Kadkhoda’ei said on Sunday in an interview with an Arabic-language news Channel of Iran, Alalam, that those who are only able to work a couple of hours a day are not suitable for a high ranking executive post. He also said, it’s possible that we consider physical health as a factor in our assessment, but it hasn’t been discussed so far.

Although he didn’t mention a specific person, his words were targeting Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and this made his supporters concerned. They knew about his old age, but they were counting on his influence and political experience.

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, 78, has already been a President for 8 years. But the Guardian Council may prevent him becoming a President for the 3rd time.

On registration day, Hashemi said that he would respect the Guardian Council’s decision. So if he gets disqualified, he should act accordingly even though the Reformists would lose the hope they had gained with Hashemi’s candidacy.

The Reformists’ front will scatter between Muhammad Reza Aref, Hassan Rowhani, Mohammad Shariatmadari, Masoud Pezeshkian, Mostafa Kavakebian and some other lesser known characters, of-course if they have chance to get qualified. Some reformists also will boycott the election without Hashemi in the race.

Eshaq Jahangiri didn’t register in time, so all eyes are on Aref. Maybe Hashemi’s rejection would make Aref even happier than the Principalists.

Mohammad Reza Aref 62, has been VP in the Khatami administration for 7 years. Despite the fact that he’s seen as an experienced figure, he couldn’t gain the support of some Reformist groups.

Hassan Rowhani’s situation is no better. He’s known as Hashemi’s representative, but he only has a small support from moderate Reformists and some politicians don’t even consider him as a Reformist.

Pezeshkian, a Minister in the Hashemi administration is not expected to gain a significant following.

The Reformists tough days are exasperated with unity among their opponents in the Principalists front. In the Principalists front Ali Akbar Aboutorabi announced his withdrawal. Some hours later, Bagheri Lankarani and a bit later Alireza Zakani withdrew in favor of Saeed Jalili, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator.

A lot of speculations around the political spectrum hinted Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel and Ali Akbar Velayati’s might withdraw in favor of Jalili, so the so called “Resistance against Sanctions” front would test the waters in the coming election.

With Hashemi’s rejection unless they compromise on a single candidate the Reformists will face a failure. Although even a single candidate couldn’t get the majority of Reformists’s votes.

Hashemi released his third election manifesto in which he said, for political impact, every political party should be present in the election. His words are interpreted as a reaction to the possible decision of the Guardian Council.

If the Guardian Council ignore Hashemi’s old age, we should expect different scenarios and the Reformists chance of victory will increase.

*Abdullah Almasi is the Editor in Chief of Iranian Jahannews.com news website.

The post What Will Happen To The Reformists if Hashemi Rafsanjani Gets Disqualified? first appeared on .

September 2010, when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced the first steps of a subsidy targeting plan through the state TV, he never have guessed that in less than 2 years, he would be inundated with censure.

Critics accuse him of not carrying out the reforms in the right way. They claim that he was oblivious to the laws passed by the Majlis and instead has put his own ideas into action. His actions resulted in high inflation, weakening of domestic producers and destabilizing the market.

Subsidy targeting is part of a five step, “Subsidy Reform Plan” in Iran.  According to the 2010 act of the Majlis, the government could gain revenue of billions of Rials by canceling subsidies for energy carriers and essential goods. According to the Majlis’ laws the government should have given 50% of the revenue to the people. 30% should have been given to the producers and the rest would have been for the government expenses. Most of the critics are targeting this issue. Critics are mostly supporters of the program, but they say the government gave the producers’ share to the people to raise the given cash subsidy.

Products have subsequently become more expensive, because of the increased cost of transportation. Those who couldn’t afford it laid off workers and canceled productions.

The Government has been blamed for being the main reason for inflation, unemployment and impairing the domestic producers. Accordingly the next phase of the subsidies which was supposed to come into action this year is still pending.

This has caused a debate among the upcoming Presidential candidates on how they are going to improve living conditions and finish the job of implementing subsidies:

Mohsen Rezaee, the Secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council and a candidate commented on this matter: I’m totally in favor of subsidy reforms. He even promised to raise the given cash subsidy 2.5 times.

Ali Akbar Velayati, a candidate from the so called “Advancement” or “2+1” coalition thinks differently: Every administration is obliged to continue the subsidies but only those with low income should receive the cash subsidy. We can exclude the well off from receiving it and put it into long term investments and fund the country’s economy.

Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Tehran’s mayor and a Principalist candidate believes that the Reform Act is not implemented correctly. But it is a vital necessity that should be continued.

Ghoal Ali Hadad-Adel thinks like his other Principalist friends. He believes that not allocating the subsidy to domestic production has caused serious problems. He also said that the given subsidy cash should be raised considerably.

Kamran Bagheri Lankarani and Alireza Zakani are among the anti-west figures. Lankarani said, he would continue subsidies, keeping a close eye on low income people and limiting the impact it has on the inflation.

Zakani suggested a 7-step program to implement the subsidies. He said we should know the target social group  because now the cash subsidy is distributed among the rich and poor evenly which is not equitable.

Reformists criticize the government on subsidy reforms. Muhammad Reza Aref, (VP in Khatami administration), Hasan Rowhani (head of the Center for Strategic Research), Mustafa Kavakebian (MP) and Masoud Pezeshkian (minister in Hashemi administration) are the best known Reformist candidates. But considering Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s candidacy they are likely to step aside in favor of him.

Hashemi hardly criticizes the Ahmadinejad administration on subsidy reforms and said subsidies should have strengthened producers and improved the country’s economy and agriculture. Instead it has caused inflation and devalued the national currency by giving money to the people.

Hashemi’s critics say he believes in the Capitalist model as he did in his 8 year presidency.

