For Iranian reformists, the twin parliament and Assembly of Experts elections on February 26 were also a chance to blow new life to their presence in the power circle of the Islamic Republic which they lost after their rejection of the results of the 2009 presidential elections, leading to street riots and months of chaos in the capital city of Tehran.

Almost six years after those days, Reformists are cheering the election gains and are ecstatic about their unexpected wins in the ballot boxes and sweeping Principalists off parliament seats in the Tehran constituency.

However, the results in the other cities are different and both Principalists and Reformists have enough seats to be influential in the next parliament and the Assembly of Experts, but the fact that almost all of the Principalists’ prominent figures in Tehran failed to find their way into the Parliament (and in case of the Assembly of Experts, only Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati was elected ranking 16th out of the 16 seats reserved for the Tehran constituency) is a major blow to them which had the upper hand over the course of the past decade.

Though Reformists’ gain in the elections is also a result of their coalition with government supporters, known as the Moderates, as well as some moderate Principalist figures such as Ali Motahhari which led them to support coalition lists for the twin elections, the fact that Reformists could gain such a major support from the people is an undeniable reality for the political power sphere of the Islamic Republic and on the other hand this victory poses, at the same time, an opportunity and a threat for the winning Reformists.

Will Reformists seize the opportunity?

After 2009’s post-election disputes and street riots, many Reformist leaders were arrested and many of their aides who spurred the public into street riots had to flee the country; subsequently, the leadership in Iran lost its faith in the movement and to loyalty of prominent Reformist leaders. This lack of confidence in the Reformist movement and absence of its leaders and forces beside consecutive defeats in the national and local elections pushed reformist figures out of the political scene, minimizing their role.

After Hassan Rouhani won the 2013 presidential election, he tried to pave the way for the return of Reformists to the country’s political circle, while, he himself is not a Reformist and even was a serious critic of them while he served as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

The full participation of the reformists in the recent elections (even Reformists’ leaders under house arrest invited their supporters to participate in the elections) and then the results of the recent twin elections and especially the landslide victory of the Reformists in Tehran showed that the movement is coming back into the political sphere of the country and will revive its status as a legitimate game-changer.

Now, it’s about time for Reformist leaders to engage in direct talks with the political leadership of the system and to iron out misunderstandings and address the existing issues with them. Overestimating their reemerging power and making the same mistake of playing the role of staunch opponents of the Islamic Republic can lead them to a process which will not have better results than they gain in recent years. But a negotiated resolution not only will recreate the confidence and trust of the Islamic Republic to them but will secure their return to highest levels of the power in the country.

Dangers of a victory

If one was to study the voting pattern of the Iranians in last three decades, they would see Iranians mostly (if not always) make pragmatist decisions and never support a particular group because of their theoretical aims and promising rhetoric. Iranians evaluate the records of an official and after providing them enough time, they would decide to whether continue their support or terminate it. Unexpected victories of the Former reformist President Mohammad Khatami in 1997 and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 presidential elections are good examples of how different choices Iranian people can make due to their experience of the incumbent officials.

For this reason, Rouhani’s government- which turned to be a facilitator for the return of Reformism – will have a critical time for the rest of its tenure. Now the Parliament is also in line with the government and in case the government fails in fulfilling its promises, Principalists cannot be blamed as being the trouble makers! While people are hoping for a better economic situation after giving Rouhani more than two years to reach a nuclear deal, possible excessive concentration of Reformists on their political causes may undermine their ability to make significant and tangible changes in the life of ordinary people and so lose their votes in future Presidential elections, after less than two years.

In the words of the senior reformist leader Mohammadreza Aref during his campaign for the 2013 Presidential election, each time both government and the parliament was controlled by one party the outcome was not satisfactory.

Another threat to the Reformists is their inability in understanding the ordinary and the lower-classes especially in the small cities. They are the sources that provided Ahmadinejad with enough vote to win two Presidential elections against the robust rivals from the Reformist and Conservative circles. Today’s threat to Reformism is to make their usual mistake of confusing Tehran and large cities’ political tendency with national sentiments and ignoring lower- classes and ordinary people for who politics is not a priority.

Next presidential elections will be the scene of a critical completion between the Moderates/ Reformists who were controlling two important sources of power for at least two years and the Principalists who were out of power for the same period. I believe it will be the incumbent government’s economic record that will determine the next winner.

