%; number of invalid ballots increased by 2.8%. Later Interior Ministry Report reflected June 20 recount of 10% of ballot boxes. Unless otherwise stated, all vote-count data cited in this article are based on Interior Ministry Report data, with calculated ballot-box totals as explained above.

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*Eric A. Brill is an attorney lives in San Francisco.