Esfandiar Rahim Mashaee thinks very differently on the issue. This controversial figure is considered a candidate supported by the government.

 He said I feel it’s my duty to continue Ahmadinejad’s policies.

He believes the implemented first step of subsidies had no negative consequences and the government was successful in controlling the inflation.

The conclusion

As we see different views among political parties and different individuals, implementing subsidies and the amount and distribution of cash subsidies will change unless Ahmadinejad’s protégé is elected.

Most of the government critics say it’s very likely that the producers and the low income people will receive a better portion of the cash subsidies.

The anti-Iran sanctions could have a direct impact on implementing the subsidies. Yet this may change according to the final winner’s view towards the West.

We should wait and see that which candidate, with what political and economic proposals will win.

The post Subsidies Are A Hot Election Issue In Iran first appeared on .

What are the reformists’ plans to solve 10 years of dissent on the nuclear issue? How do they perceive negotiations with the US? Could would-be candidates concur with senior officials in the Islamic Republic and the Supreme Leader? Is Iran’s approach to the US likely to change?

These questions are very important because of what the US is doing in the region and the difficult economic situation in Iran. US interests in Iran have a knock on effect on countries like Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Bahrain. So these countries’ futures are also at stake.

If and when the US acknowledges Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the UK, France and Germany would follow. China and Russia are already much softer with Iran. So the US’ green light would end political, economic, medicine and media sanctions against Iran.

A series of sanctions from the US and its European allies have generated cynicism among the Iranian people towards the West. They cherish their independence and reputation and to them it’s even more important than their wages.

The Reformist candidates claim they have a breakthrough plan to come to an accord on the nuclear issue.

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani

After Khatami’s refusal to become a candidate, the chance of Hashemi’s candidacy is increasing. He was both Iran’s president and the speaker of the Parliament. However, those close to him ruled out his candidacy, but his daughter confirmed he will become a candidate.

Reformists believe unlike other candidates, Hashemi with his high reputation can make major changes in the Islamic Republic and revive the Reformists’ position.

Hashemi is one of the harshest critics of the current administration’s foreign policy. He recently said: “[the Current administration] did badly in foreign policy,” referring to president Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric Hashemi added: “Some encourage confrontation and then claim that the sanctions are just ink on paper.”

 He believes that repealing sanctions against Iran is a difficult task and Iran should pay a lot in return.

“We’re not at a war with Israel, but we will help if Arabs invade the country.” he said.

On Iran’s nuclear issue Hashemi said: “the Supreme Leader’s Fatwa on banning nuclear weapons is more important than any political commitment and I believe if the West stops their illogical pressures, we wouldn’t have any problems using nuclear energy for medical, agricultural and electricity producing purposes.”

One of the most controversial comments of Hashemi was printed in a political journal earlier this year in which he said: “the US is the ultimate power. In our perception, what’s the difference between US and China, Russia and Europe? If we negotiate with them, why not negotiate with the US?”

Eshagh Jahangiri

Eshagh Jahangiri was the industry minister during Mohammad Khatami’s administration and a member of the “Laborers and Construction” party.

Jahangiri’s words are derived from Khatami’s statements and Hashemi’s to a certain degree. In an interview with a newspaper about the future of Reformists in the current elections he said: “I think the world will have a different view towards Reformists and a great deal of our problems in foreign policy will get solved no matter which Reformist candidate wins.”

Jahangiri in criticizing the Ahmadinejad administration said: “sanctions won’t get lifted easily. But [if we win the election] the world knows they are dealing with a wise team who believes in winning for both sides and interaction through diplomacy. In such circumstances, the world can’t bully us anymore, and they should talk in a sensible way.”

Hassan Rowhani

Hassan Rowhani is the head of the center for strategic studies for the country and an old companion of Hashemi.

Apparently, there are no differences between Hashemi and Rowhani in terms of foreign policy.

 “We have to restrain the hostility between Iran and the US. Iran is not meant to remain enemies with the US forever. We have to change this relationship in the right time, while preserving our national interests,” said Hasan Rowhani, now 64, who has been the secretary of the National Supreme Security Council and also in charge of Iran’s nuclear issue.

Pricipalists criticize Rowhani for halting nuclear enrichment in 2002.

When declaring his candidacy, he said: “If I get elected, I will change the path we’ve taken. We can use a better strategy in which we preserve our inalienable right, while getting along with the rest of the world. It’s clear that nuclear energy is our inalienable right, but other things are too. Like not being under sanctions and not having pressure on ordinary people. We want to achieve all these rights, not just one.”

Mohammad-Reza Aref

Mohammad-Reza Aref, 52, Vice President of Khatami’s second administration, a University professor and a politician is another Reformist candidate. He is close to Khatami but some believe he’s more of a soft touch than Khatami.

“We are obliged to defend our national rights in the world’s communities. We should interact with the world. But in our talks we should respect the right of other countries. We shouldn’t consider ourselves as the leader of the world and give suggestions to the world while we have a lot of problems in our own country. We are responsible for our country. We shouldn’t be weak in negotiations, so they won’t impose their will on us.”

Mostafa Kavakebian

Mostafa Kavakebian’s comments about the nuclear issue and negotiations with the US are probably the most interesting.

“I proposed a scheme to the Parliament with which we could normalise our relations with the US within 6 months and I’m sticking to my guns. Of course we should take note of our red lines,” said Kavakebian who has less chance of victory between the reformist candidates.

Conclusion

As we see, if Reformists were to win, Iran’s policy towards the nuclear issue and the way of dealing with US will likely change.

However it is possible that the Supreme Leader will use his authority to prevent the next president of changing the overall strategy of the Islamic Republic, yet a change in tactics dealing with the west on the nuclear issue is the least we can anticipate.

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