For Iranian reformists, the twin parliament and Assembly of Experts elections on February 26 were also a chance to blow new life to their presence in the power circle of the Islamic Republic which they lost after their rejection of the results of the 2009 presidential elections, leading to street riots and months of chaos in the capital city of Tehran.

Almost six years after those days, Reformists are cheering the election gains and are ecstatic about their unexpected wins in the ballot boxes and sweeping Principalists off parliament seats in the Tehran constituency.

However, the results in the other cities are different and both Principalists and Reformists have enough seats to be influential in the next parliament and the Assembly of Experts, but the fact that almost all of the Principalists’ prominent figures in Tehran failed to find their way into the Parliament (and in case of the Assembly of Experts, only Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati was elected ranking 16th out of the 16 seats reserved for the Tehran constituency) is a major blow to them which had the upper hand over the course of the past decade.

Though Reformists’ gain in the elections is also a result of their coalition with government supporters, known as the Moderates, as well as some moderate Principalist figures such as Ali Motahhari which led them to support coalition lists for the twin elections, the fact that Reformists could gain such a major support from the people is an undeniable reality for the political power sphere of the Islamic Republic and on the other hand this victory poses, at the same time, an opportunity and a threat for the winning Reformists.

Will Reformists seize the opportunity?

After 2009’s post-election disputes and street riots, many Reformist leaders were arrested and many of their aides who spurred the public into street riots had to flee the country; subsequently, the leadership in Iran lost its faith in the movement and to loyalty of prominent Reformist leaders. This lack of confidence in the Reformist movement and absence of its leaders and forces beside consecutive defeats in the national and local elections pushed reformist figures out of the political scene, minimizing their role.

After Hassan Rouhani won the 2013 presidential election, he tried to pave the way for the return of Reformists to the country’s political circle, while, he himself is not a Reformist and even was a serious critic of them while he served as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

The full participation of the reformists in the recent elections (even Reformists’ leaders under house arrest invited their supporters to participate in the elections) and then the results of the recent twin elections and especially the landslide victory of the Reformists in Tehran showed that the movement is coming back into the political sphere of the country and will revive its status as a legitimate game-changer.

Now, it’s about time for Reformist leaders to engage in direct talks with the political leadership of the system and to iron out misunderstandings and address the existing issues with them. Overestimating their reemerging power and making the same mistake of playing the role of staunch opponents of the Islamic Republic can lead them to a process which will not have better results than they gain in recent years. But a negotiated resolution not only will recreate the confidence and trust of the Islamic Republic to them but will secure their return to highest levels of the power in the country.

Dangers of a victory

If one was to study the voting pattern of the Iranians in last three decades, they would see Iranians mostly (if not always) make pragmatist decisions and never support a particular group because of their theoretical aims and promising rhetoric. Iranians evaluate the records of an official and after providing them enough time, they would decide to whether continue their support or terminate it. Unexpected victories of the Former reformist President Mohammad Khatami in 1997 and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 presidential elections are good examples of how different choices Iranian people can make due to their experience of the incumbent officials.

For this reason, Rouhani’s government- which turned to be a facilitator for the return of Reformism – will have a critical time for the rest of its tenure. Now the Parliament is also in line with the government and in case the government fails in fulfilling its promises, Principalists cannot be blamed as being the trouble makers! While people are hoping for a better economic situation after giving Rouhani more than two years to reach a nuclear deal, possible excessive concentration of Reformists on their political causes may undermine their ability to make significant and tangible changes in the life of ordinary people and so lose their votes in future Presidential elections, after less than two years.

In the words of the senior reformist leader Mohammadreza Aref during his campaign for the 2013 Presidential election, each time both government and the parliament was controlled by one party the outcome was not satisfactory.

Another threat to the Reformists is their inability in understanding the ordinary and the lower-classes especially in the small cities. They are the sources that provided Ahmadinejad with enough vote to win two Presidential elections against the robust rivals from the Reformist and Conservative circles. Today’s threat to Reformism is to make their usual mistake of confusing Tehran and large cities’ political tendency with national sentiments and ignoring lower- classes and ordinary people for who politics is not a priority.

