On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran, codenamed “Epic Fury” by the U.S. and “Roaring Lion” by Israel. Their official rationale? Preemptive self-defense, framed as protecting the American people from a “vicious regime.” Sound familiar? Iraq 2003. Libya 2011. The script may change, but the tune stays the same.
What the planners in Washington and Tel Aviv didn’t anticipate was that Iran wouldn’t simply absorb these blows. Instead, it would turn the tables entirely.
Three weeks into this illegal war, the world is waking up to a reality that a handful of analysts saw coming: Iran holds cards that the West never bothered to count. And one of the strongest of those cards lies at the southern tip of Iran, where the Strait of Hormuz funnels 20 million barrels of oil a day—roughly 20% of global oil consumption.
This is the story of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway Iran is legally entitled to control—and a game-changer in a war built on strategic ignorance.
The Illegal War: A Consensus Across the Aisle
Let’s be clear about what’s happening here. This isn’t a “conflict” or a “dispute.” It’s an illegal war of aggression, launched without UN Security Council approval, and in clear violation of the UN Charter and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The targeted assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening strikes wasn’t just a military move. It was a direct assault on sovereign equality—a signal that might, not law, is the new rule. As Professor Guo Jiulin of Dalian Minzu University warns, such actions reflect a dangerous return to the “law of the jungle.”
Even within the U.S. strategic community, the war’s illegitimacy is evident. John Mearsheimer, a leading international relations scholar, pointed out that the U.S. had no legitimate reason to attack Iran, and that Israel and its powerful lobby played a pivotal role in dragging America into this war. As Mearsheimer bluntly put it, this is another war for Israel, packaged as a threat to America.
The Strategic Miscalculation: Why the Empire Still Doesn’t Get It
The haunting question is: What did Washington think would happen? For years, Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a Tehran University professor, has pointed out the West’s fundamental misunderstanding of Iran. As he told analyst Glenn Diesen, the West operates under the illusion that Iran is “weak, fragmented, and on the brink of collapse”—a dangerous fantasy. Iran’s internal cohesion strengthens under external pressure, not weakens.
Mearsheimer echoes this sentiment. For Iran to “win” the war, he says, all it has to do is survive. Even if its military infrastructure is damaged, if the regime remains intact, Iran wins. A painful lesson from history: The U.S. won every battle in Vietnam—and lost the war.
The Resource War: What This Is Really About
Beyond the nuclear rhetoric and cries of regional instability lies a simpler truth: control of resources. Marandi points out that Israel’s ambitions—backed by the U.S.—are to dominate West Asia’s oil and gas resources, and to secure the Gulf region for Western energy interests. A weakened or compliant Iran would pave the way for Western companies to operate without obstacles.
But here’s where the planners miscalculated: Iran’s military isn’t built for blitzkrieg victories. Instead, it is designed to resist, absorb blows, and counterattack asymmetrically. Iran’s network of regional allies—from Hezbollah to the Houthis—turns any conflict into a multidimensional game.
A Rare Glimpse of Iran’s Control: Footage from the Heart of the Hormuz
While Western diplomats debated and analysts speculated, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) did something unprecedented—they took a journalist into the heart of the Strait of Hormuz and showed the world exactly how Iran maintains control.
In rare footage, the journalist aboard an IRGC ship filmed foreign oil tankers stationary in the strait, unable to move without IRGC permission. As the camera zooms in, the narrator explains that these vessels are targeted if they try to move without authorization. The footage includes scenes from Hormuz Island, Larak Island, and the IRGC’s high vantage points.
The Legal Question: Iran’s Right to Control
Western media has framed Iran’s actions as “piracy” or “aggression.” But international law tells a different story.
According to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Strait of Hormuz is a strait used for international navigation, requiring transit passage rights. However, under UNCLOS Articles 25 and 51, coastal states like Iran have the right to take measures in self-defense if their sovereignty is threatened.
Iran has explicitly invoked these provisions in its response to the U.S.-Israeli military attacks, framing its actions as a self-defense extension. If a state is at war and its enemy is using maritime routes to fuel its war machine, the blockade of those routes isn’t piracy; it’s strategic defense.
The Economic Weapon: Turning the Screws
The economic impact of Iran’s blockade is devastating. Normally, over 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through the Strait daily. But since the U.S.-Israel strikes began, Iranian retaliatory measures have brought shipping to a standstill.
Washington’s response? Emergency measures. The U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to offload 172 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserves. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has pledged to release 400 million barrels from the emergency reserves of its 32 member countries.
European officials have warned that a prolonged war could lead to a stagflation shock, driving up energy prices and inflation. The architects of this illegal war didn’t understand one thing: Iranians unite under foreign pressure. As Marandi says, this isn’t about breaking Iran—it’s about solidifying it.
A Deeper Shift: A World Transformed
No matter the outcome, this war is already reshaping the global order. Abdulnabi Salman, Bahrain’s deputy speaker, warned that the events of the past few weeks have crossed red lines long considered fundamental to international norms.
As Professor Guo Jiulin aptly puts it, we are faced with a choice: continue with hegemonic unilateralism, or build a new model of global governance based on multilateralism, mutual respect, and adherence to international law.
