Iranians voted Friday in a presidential contest that pit President Hassan Rouhani against a serious challenger, Seyyed Ebrahim Raeisi, in an unexpectedly tight race. Election polls historically misses their mark and unable to correctly predict Iran elections’ results. The results of latest US presidential election also came as a surprise to nearly everyone. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at 70%! In such circumstances, many observers are casting doubt on the accuracy of public opinion polls.

“The war of polls is scientific on the face of it, but it is commonplace in actual fact which has no realist bases and standard criteria. In Iran, too, a big difference in the results of the polls of the two parties in the elections is indicative of the fact that none of them is blessed with pragmatic and scientific tools for opinion surveys. Moreover, performance of big institutions has been discredited many times, such as the presidential elections of 2005 and 2013. In both these elections, the polls had never given a chance for the candidates who won the elections in the end. As a result, the polls should be taken into consideration in a careful manner”, says Payam Fazlinejad, having cooperated with various reformist as well as Principlist press as a writer and analyst.

Pointing to the devastating effects of the war of polls, he said, “Lack of analytical power and power measurement are risky, and leave negative effects on the decisions of the campaigns in the remaining three days to the election day because some part of their political decisions are made in these days based on the very polls and surveys which has no scientific base. The trend can result in miscalculations in campaigns of both parties either prior or subsequent to the elections. It even may turn triumph into a complete failure in the long run. The outburst of news about such matters in the last days which are on the basis of these opinion polls may work against itself only if it is mixed with miscalculations. It can be the case for all the campaigns.

In response to the question of “How close are the predictions of the reformist and Principlist elites and statesmen to what the people, in general, believe about the winner of the elections?” Fazlinejad, who has the experience of working as a senior researcher in the institution Keyhan for ten years, said, “We should learn from the experience. The US elections in 2016 proved with certainty that prediction is irrational in actual fact. I believe in Churchill’s statements which is peculiar to Iran’s political society, ’A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen’. Iran is a complex society which no one can foretell its behavior and unfortunately, no attempt has been made in order to work on its predictability. For the purpose of making the society predictable, we are supposed to work out plans for developing political psychology as well as political sociology circles, but neither elites nor statesmen actually pay attention to such fields except for the night of the elections!

In response to the question of “What do you think are the wrong measures of both parties?”, he said, “Both parties have heavily invested in the cyberspace and social networks, but took no notice of the real society from the beginning. When the political activists restrict themselves to the cyberspace, their relationship with different social strata and their issues and concerns are reduced and they lose the power of creating a big social movement. Both parties have made their best in the last two weeks to keep their supporters away from the “cyberspace restriction” in social networks. They have developed plans such as sending representatives to far-off places, small towns and villages, but leading the supporters to social networks, and the distribution of news and analyses in internet media have resulted in the energy outburst far on in time.

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For Iranian reformists, the twin parliament and Assembly of Experts elections on February 26 were also a chance to blow new life to their presence in the power circle of the Islamic Republic which they lost after their rejection of the results of the 2009 presidential elections, leading to street riots and months of chaos in the capital city of Tehran.

Almost six years after those days, Reformists are cheering the election gains and are ecstatic about their unexpected wins in the ballot boxes and sweeping Principalists off parliament seats in the Tehran constituency.

However, the results in the other cities are different and both Principalists and Reformists have enough seats to be influential in the next parliament and the Assembly of Experts, but the fact that almost all of the Principalists’ prominent figures in Tehran failed to find their way into the Parliament (and in case of the Assembly of Experts, only Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati was elected ranking 16th out of the 16 seats reserved for the Tehran constituency) is a major blow to them which had the upper hand over the course of the past decade.

Though Reformists’ gain in the elections is also a result of their coalition with government supporters, known as the Moderates, as well as some moderate Principalist figures such as Ali Motahhari which led them to support coalition lists for the twin elections, the fact that Reformists could gain such a major support from the people is an undeniable reality for the political power sphere of the Islamic Republic and on the other hand this victory poses, at the same time, an opportunity and a threat for the winning Reformists.

Will Reformists seize the opportunity?