Next presidential elections will be the scene of a critical completion between the Moderates/ Reformists who were controlling two important sources of power for at least two years and the Principalists who were out of power for the same period. I believe it will be the incumbent government’s economic record that will determine the next winner.

The post How Iranian Reformists’ Victory Can Turn Into Defeat? first appeared on .

Referring to the high turnout in Iran’s presidential election he said: “I’ve done my best to empower the Islamic Republic and now I need your help.”

Rowhani also met with Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and reformist figures Mohammad Khatami and Mohammad Reza Aref on Saturday.

Khatami Thanked The Supreme Leader Aytollah Khamenei

Former President and a leader of Reformist movement in Iran Khtami said in his meeting with Rowhani that “We should thank the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Khamenei] for his effort to create the grounds of the political epic.”

Rowhani Will Go to Majlis

Rowhani will go to Iran’ Majlis on Wednesday to Meet MPs and consult them about his cabinet.

Iran’s President-Elect To Visit Iraq and Senior Shia Clerics

The Iraqi Al-Dostour newspaper reported that Iran’s President-elect will travel to Iraq in early July to meet Shia senior clerics in Najaf.

According to the report, Rowhani will visit holy cities of Najaf and Karbala. Possibility of his meeting with Iraqi officials is unknown.

The post Iran Updates: Khatami Thanked The Supreme Leader, Rowhani Vowed To Empower The Islamic Republic first appeared on .

On Monday his answers were surprising for all observers.

Of course the election of Rowhani as Iran’s new president will make some changes on the country’s methods in dealing with internal and international issues but it is unrealistic if one expects Rowhani a moderate cleric to make substantial changes on Iran’s policies.

As IransView’s Abdullah Almasi explained earlier Rowhani is not a real reformist and lacked the popularity of the Reformists’ main candidate Mohammad Reza Aref whose followers ended up unifying behind the previously Fundamentalist Rowhani.

Following Rowhani’s victory in Iran’s Presidential election, western leaders reacted positively and expressed hope that Rowhani would take Iran on a ‘different course.’

“The expectations of the international community with regard to Iran are significant, especially about its nuclear programme and its involvement in Syria, ” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said in a statement shortly after Rowhani won the Iran’s election.

In the President-elect’s first press conference a reporter of France24 recalled the time that Mr. Rowhani as the Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council suspended Iran’s nuclear activities and asked whether he is ready to suspend nuclear enrichment again as a confidence building step. “That era is behind us,” Rowhani replied.

The decision of the Reformist government in 2004 (when Rowhani was Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator) to suspend all of Iran’s nuclear activities attracted a lot of criticism because the West failed to abide by its promises and to normalize Iran’s nuclear dossier.

In the last months of the Reformist government of Mohammad Khatami Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei ordered the reformist government to cancel the voluntary suspension of nuclear activities and later the Principalist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would win the election by promising to reactivate Iran’s nuclear activities in his campaigns.

Now after 8 years of significant progress in Iran’s peacefull nuclear program, Hassan

Rowhani says a suspension of nuclear activities is a step backward.

“Our nuclear programme is completely transparent,” Mr Rowhani said on Monday in his presser.

He also condemned sanctions against Iran by saying “The sanctions are unfair and our (nuclear) activities are legal. These sanctions are illegal and only benefit Israel.”

On Iran’s stance toward Syria also Rowhani showed no change from the past.

“Our stance on Syria will never change,” Rowhani said.

“The final decision-maker about the fate of Syria is the Syrian nation, we oppose terrorism and a civil war and that other countries want to interfere in Syria’s internal affairs.”

Regarding Iran-US relations Rowhani also did not show a significant difference to the stance of Ayatollah Khamenei.

The issue of “Iran’s relations with the United States is a complicated and difficult one,” said Rowhani, adding “anyway we will not pursue any escalation of tensions.”

“Any talks with the United States should be based on mutual respect and interests as well as being on an equal footing,” said Rowhani repeating the Supreme Leader’s words regarding the issue.