The post How Iranian Reformists’ Victory Can Turn Into Defeat? first appeared on .

On Monday his answers were surprising for all observers.

Of course the election of Rowhani as Iran’s new president will make some changes on the country’s methods in dealing with internal and international issues but it is unrealistic if one expects Rowhani a moderate cleric to make substantial changes on Iran’s policies.

As IransView’s Abdullah Almasi explained earlier Rowhani is not a real reformist and lacked the popularity of the Reformists’ main candidate Mohammad Reza Aref whose followers ended up unifying behind the previously Fundamentalist Rowhani.

Following Rowhani’s victory in Iran’s Presidential election, western leaders reacted positively and expressed hope that Rowhani would take Iran on a ‘different course.’

“The expectations of the international community with regard to Iran are significant, especially about its nuclear programme and its involvement in Syria, ” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said in a statement shortly after Rowhani won the Iran’s election.

In the President-elect’s first press conference a reporter of France24 recalled the time that Mr. Rowhani as the Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council suspended Iran’s nuclear activities and asked whether he is ready to suspend nuclear enrichment again as a confidence building step. “That era is behind us,” Rowhani replied.

The decision of the Reformist government in 2004 (when Rowhani was Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator) to suspend all of Iran’s nuclear activities attracted a lot of criticism because the West failed to abide by its promises and to normalize Iran’s nuclear dossier.

In the last months of the Reformist government of Mohammad Khatami Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei ordered the reformist government to cancel the voluntary suspension of nuclear activities and later the Principalist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would win the election by promising to reactivate Iran’s nuclear activities in his campaigns.

Now after 8 years of significant progress in Iran’s peacefull nuclear program, Hassan

Rowhani says a suspension of nuclear activities is a step backward.

“Our nuclear programme is completely transparent,” Mr Rowhani said on Monday in his presser.

He also condemned sanctions against Iran by saying “The sanctions are unfair and our (nuclear) activities are legal. These sanctions are illegal and only benefit Israel.”

On Iran’s stance toward Syria also Rowhani showed no change from the past.

“Our stance on Syria will never change,” Rowhani said.

“The final decision-maker about the fate of Syria is the Syrian nation, we oppose terrorism and a civil war and that other countries want to interfere in Syria’s internal affairs.”

Regarding Iran-US relations Rowhani also did not show a significant difference to the stance of Ayatollah Khamenei.

The issue of “Iran’s relations with the United States is a complicated and difficult one,” said Rowhani, adding “anyway we will not pursue any escalation of tensions.”

“Any talks with the United States should be based on mutual respect and interests as well as being on an equal footing,” said Rowhani repeating the Supreme Leader’s words regarding the issue.

The resumption of negotiations with the United States has a number of pre- conditions,” Rowhani said on Monday in his first press conference.

“U.S. officials should not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs as they have committed to in the [1981] Algeria accord. They should recognize all Iranian rights including nuclear rights. And the United States should give up unilateral measures against Iran.”

Among the chief provisions of the Algeria accord between Iran and the US were that ‘The US would not intervene politically or militarily in Iranian internal affairs’ and ‘The US would remove a freeze on Iranian assets and trade sanctions on Iran’ both of which were violated by the US.

The surprise for internal and external observers was not only Rowhani’s alignment with Iran’s current foreign policy, but also that some hardline reformist media also failed to see a sign of a big change in internal affairs.

“I’m the president of all of Iranians,” Rowhani replied when a reformist reporter asked him to reward reformists who backed him in the presidential election.

“Firstly I appreciate all individual and parties who supported me in the election campaign but please don’t forget that I’m the president of all Iranians.”

Rowhani also refused to answer a couple of questions asked by reformist reporters about the two reformist leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi who are under house arrest since the post 2009 election unrest.

Rowhani’s reply to a reporter who insisted that Rowhani promise to invite Mohammad Reza Aref, the reformists’ candidate who quit the election race by request of Mr. Khatami was not clear and it seems Mr. Aref is still upset because the Reformist voters left him to support Rowhani. Aref said repeatedly in his election campaign that he does not recognize Rowhani as a reformist and he is the only candidate of the Reformists.

“I’ll invite all those qualified to cooperate with my government including Mr. Aref but it depends on Aref if he accepts the invitation, he may not be willing to be involved in my administration,” Rowhani said.