After 2009’s post-election disputes and street riots, many Reformist leaders were arrested and many of their aides who spurred the public into street riots had to flee the country; subsequently, the leadership in Iran lost its faith in the movement and to loyalty of prominent Reformist leaders. This lack of confidence in the Reformist movement and absence of its leaders and forces beside consecutive defeats in the national and local elections pushed reformist figures out of the political scene, minimizing their role.

After Hassan Rouhani won the 2013 presidential election, he tried to pave the way for the return of Reformists to the country’s political circle, while, he himself is not a Reformist and even was a serious critic of them while he served as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

The full participation of the reformists in the recent elections (even Reformists’ leaders under house arrest invited their supporters to participate in the elections) and then the results of the recent twin elections and especially the landslide victory of the Reformists in Tehran showed that the movement is coming back into the political sphere of the country and will revive its status as a legitimate game-changer.

Now, it’s about time for Reformist leaders to engage in direct talks with the political leadership of the system and to iron out misunderstandings and address the existing issues with them. Overestimating their reemerging power and making the same mistake of playing the role of staunch opponents of the Islamic Republic can lead them to a process which will not have better results than they gain in recent years. But a negotiated resolution not only will recreate the confidence and trust of the Islamic Republic to them but will secure their return to highest levels of the power in the country.

Dangers of a victory

If one was to study the voting pattern of the Iranians in last three decades, they would see Iranians mostly (if not always) make pragmatist decisions and never support a particular group because of their theoretical aims and promising rhetoric. Iranians evaluate the records of an official and after providing them enough time, they would decide to whether continue their support or terminate it. Unexpected victories of the Former reformist President Mohammad Khatami in 1997 and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 presidential elections are good examples of how different choices Iranian people can make due to their experience of the incumbent officials.

For this reason, Rouhani’s government- which turned to be a facilitator for the return of Reformism – will have a critical time for the rest of its tenure. Now the Parliament is also in line with the government and in case the government fails in fulfilling its promises, Principalists cannot be blamed as being the trouble makers! While people are hoping for a better economic situation after giving Rouhani more than two years to reach a nuclear deal, possible excessive concentration of Reformists on their political causes may undermine their ability to make significant and tangible changes in the life of ordinary people and so lose their votes in future Presidential elections, after less than two years.

In the words of the senior reformist leader Mohammadreza Aref during his campaign for the 2013 Presidential election, each time both government and the parliament was controlled by one party the outcome was not satisfactory.

Another threat to the Reformists is their inability in understanding the ordinary and the lower-classes especially in the small cities. They are the sources that provided Ahmadinejad with enough vote to win two Presidential elections against the robust rivals from the Reformist and Conservative circles. Today’s threat to Reformism is to make their usual mistake of confusing Tehran and large cities’ political tendency with national sentiments and ignoring lower- classes and ordinary people for who politics is not a priority.

Next presidential elections will be the scene of a critical completion between the Moderates/ Reformists who were controlling two important sources of power for at least two years and the Principalists who were out of power for the same period. I believe it will be the incumbent government’s economic record that will determine the next winner.

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However, above all dissatisfactions of the plan exerted by various concerning groups in Iran is the Rouhani administration’s failure to convince the leadership that the deal was a success for Tehran, the new US sanctions against the country have been intensified in the months that followed the deal and the US officials tend to use threatening rhetoric when dealing with Iran. Prior to the Geneva talks, the negotiating team, and of course Rouhan, enjoyed the Supreme Leader’s full support when he described them as ‘sons of the Revolution’.

A day before the talks in Vienna begun, the Leader, addressing large mass of Iranians, openly talked about his discord with the negotiation’s process.

“Some of the officials from of the previous and current administration believe that we have to talk to the US to resolve the nuclear issue,” he said. “Ok, then. We said go ahead and talk to them about this specific topic, but I said in my speech at the beginning of the current Iranian calendar year that I would not disagree with such talks while I am not optimistic about its outcome. Now, look at their ludicrous remarks [against Iran],” Ayatollah Khamenei said.