The resumption of negotiations with the United States has a number of pre- conditions,” Rowhani said on Monday in his first press conference.

“U.S. officials should not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs as they have committed to in the [1981] Algeria accord. They should recognize all Iranian rights including nuclear rights. And the United States should give up unilateral measures against Iran.”

Among the chief provisions of the Algeria accord between Iran and the US were that ‘The US would not intervene politically or militarily in Iranian internal affairs’ and ‘The US would remove a freeze on Iranian assets and trade sanctions on Iran’ both of which were violated by the US.

The surprise for internal and external observers was not only Rowhani’s alignment with Iran’s current foreign policy, but also that some hardline reformist media also failed to see a sign of a big change in internal affairs.

“I’m the president of all of Iranians,” Rowhani replied when a reformist reporter asked him to reward reformists who backed him in the presidential election.

“Firstly I appreciate all individual and parties who supported me in the election campaign but please don’t forget that I’m the president of all Iranians.”

Rowhani also refused to answer a couple of questions asked by reformist reporters about the two reformist leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi who are under house arrest since the post 2009 election unrest.

Rowhani’s reply to a reporter who insisted that Rowhani promise to invite Mohammad Reza Aref, the reformists’ candidate who quit the election race by request of Mr. Khatami was not clear and it seems Mr. Aref is still upset because the Reformist voters left him to support Rowhani. Aref said repeatedly in his election campaign that he does not recognize Rowhani as a reformist and he is the only candidate of the Reformists.

“I’ll invite all those qualified to cooperate with my government including Mr. Aref but it depends on Aref if he accepts the invitation, he may not be willing to be involved in my administration,” Rowhani said.

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Mohammad Reza Aref, as an “original reformist”, was expected to stay in the presidential race to the end. However, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s opinion and Rowhani having more votes than him led to a different fate for Aref, making him withdraw from the race despite his pledge.

Aref said his withdrwal from election was upon a request by Mohammad Khatami, the former reformist president under whom Aref was vice president. On Tuesday Khatami officially supported Rowhani in a statement.

But introducing Rowhani as the ultimate candidate for the reformist front in Iran, has surprised a lot of reformist observers. Since the revolution, Rowhani’s activities have never been appealing to the reformists, especially his activities during Khatami’s presidency.

He entered Iran’s parliament in 1981, and remained an MP for 5 rounds, being the deputy speaker in the fourth and fifth parliaments which were among the most fundamentalist parliaments in the Islamic Republic and in which the reformist were under much pressure.

He has been the Supreme Leader’s representative in the Iran’s Supreme National Security Council since its establishment.

Before being recognized as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Rowhani was and still is a member of the fundamentalist ” Combatant Clergy Association”,  ( Jame’e-ye Rowhaniyat-e Mobarez) the main rival of the reformist Assembly of Combatant Clerics (majma’-e rowhāniyūn-e mobārez), the spiritual father of the reformist movement.

Rowhani and The July 1999 Unrest

During the 1999 unrest when the reformist students came to the streets and their protest turned to violence, Rowhani condemned the protests harshly in a speech on July 14, calling the reformist protesters “villains”.

“If the officials had not prohibited, our people and our Muslim, brave, and revolutionary youth would deal with these villains in the severest way and punish them for what they did.”

As the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Rowhani also signed the order for house arrest of Ayatollah Montazeri, the spiritual leader of the reformists.

Rowhani’s Controversial Education

Rowhani, 55, who is a member of both the Expediency Discernment Council of the System and the Assembly of Experts said in his campaign that he got his Ph D. in Constitutional Law, at Glasgow Caledonian University, UK.

A British source, The Telegraph, however has questioned the claim.”A Glasgow Caledonian spokesman said the university was checking Mr Rowhani’s credentials but was unable to confirm them,” the Telegraph stated.

Rowhani’s campaign has not reacted to this claim yet.

Mr. Rowhani also studied in Qom’s religious Shia school and says he’s got the degree of diligence or “Ijtihad”. Ijtihad is considered as one of the highest religious levels among shias.