The post Don’t Expect Drastic Changes From Rowhani first appeared on .

Mohammad Reza Aref a reformist candidate in Iran’s upcoming presidential election announced his quit from the race in favor of the presidential candidate Hasan Rowhani who is strongly backed by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

“I quit from the election race because Mr. Khatami advised me to do so,” a statement of Aref published in his website read.

“Mr. Aref will abide by any decision taken by Mohammad Katami,” said Hasan Rasouli, Aref’s spokesman in an interview with Iran’s View on Monday.

“The Advisory Council of the Reformists headed by Mohammad Khatami was in charge of choosing a single candidate for the party,” he said.

Meanwhile Mohammad Reza Aref has repeatedly said he “will stand in the election race till the end.” He has even sworn this morning to not quit the race.

A few days ago his spokesperson told Iran’s View that Reformists chose Aref as the candidate for the party.

But it seems Hasan Rowhani and his supporters were successful to make Aref quit the race.

Hasan Rowhani a former secretary of Iran’s National Security Council and currently an envoy to the supreme leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei on the council is backed by Hashemi Rafsanjani the former two-term president of the country.

Aref is backed by the former president Mohammad Khatami who is a leader of the Iranian reformists.

In recent weeks the Reformists front witnessed hot debates between Khatami and Rafsanjani on choosing a single candidate for the Reformists in the presidential election.

Aref didn’t even recognize Rowhani as a reformist. Rowhani once during Khatami’s presidency signed a letter that conservatives wrote against him. In other hand, Khatami and his inner circle believe Rowhani would prefer Hashemi’s interests to the reformists’ approaches.

Anyway the Reformists’ success to have a single candidate is the worst news for the Principalists who have three candidates for the presidential election.

The Principalists failed to form a coalition and choose a single candidate so far. Although Gholam Ali Hadad Adel quit the race on Monday in favor of “all principalists” but given his low performance in the different polls it will not help the Principalists to compete against a strong reformist rival.

The three Principalist candidates who are unlikely to quit in favor of each other are: Saeed Jalili Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Tehran’s mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and former foriegn minister Ali Akbar Velayati

According to the polls and latest analysis after the withdrawal of Aref, Hasan Rowhani will have more than 20% of the ballot and will be competing with the Principalists’ front-runner Ghalibaf who has about 25% of the ballot.

Political observers in Tehran believe if the Principalists fail to form a coalition, Hasan Rowhani will attract a significant percent of the votes and will compete against Ghalibaf in the run-off round.

Iranians will cast their votes in the presidential election on Friday June 14th. A run-off round is expected as none of six remaining candidates are likely to gain 50% of ballots in polls.

The post Unified Iranian Reformists Behind Rowhani The Worst News For Principalists first appeared on .

Only one week to the Iran’s first presidential election since the 2009 election which president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won causing street unrest, currently all private polls by Iran’s intelligence ministry, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting organization and some other governmental organizations show Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Ali Akbar Velayati and Saeed Jalili all Principalists respectively will have the most votes. So Hasan Rowhani and Mohammad Reza Aref two reformist candidates, cannot even enter the run off round if the reformists don’t agree on a single candidate to stay in the race.

Unofficial but reliable polls either by governmental institutes or private institutes show each of the two reformist candidates can gain almost 8% of ballots, while Ghalibaf would win about 30% of ballots and Velayati and Jalili each have about 11% of votes.

Mohammad Reza Aref Vice President under Mohammad Khatami’s administration said several times during the last two weeks that he will “stay till the end” and he does not recognize Rowhani who is an envoy of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei in Iran’s National Security Council as a reformist.

But Rowhani’s campaign manager Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh said on Thursday that both Aref and Rowhani welcome a coalition and they are working on that.

On the same day Sayed Hadi Khamenei a prominent reformist figure and a key member of the reformist Association of Combatant Clerics said Mohammad Reza Aref is the representative of all reformists.

“Hassan Rowhani is not a reformist. The Council for Coordinating the Reformist Front supports Aref,” he said during the inauguration of Aref’s campaign headquarters in the city of Chanaran.

Aref’s spokesman complains about Rowhani’s refrain from accepting the decision to unify behind Aref 

Although an interview with Hasan Rasooli (a deputy of Mohammad Reza Aref) with Iran’sView on Thursday shows some developments in the reformist’s front.