The Leader’s remarks came following his prolonged discussions with the Rouhani administration and the nuclear team about Iran’s promises in the Geneva deal which limited a vast part of its nuclear activities. The promises are believed to be detrimental to the progress of Iran’s nuclear program; however, the Leader insists that Tehran should be committed to them because he knows that failing to observe them would make things even worse for Iran.

“What the Foreign Ministry has started will be continued, Iran will not violate its commitments but I am saying now it will not get anywhere,” he said on Monday.

Anyway it seems that Foreign Minister Zarif accepted some of the criticism and is willing to try to satisfy some of them in the Vienna talks. 

Iran’s Leader favors a resolution at the end of the talks which allows Iran to pursue an industrial enrichment program. Moreover, the exact number of active centrifuges and the fate of Arak Heavy-water facilities should also be discussed in the talks.

The fact is that most of the critics of the Geneva deal in Tehran maintain that the Iranian negotiating team has missed many privileges in the talks so far like 20% enrichment and annihilation of the reserves. Policy makers in Tehran believe that that a proper final agreement should contain transparency procedures rather than mechanisms to confine its progress. The agreement should also link and unify Iran’s talks with the IAEA with the P5+1.

Negotiation in Vienna are more difficult for Mohammad-Javad Zarif and his team who are trying to prove their ability to acquire not a deal but a “good deal” that can be sold at home. They may believe that the Iran’s leader’s New Year Speech, less than two month later, maybe kind of ultimatum for them.

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This Article is originally published in Al-Monitor

The phone conversation between US President Barack Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, during the final hours of Rouhani’s visit to New York, was unexpected enough to dominate the media spheres of both Iran and the United States. The reactions of the Iranian people have been significant and mostly positive. Even the Principlists and conservatives, whose ideology is not similar to that of Rouhani, have not reacted negatively to Rouhani’s diplomacy or that of his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, in New York.

Before Rouhani’s trip to New York, to participate in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had granted permission for positive signals and “heroic flexibility.” This resulted in the majority of the Principlists, conservatives and even the members, or sepah, of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) supporting — or at least not opposing — the government’s actions. Although a small number of extremists attacked Rouhani upon his return at Mehrabad Airport, these people are so isolated that even the Principlists criticize them.
The jokes being exchanged in the streets of Tehran, on the morning of Sept. 28, show that the residents of the capital are awaiting the continuation of the process which started in New York. “I will open a McDonalds and Kentucky Fried Chicken franchise in Tehran,” joked Tehran resident Arash, 27. “This time next year, I will fly directly to New York, and I will buy an iPhone 6 from the Apple store,” tweeted Hussein Allayee, a computer engineer, considering the possibility of the political relationship between Iran and the United States being restored.The markets of Iran, however, reacted more conservatively compared to the previous times. Tehran’s stock exchange continued a paced growth for the past few days: the dollar market initially dropped, then went up and finally returned to the price it was on Sept. 26.Iranians in general reacted very quickly, became emotional really fast and just as rapidly lost their interest and got bored. This positive atmosphere — which is the result of the discussions between the foreign ministers, and the presidents, of Iran and the Unites States — will soon be replaced with demands for tangible results. However, any informed political observant knows that solving the problems and misunderstandings between Iran and the United States requires long negotiations and discussions.

Read this article in Full here.

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According to the informed sources talked to Iran’sView, the new Iranian President, Hassan Rowhani, perceived to have won the June-14 elections by his moderation promises, is said to have requested the Leader to give him a modest free hand in the country’s foreign policy affairs, including the prolonged nuclear standoff, so that he will be able to tackle the Islamic Republic’s economic problems to some extent.

It is years now that Tehran is at odds with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) over its nuclear case due to irreconcilable views of the negotiating sides.

According to a Rouhani aide who has spoke to Iran’sView on condition of anonymity, he has promised the Supreme Leader he will be able to scrape a large part of the stifling sanctions imposed on Iran without damaging the nature of its nuclear program provided that the Leader permits the president to act more flexibly in the talks with the P5+1.

“I would agree with what I once called ‘heroic flexibility’, as it is a proper move at times,” said the Leader during his address to the Sepah commanders on Tuesday, seems to be an explicitly agreeing to the administration’s request. However, he cautioned the president to be wary of the “other side and the chief objective” in the talks while being more flexible.