Why did Rowhani become the reformist’s ultimate candidate?

The most important question now is this: what happened that a non-reformist candidate is introduced as the reformist’s ultimate candidate? The most significant analysis points to a political bargain between Hashemi and Khatami to whose opinions Aref and Rowhani are faithful.

After the latest polls showed low votes for Rowhani and Aref compared to the fundamentalist candidates, Hashemi and Khatami agreed that one of the two candidates should quit in favor of the other. This compromise made Aref withdraw and Rowhani the reformist candidate.

Hashemi who was sure he would be disqualified by the Guardian Council entered the presidential race upon requests by Khatami and other reformists and bore all of the pressures as if the 80 years old politician only wanted to show his good will to Khatami. He did not even oppose to his disqualification and didn’t push for his re-qualification.

It however was a clever move by Hashemi as he expected Khatami to compensate for his sacrifice. Khatami responded to Hashemi’s political sacrifice by agreeing to introduce Rowhani as the ultimate candidate and make Aref withdraw.

Based on this, perhaps it can be said that Hassan Rowhani is Hashemi’s full-scale representative in the presidential election and this has resulted in some disputes among a group of reformists. They believe an original reformist like Aref should not have been sacrificed for Rowhani who is considered mostly as a fundamentalist.  

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Mohammad Reza Aref a reformist candidate in Iran’s upcoming presidential election announced his quit from the race in favor of the presidential candidate Hasan Rowhani who is strongly backed by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

“I quit from the election race because Mr. Khatami advised me to do so,” a statement of Aref published in his website read.

“Mr. Aref will abide by any decision taken by Mohammad Katami,” said Hasan Rasouli, Aref’s spokesman in an interview with Iran’s View on Monday.

“The Advisory Council of the Reformists headed by Mohammad Khatami was in charge of choosing a single candidate for the party,” he said.

Meanwhile Mohammad Reza Aref has repeatedly said he “will stand in the election race till the end.” He has even sworn this morning to not quit the race.

A few days ago his spokesperson told Iran’s View that Reformists chose Aref as the candidate for the party.

But it seems Hasan Rowhani and his supporters were successful to make Aref quit the race.

Hasan Rowhani a former secretary of Iran’s National Security Council and currently an envoy to the supreme leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei on the council is backed by Hashemi Rafsanjani the former two-term president of the country.

Aref is backed by the former president Mohammad Khatami who is a leader of the Iranian reformists.

In recent weeks the Reformists front witnessed hot debates between Khatami and Rafsanjani on choosing a single candidate for the Reformists in the presidential election.

Aref didn’t even recognize Rowhani as a reformist. Rowhani once during Khatami’s presidency signed a letter that conservatives wrote against him. In other hand, Khatami and his inner circle believe Rowhani would prefer Hashemi’s interests to the reformists’ approaches.

Anyway the Reformists’ success to have a single candidate is the worst news for the Principalists who have three candidates for the presidential election.

The Principalists failed to form a coalition and choose a single candidate so far. Although Gholam Ali Hadad Adel quit the race on Monday in favor of “all principalists” but given his low performance in the different polls it will not help the Principalists to compete against a strong reformist rival.

The three Principalist candidates who are unlikely to quit in favor of each other are: Saeed Jalili Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Tehran’s mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and former foriegn minister Ali Akbar Velayati

According to the polls and latest analysis after the withdrawal of Aref, Hasan Rowhani will have more than 20% of the ballot and will be competing with the Principalists’ front-runner Ghalibaf who has about 25% of the ballot.

Political observers in Tehran believe if the Principalists fail to form a coalition, Hasan Rowhani will attract a significant percent of the votes and will compete against Ghalibaf in the run-off round.

Iranians will cast their votes in the presidential election on Friday June 14th. A run-off round is expected as none of six remaining candidates are likely to gain 50% of ballots in polls.

The post Unified Iranian Reformists Behind Rowhani The Worst News For Principalists first appeared on .