“Reformists will gain a better result if Dr. Aref and Dr. Rowhani agree on a mechanism initiated by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami to determine a single candidate to remain in the race,” said Hasan Rasooli in an exclusive interview with Iran’sView.

Rasooli said Mohammad Khatami a key leader of the reformist front is trying to form a coalition.

The spokesman of Aref said the Reformist presidential candidate will welcome Khatami’s decision but he expects the decision to not be affected by “unreal inductions”.

“If Mr. Rowhani and his campaigners have more cooperation, we can reach a better result for the coalition,” this mild complaint from Rasooli can be a sign of Rowhani’s refrain from accepting the reformist leaders’ decision which seems to be a consensus on Aref as the candidate of the reformists.

Mohammad Khatami has a close relation with Aref, former vice president under Khatami’s administration. Aref also could gain a better result in polls compared to Rowhani.

On the other hand, Hashemi Rafsanjani a former two-term president of Iran and a powerful figure close to the reformists is closer to Hasan Rowhani. but Rowhani’s record as Iran’s top nuclear negotiator in talks with three European countries (Britain, France and Germany) which resulted in suspending all Iran’s nuclear activities is a weakness point of him that brings most attacks and critics of the Principalists.

This difference between the two most prominent reformist leaders maybe made the decision making more difficult. ”

“Anyways, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Khatami both will publicly support the final candidate of the reformists,” Aref’s deputy said in an exclusive interview with Iran’sView.

The post Khatami Trying To Unify Reformists Behind Aref first appeared on .

On the Commemoration of the 24th anniversary of the late founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Sayed Rohollah Mousavi Khomeini, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei delivered an important speech to a gathering of millions at the Imam Khomeini’s Mausoleum.

The leader of Iran explained Iran’s developments during the post revolution period and also talked about Iran’s June 14 presidential election.

“Before the Islamic revolution in Iran, [the west] had dictated to us that we are not able to run our country and develop scientifically,” Ayatollah Khamenei said on June 4th.

“Iran once extended her hands to foreign engineers for making roads, but today our youth make thousands of factories, dams, bridges and roads.”

“Our country was run by the US and Britain’s policies. Corrupt leaders were ruling this country but after the 1979 revolution, people’s representatives came in to power,” he said.

“We had not any scientific honor before the revolution, but now according to the international statistics, Iran’s growth rate in science and technology is 11 times more than the average growth of the world’s output.”

Reiterating on the necessity of keeping on Imam Khomeini’s path, he said, the late founder of the Islamic Republic left a road map for Iran to continue its revolutionary path.

“Imam Khomeni’s road map is his principals. The principals that could change an ashamed nation to a proud one,” Ayatollah Khamenei said.

“Imam Khomeini’s path in the internal politics were relying on the people and providing unity and avoiding aristocracy. According to Imam’s principals, authorities should be devoted to the interests of the nation and try for development,” he said while trying to outline an acceptable approach for Iran’s administration.

“On foreign policy, Imam’s behavior was [based on] standing against the domination policies [of the superpowers], [being] brotherly with Islamic nations, having relations will all countries but fighting against Zionism for the freedom of Palestine.”

“On the economy, Imam Khomeini’s path is to rely on national economy, self-sufficiency, economic justice in production and distribution, denying capitalistic culture and respect for work and trying for independence in the national economy,” Iran’s leader said.

Only 10 days to the election day, Iran’s leader explained the basic principles of the Islamic Republic in three main areas of domestic policy, foreign policy and economy.

These three areas are the main subjects of the 8 presidential candidate’s debate and campaign speeches. All candidates trying to present their approach to the important issues of foreign policy like the long standing nuclear dispute with the West,  and interaction with the USA and the Palestinian cause.

The economy of Iran is also affected by the US’ unilateral sanctions, so each of the presidential candidates proposes his solutions to reviving and developing the economy of the country. While some of the candidates from both principalists and reformist fronts suggest a better relation with the west as a solution to economic problems, others stress on the economy of resistance and avoiding capitalistic methods as the solution.

“Any vote to any of the 8 candidates is a vote for the Islamic Republic and the mechanism of the elections,” Iran’s leader said.

“Our poor enemies abroad want to create a threat [from the election] against the Islamic Republic while [the election] is an opportunity for us,”

“The enemies hope Iran’s elections will be cold and they create another sedition like what they did in 2009,” Ayatollah Khamenei said. “But they are mistaken. They didn’t know our nation. They forgot the [pro-government] rally in December 30, 2009.”

On December 30, 2009, millions of Iranian people participated in pro-government demonstrations took place in capital city of Tehran and all cities around the country to protest anti-government and anti-islamic demonstrations and violence following the 2009 presidential election.

Observers called the main rally in the capital possibly the largest crowd in the streets of Tehran since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s funeral in 1989. This demonstration was an end to the months of street violence and anti-government demonstrations.

“Those who think there is a majority in the opposition in the Islamic Republic should remember the huge crowds of people who rallied on the 22nd of Bahman [mass rallies take place each year to mark the anniversary of the victory of the 1979 Islamic Revolution] and they shout Death To the USA,” Iran’s leader said.

“The enemies’ think tanks are backing their media and political speakers to make lies and make Iran’s election atmosphere cold,” Ayatollah Khamenei said, “They say Iran’s election is not free and legal and is engineered. But they don’t know the Iranian nation, the government and its election [mechanism].”

Iran’s leader then described Iran’s election mechanism as the most democratic and free mechanism in the world and criticized elections in the capitalist countries where only a few people dependent on the power and wealth sources, can enter the race.

“Where in the world, [presidential] candidates are allowed to use national and government media freely and equally? Is it in the capitalist countries?” Ayatollah Khamenei asked.

“In the capitalist countries, only those candidates who are backed by the [main] political parties and power and wealth mafia can campaign.”

“The US elections endorse this idea. There were some candidates that had not supported Israel so they couldn’t enter the US election race,” Iran leader said. “But in our country all candidates freely and equally can talk with the people about different subjects.”

“In American elections anyone opposing Zionism cannot run. But In Iran candidates can talk to the people without spending even a Rial.”

He then denied reports of his support for a specific presidential candidate saying “I don’t endorse any one. I just say the facts and advise all candidates to speak fair and don’t deny the important achievements of the current and past administrations.”

“There are economic problems, god willing the next president will be able to solve the problems,” Iran’s leader said and called the economy as the main issue of the country and the enemies are using it to pressure the people and government.

“If the nation deals with its economy then the enemies will be defenseless when confronting Iran,” he said.

“Candidates must not prefer foreigners’ interests to the people’s interests. Some think we should compromise to lessen the anger of the enemy. But this is wrong.”

The post Iran’s Leader: Vote to Any of The Presidential Candidates is a Vote to The Islamic Republic first appeared on .

“Since Dr Jalili entered the election race his popularity rate has been on the rise. We think the rate would continue to rise until the election day,” said the spokesman of parliament’s National Security and foreign policy commission about Jalili’s popularity.

Responding to a question about the possibility of Jalili forming a coalition with other fundamentalist candidates (Ali Akbar Velayati, Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf), Naghavi said Jalili has entered the race as an independent fundamentalist candidate and doesn’t represent any party or political group, adding that he will continue his independent way.

He said Jalili doesn’t feel any threat from the reformist and independent candidates, believing that he would win the election at the first round. “We don’t think about the run off voting or even the possibility of the victory of a reformist candidate at all.”

According to Naghavi, Jalili is more devoted to the discourse of the Islamic Revolution, compared to his rivals, as he believes in resistance against the west rather than compromise or submission.

Jalili also believes that religious democracy should be propounded in the world as a political system and that Iran should reduce its dependence on hegemonic systems.

Foreign groups and the enemies of Iran do not have a positive view towards Jalili, Naghavi explained further. “The hegemonic powers and the groups that have been in war with our nation since the beginning of the Islamic Revolution are frightened by Jalili’s candidacy and thus continue the character assassination against him.”

They however had a similar negative view towards Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during the tenth presidential election in Iran. Until then, Mr. Ahmadinejad seemed to take positions in accordance to the preferences of the head of the country but after winning the election he did things that suggested he was at odds with the supreme leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei. This has made some political activist think that Saeed Jalili might follow Ahmadinejad in this regard.

But Naghavi rejects this possibility.”Dr. Jalili believes the final word is the Leader’s; not based on the status that the constitution regards for Wilayat al Faqih (the guardianship of the jurist), but because of his personal belief and faith.”