Only one week to the Iran’s first presidential election since the 2009 election which president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won causing street unrest, currently all private polls by Iran’s intelligence ministry, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting organization and some other governmental organizations show Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Ali Akbar Velayati and Saeed Jalili all Principalists respectively will have the most votes. So Hasan Rowhani and Mohammad Reza Aref two reformist candidates, cannot even enter the run off round if the reformists don’t agree on a single candidate to stay in the race.

Unofficial but reliable polls either by governmental institutes or private institutes show each of the two reformist candidates can gain almost 8% of ballots, while Ghalibaf would win about 30% of ballots and Velayati and Jalili each have about 11% of votes.

Mohammad Reza Aref Vice President under Mohammad Khatami’s administration said several times during the last two weeks that he will “stay till the end” and he does not recognize Rowhani who is an envoy of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei in Iran’s National Security Council as a reformist.

But Rowhani’s campaign manager Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh said on Thursday that both Aref and Rowhani welcome a coalition and they are working on that.

On the same day Sayed Hadi Khamenei a prominent reformist figure and a key member of the reformist Association of Combatant Clerics said Mohammad Reza Aref is the representative of all reformists.

“Hassan Rowhani is not a reformist. The Council for Coordinating the Reformist Front supports Aref,” he said during the inauguration of Aref’s campaign headquarters in the city of Chanaran.

Aref’s spokesman complains about Rowhani’s refrain from accepting the decision to unify behind Aref 

Although an interview with Hasan Rasooli (a deputy of Mohammad Reza Aref) with Iran’sView on Thursday shows some developments in the reformist’s front.

“Reformists will gain a better result if Dr. Aref and Dr. Rowhani agree on a mechanism initiated by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami to determine a single candidate to remain in the race,” said Hasan Rasooli in an exclusive interview with Iran’sView.

Rasooli said Mohammad Khatami a key leader of the reformist front is trying to form a coalition.

The spokesman of Aref said the Reformist presidential candidate will welcome Khatami’s decision but he expects the decision to not be affected by “unreal inductions”.

“If Mr. Rowhani and his campaigners have more cooperation, we can reach a better result for the coalition,” this mild complaint from Rasooli can be a sign of Rowhani’s refrain from accepting the reformist leaders’ decision which seems to be a consensus on Aref as the candidate of the reformists.

Mohammad Khatami has a close relation with Aref, former vice president under Khatami’s administration. Aref also could gain a better result in polls compared to Rowhani.

On the other hand, Hashemi Rafsanjani a former two-term president of Iran and a powerful figure close to the reformists is closer to Hasan Rowhani. but Rowhani’s record as Iran’s top nuclear negotiator in talks with three European countries (Britain, France and Germany) which resulted in suspending all Iran’s nuclear activities is a weakness point of him that brings most attacks and critics of the Principalists.

This difference between the two most prominent reformist leaders maybe made the decision making more difficult. ”

“Anyways, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Khatami both will publicly support the final candidate of the reformists,” Aref’s deputy said in an exclusive interview with Iran’sView.

The post Khatami Trying To Unify Reformists Behind Aref first appeared on .

What are the reformists’ plans to solve 10 years of dissent on the nuclear issue? How do they perceive negotiations with the US? Could would-be candidates concur with senior officials in the Islamic Republic and the Supreme Leader? Is Iran’s approach to the US likely to change?

These questions are very important because of what the US is doing in the region and the difficult economic situation in Iran. US interests in Iran have a knock on effect on countries like Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Bahrain. So these countries’ futures are also at stake.

If and when the US acknowledges Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the UK, France and Germany would follow. China and Russia are already much softer with Iran. So the US’ green light would end political, economic, medicine and media sanctions against Iran.

A series of sanctions from the US and its European allies have generated cynicism among the Iranian people towards the West. They cherish their independence and reputation and to them it’s even more important than their wages.

The Reformist candidates claim they have a breakthrough plan to come to an accord on the nuclear issue.