The head of Saeed Jalili’s presidential campaign in Tehran also rejected the claims about Jalili being “the government’s candidate”, arguing, “In the seventh presidential election similarly many claimed that Nategh Noori was the government’s candidate but people voted for Mohammad Khatami and he became the president for two terms. Today also the government considers all of the candidates approved by the Guardian Council suitable for presidency and it is the people who should vote and elect the best candidate as president.”

The post “World Powers Afraid of Jalili’s Candidacy”, Says Campaign Aide first appeared on .

An analysis based on the results of three surveys conducted by three reliable Iranian polling centers shows that none of Iran’s presidential candidates would gain enough votes to win outright on the first ballot.

More than 50 million Iranians will head to the polls on June 14th to determine Iran’s next president. Iran’s Guardian Council has approved eight candidates to compete in the poll. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote a runoff is scheduled to be held a week later.

According to the Analysis seen by Iran’sView, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, mayor of Tehran and a Principalist candidate, would win almost 27% of the votes and would be one of two competitors in any run off and the second competitor would be either Saeed Jalili, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator or Ali Akbar Velayati a top advisor to the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei.

11.7% of voters surveyed decided to vote in favor of Saeed Jalili and 11.3% for Ali Akbar Velayati, both Principalist candidates.

A similar survey conducted in the 2009 presidential elections gave accurate results.

This poll was carried out in late April on more than 400,000 people in 31 provinces throughout Iran.

More than 51% of eligible voters have decided to participate in the presidential elections. One out of five voters surveyed said they chose not to participate in the elections.

More than 56% of voters said they will vote for one of the four Principalist candidates.

Beside, Ghalibaf, Jalili and Velayati,  Gholam Ali Hadad-Adel, another Principalist candidate would gain 6.7%, Mohsen Rezaei and  Mohammad Gharazi two independent candidates would have respectively 6.7% and 0.7% of the ballots.

Of Iran’s two candidates in the Reformists camp 5.6% of voters surveyed said they would vote for Mohammad Reza Aref and 3.1% would vote for Hassan Rowhani.

 Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former two-term president of Iran was the most popular candidate associated with the reformists but he was disqualified by Iran’s Guardian Council due to his old age and therefore his inability to take the responsibility of being president.

The results of the surveys have not been publicized so far, but Iran’sView received an analysis paper based on the three reliable surveys.

The post Iran’s Election: Poll Results Suggest a 50% turnout and A Run Off Voting first appeared on .

The 78 year old politician, who entered with much hype and went away silently, caused a unity among Pincipalists at first, but his withdrawal created division.

They don’t think of Mohammad Reza Aref, Mohsen Rezaei, Hasan Rowhani and Mohammad Gharazi as serious opponents, so they don’t feel the need for unity.

Four Pincipalist candidates are Ali Akbar Velayati, Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf and Haddad Adel who are three members of the Progressive Coalition or the Coalition of 2+1 who seem to be open to Saeed Jalili joining them.

The members of the Progressive Coalition were supposed to reach a consensus on one candidate, based on polls and surveys. But even 20 days after the agreement, no one stood aside for the sake of the other two.

Ali Akbar Velayati

Velayati, an advisor to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei on International affairs, recently said “the three members of the coalition will keep campaigning and at a point before the voting day on June 14, we will decide who is going to be the final candidate.

He also said the decision by the Combatant Clergy Association and the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom (two highly influential clergy institutions in Iran) is highly capable of choosing the final candidate.

“The exact time of announcing the chosen candidate is not clear and depends on the coalition’s decision. Debates and talks will be held and they will decide by popularity, legitimacy and efficiency,” Shahin Mohammad Sadeghi, MP and the head of Velayati’s presidential campaign told Iran’sView.

He reiterated that the polls and surveys are just as important as the decision by the two important clergy institutions.

“Jalili’s involvement in the Progressive coalition is also relying on the decision by the coalition members. But the whole Principalist party is trying to reach an accord based on the decision of aforementioned institutions and public popularity,” he said.

Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf

Yet Qalibaf is not a fan of this idea. Because even though recent polls put him above Velayati and Haddad Adel, he will not have a chance with the two clergy institutions.

Gholam Ali Haddad Adel

Haddad Adel, former Speaker of the Majlis, said on Wednesday, “We think of Jalili as a Pincipalist and in case he joins our Progressive coalition only one of us will stand for presidency.”

Like Velayati, he believes in the final decision by the two clergy institutions, but “We also consider polls and we have to wait for the TV debates to assess the real outcome.”

It is not clear whether the coalition of 2+1will turn into 4, but Jalili hasn’t responded to the invitation by the coalition.

Saeed Jalili is known for being the chief nuclear negotiator among the public and has more votes from the Pincipalist party and other tough defenders of nuclear rights.

Head of the Hadad Adel presidential campaign, Hossein Nejabat has a different view from Sadeghi.

“When Mr.Velayati said [all members of the coalition] will campaign separately until the end, he did not mean campaigning until the voting day, but it might be the 6th or 7th of June,” he said in an interview with Iran’sView.

“The polls are taken one week before the election and will decide the fate of the progressive coalition. In fact, the coalition thinks public opinion is not shaped yet. They are waiting for the TV campaigns to decide on the final candidate. It is definite that three of them will not seek a spot on the ballot,” Nejabat said.

Nejabat also thinks differently about the decision of the two clergy institutions.

“Those institutions will not meddle in the election or decide on the final candidate,” he said, but “It is very important for the coalition that senior clerics are not against the final candidate so they are trying to be on the same path as them.”

He also denies inviting Jalili and says Hadad Adel did not invite him directly.

“A group of students asked Dr. Adel if he will accept Jalili as a member of the coalition if he stands for candidacy. Adel answered, if Jalili attracts a significant amount of voters we will consider his participation.”

Saeed Jalili

Bagheri Lankarani and Alireza Zakani withdrawal has boosted Jalili’s votes and gained him popularity but it seems that Jalili is not that willing to join the “Progressive Coalition”.

He is characterized by his firm stance on foreign policy, avoiding huge campaign expenditures and distancing himself from secular parts of society. This has distinguished him from other coalition members, especially Qalibaf.

Qalibaf and Velayati to some extent are not cynical about figures like Hashemi but Jalili is.

Even though he is more like Adel, because of his differences with Qalibaf, it is less likely that he will join the progressive coalition and this division will work for the benefit of the reformists.

If Qalibaf is to be the final candidate, many of Velayati and Adel supporters will abandon Qalibaf. Becuase Adel and Velayati to seem to think closer to Jalili.

We have to see if the possibility of the victory of the two independent candidates (Mohsen Reza’ei and Mohammad Gharazi) or the two Reformist candidates (Aref and Rowhani) will convince the Pinricpalists to set their differences aside or the elections will become more volite.

The post Iran’s Election: Principalists In Disarray After Hashemi Disqualified first appeared on .

Kadkhoda’ei said on Sunday in an interview with an Arabic-language news Channel of Iran, Alalam, that those who are only able to work a couple of hours a day are not suitable for a high ranking executive post. He also said, it’s possible that we consider physical health as a factor in our assessment, but it hasn’t been discussed so far.

Although he didn’t mention a specific person, his words were targeting Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and this made his supporters concerned. They knew about his old age, but they were counting on his influence and political experience.

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, 78, has already been a President for 8 years. But the Guardian Council may prevent him becoming a President for the 3rd time.

On registration day, Hashemi said that he would respect the Guardian Council’s decision. So if he gets disqualified, he should act accordingly even though the Reformists would lose the hope they had gained with Hashemi’s candidacy.

The Reformists’ front will scatter between Muhammad Reza Aref, Hassan Rowhani, Mohammad Shariatmadari, Masoud Pezeshkian, Mostafa Kavakebian and some other lesser known characters, of-course if they have chance to get qualified. Some reformists also will boycott the election without Hashemi in the race.

Eshaq Jahangiri didn’t register in time, so all eyes are on Aref. Maybe Hashemi’s rejection would make Aref even happier than the Principalists.

Mohammad Reza Aref 62, has been VP in the Khatami administration for 7 years. Despite the fact that he’s seen as an experienced figure, he couldn’t gain the support of some Reformist groups.

Hassan Rowhani’s situation is no better. He’s known as Hashemi’s representative, but he only has a small support from moderate Reformists and some politicians don’t even consider him as a Reformist.

Pezeshkian, a Minister in the Hashemi administration is not expected to gain a significant following.

The Reformists tough days are exasperated with unity among their opponents in the Principalists front. In the Principalists front Ali Akbar Aboutorabi announced his withdrawal. Some hours later, Bagheri Lankarani and a bit later Alireza Zakani withdrew in favor of Saeed Jalili, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator.