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani

After Khatami’s refusal to become a candidate, the chance of Hashemi’s candidacy is increasing. He was both Iran’s president and the speaker of the Parliament. However, those close to him ruled out his candidacy, but his daughter confirmed he will become a candidate.

Reformists believe unlike other candidates, Hashemi with his high reputation can make major changes in the Islamic Republic and revive the Reformists’ position.

Hashemi is one of the harshest critics of the current administration’s foreign policy. He recently said: “[the Current administration] did badly in foreign policy,” referring to president Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric Hashemi added: “Some encourage confrontation and then claim that the sanctions are just ink on paper.”

 He believes that repealing sanctions against Iran is a difficult task and Iran should pay a lot in return.

“We’re not at a war with Israel, but we will help if Arabs invade the country.” he said.

On Iran’s nuclear issue Hashemi said: “the Supreme Leader’s Fatwa on banning nuclear weapons is more important than any political commitment and I believe if the West stops their illogical pressures, we wouldn’t have any problems using nuclear energy for medical, agricultural and electricity producing purposes.”

One of the most controversial comments of Hashemi was printed in a political journal earlier this year in which he said: “the US is the ultimate power. In our perception, what’s the difference between US and China, Russia and Europe? If we negotiate with them, why not negotiate with the US?”

Eshagh Jahangiri

Eshagh Jahangiri was the industry minister during Mohammad Khatami’s administration and a member of the “Laborers and Construction” party.

Jahangiri’s words are derived from Khatami’s statements and Hashemi’s to a certain degree. In an interview with a newspaper about the future of Reformists in the current elections he said: “I think the world will have a different view towards Reformists and a great deal of our problems in foreign policy will get solved no matter which Reformist candidate wins.”

Jahangiri in criticizing the Ahmadinejad administration said: “sanctions won’t get lifted easily. But [if we win the election] the world knows they are dealing with a wise team who believes in winning for both sides and interaction through diplomacy. In such circumstances, the world can’t bully us anymore, and they should talk in a sensible way.”

Hassan Rowhani

Hassan Rowhani is the head of the center for strategic studies for the country and an old companion of Hashemi.

Apparently, there are no differences between Hashemi and Rowhani in terms of foreign policy.

 “We have to restrain the hostility between Iran and the US. Iran is not meant to remain enemies with the US forever. We have to change this relationship in the right time, while preserving our national interests,” said Hasan Rowhani, now 64, who has been the secretary of the National Supreme Security Council and also in charge of Iran’s nuclear issue.

Pricipalists criticize Rowhani for halting nuclear enrichment in 2002.

When declaring his candidacy, he said: “If I get elected, I will change the path we’ve taken. We can use a better strategy in which we preserve our inalienable right, while getting along with the rest of the world. It’s clear that nuclear energy is our inalienable right, but other things are too. Like not being under sanctions and not having pressure on ordinary people. We want to achieve all these rights, not just one.”

Mohammad-Reza Aref

Mohammad-Reza Aref, 52, Vice President of Khatami’s second administration, a University professor and a politician is another Reformist candidate. He is close to Khatami but some believe he’s more of a soft touch than Khatami.

“We are obliged to defend our national rights in the world’s communities. We should interact with the world. But in our talks we should respect the right of other countries. We shouldn’t consider ourselves as the leader of the world and give suggestions to the world while we have a lot of problems in our own country. We are responsible for our country. We shouldn’t be weak in negotiations, so they won’t impose their will on us.”

Mostafa Kavakebian

Mostafa Kavakebian’s comments about the nuclear issue and negotiations with the US are probably the most interesting.

“I proposed a scheme to the Parliament with which we could normalise our relations with the US within 6 months and I’m sticking to my guns. Of course we should take note of our red lines,” said Kavakebian who has less chance of victory between the reformist candidates.

Conclusion

As we see, if Reformists were to win, Iran’s policy towards the nuclear issue and the way of dealing with US will likely change.

However it is possible that the Supreme Leader will use his authority to prevent the next president of changing the overall strategy of the Islamic Republic, yet a change in tactics dealing with the west on the nuclear issue is the least we can anticipate.

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