A lot of speculations around the political spectrum hinted Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel and Ali Akbar Velayati’s might withdraw in favor of Jalili, so the so called “Resistance against Sanctions” front would test the waters in the coming election.

With Hashemi’s rejection unless they compromise on a single candidate the Reformists will face a failure. Although even a single candidate couldn’t get the majority of Reformists’s votes.

Hashemi released his third election manifesto in which he said, for political impact, every political party should be present in the election. His words are interpreted as a reaction to the possible decision of the Guardian Council.

If the Guardian Council ignore Hashemi’s old age, we should expect different scenarios and the Reformists chance of victory will increase.

*Abdullah Almasi is the Editor in Chief of Iranian Jahannews.com news website.

The post What Will Happen To The Reformists if Hashemi Rafsanjani Gets Disqualified? first appeared on .

Iran’s coming Election is facing a new political controversy, not from the opposition or the “Reformists”, but from a party within the current Iranian Administration.

The Government’s critics believe that Esfandiar Rahim Mashaee who is the head of a party, which they label as “Deviant Current”. Mashaee who was the Chief of Staff in Ahmadinejad’s administration, left the office as Ahmadinejad suggested and became the head of the Non Aligned Movement Secretariat.

 Even though Mashaee hasn’t actually declared his candidacy, political activists suggest that his shared programs with the President are paving the way for his candidacy. Senior government officials don’t deny the relationship between Mashaee’s programs and the Presidential Elections.

Ahmadinejad, who cannot run for presidency because he was president for two consecutive terms, began a speaking tour around Iran in the beginning of the new Iranian year and Mashaee was present at each step.

In visits to Semnan and Isfahan provinces, Ahmadinejad symbolically offered the Islamic Republic’s flag to Mashaee and then gave the opportunity for Mashaee to speak out, and this caused discontent among some members of Iran’s Majlis, political activists and even high ranking military officials.

But the main objection from the “Principalists” and patriots towards those around the President are targeted at Mashaee and his cronies in 10th administration.

He also made controversial statements about “the end of the Islamic Era”. “The Islamic Era is over; we began the revolution in 1979 to promote our ideas to other countries, but I should say that the Islamic Era is over; this doesn’t mean that clinging to Islamic ideas will vanish, but the Era is over. Like the Era of horse riding is over, but we still have horses and horse riding and the Era of cars will come to an end, but there will still be cars and driving.” He said.

Mashaee was accused in 2011 to be part of a big banking embezzlement. One of the main suspects confessed to his hidden meeting with Mashaee. Thus far neither Mashaee, nor the administration has commented on the matter.

Government critics believe that the former Chief of Staff has influences above the law; He has influenced the acceptance of many important government recruits and also resignations and he doesn’t allow involvement of elites who are mostly oppose to his ideas, in the administration. Even though Mashaee denied all the accusations.

The Current administration is also accused of squandering pubic funds on Election campaigns, spending money on cultural programs (for the purpose of promoting the administration) without reason. But they have denied all of the accusations without giving any defense.

 The “Principalists” and other government critics initially thought of Mashaee as a rogue member of the administration. They began advising Ahmadinejad to put Mashaee aside, but after Ahmadinejad endless support of Mashaee, they implied that they are both on the same path and can’t be separated. Consistent praising of Mashaee by Ahmadinejad confirmed the thought. Ahmadinejad knew unfavorable judgments toward Mashaee will spark new criticisms and Critics saw this as arrogance.

 Judging by these facts Mashaee awaits an unknown faith. Because the conventional wisdom is that Mashaee will be denied entrance to the Presidential race by the Guardian Council.

Recent talks by the head of the Guardian Council supports this belief. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati was asked about how this Council handles those of the “deviant order” who want to enter the Presidential race.

“We act according to the law.” Jannati answered.

This is perhaps why there have been speculations about other possible candidates in case Mashaee gets rejected.

Gholam Hussein Elham, spokesperson of the current administration, Ali Nikzad Minister of Roads and Municipality, Ali Akbar Salehi the Foreign Minister and Rouhollah Kermani the former Vice President are among the list of possible candidates.

There are other possible candidates other than those mentioned, they are not socially recognized and we chose not to elaborate on them.

*Abdullah Almasi is the Editor in Chief of Iranian Jahannews.com news website.

The post Ahmadinejad’s Plans for the Presidential Election first appeared on .