Though this was not the first time the Supreme Leader spoke of “heroic flexibility”.

“Artistic and heroic flexibility, softness and maneuver are accepted and welcome in all political grounds,” said the Leader in another meeting a fortnight ago with members of the Assembly of Experts. “But maneuvers should not be interpreted as a leave to cross the red lines or step back of fundamental strategies or neglecting the ideals.”

The Leader of Iran is still suspicious about the flexibility in international dealings of the new administration as it might be induced to cross some red lines (like direct and comprehensive talks with the US) or retreat from fundamental strategies of the Islamic Republic (like supporting Palestinian cause and the Syrian government as part of the resistance front).

The Leader once again reminded the administration in his Tuesday speech that it is not allowed to neglect the “objectives and ideals” of the Islamic Revolution with excuses like “The world or the trends has changed.”

According to political observers in Tehran, the Supreme Leader has allowed the administration to expand ties with European countries, engage in direct talks with the US over the Syrian conflict, and show more flexibility in nuclear talks. The Leader has decided to let Rouhani have his try in various fields, even though he (the Leader) is not optimistic about the West’s reaction to Iran’s flexible tone; which is why the Leader stressed in his Tuesday speech that the US and the West are seeking much greatest goals in Iran’s nuclear case and that it should be taken in and well analyzed by “challenging the hegemonic system by the Islamic Revolution”.

“We do not approve of nuclear weapons not because of the US or others, but because of our beliefs; when we say no one can have nuclear weapons, we would never seek such weapons ourselves; the dissenters of Iran are after something else. These countries would never let their nuclear energy monopoly be broken,” Ayatollah Khamenei said on Tuesday.

“Diplomacy is the field of smile and calls for talks and negotiations; however, all these should be defined in the framework of our major challenge.”

Ayatollah Khamenei has repeatedly cautioned the new administration against the Islamic Republic’s red lines and fundamentals while exhibiting flexibility in its foreign dealings. In his earlier speech addressing members of the Assembly of Experts, the Leader certified that every “administration or person has their own methods and innovations, and are allowed to practice them in their work.”

As a key player in Iran’s power struggle during the past 34 years, the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, or Sepah, has aligned itself well with the Supreme Leader’s directions, and stood up to administrations which fail to follow the Leader’s directions. Besides, the construction projects as well as economic activities run by the Sepah are a powerful lever that can help every administration to materialize their domestic policies; which may be why the President Rowhani addressed Sepah commanders a day before the Leader to ask them to support the administration economically.

With regard to Rowhani’s concerns about acceptance of his “flexible” policies by Sepah commanders, the Supreme Leader called on Sepah top brass to temporarily step out of politics and view the developments from outside.

“Sepah is not required to meddle in political grounds, but guardianship of the Revolution needs precise understanding of realities,” the Leader said on Tuesday.

“The organization that is deemed as the Revolution’s guardian arm cannot be expected to be alien to derivative political currents,” said the Leader, stressing that under the current circumstances Sepah must, of course, identify and counter all adversaries of the Islamic Republic.

The Leader is evidently giving the administration a free hand to remedy the country’s economic and political headache by putting into effect its innovations. Likewise the Leader would be happy see that his strategic decision has helped the administration manage to fulfill its promises and receive a palatable feedback from foreigners. However, if the government fails to get the desired response from the West by being more flexible, just like the Reformist administration of Mohammad Khatami, the Leader’s warnings and pessimism against the US and enemies will be well substantiated. 

“The revolution’s future is glorious for sure, but the time of its happening depends of the performance of the nation and officials. If we are united, integrated and decisive, such a future is soon realized, but if we are infested with indolence, arrogance and other such stuff, that future will be late to come.” Ayatollah Khamenei said to the top commanders of Sepah.

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In response to a question asked by one of the student about the aftermath of the 2009 presidential election, Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei urged that the main figures behind the election unrest  should not be forgotten, emphasizing that although many made mistakes during the unrest, the main issue was violation of law and street riots.

After the reformist-backed Hassan Rowhani won the 2013 presidential election, a number of so-called reformist figures and media demanded the freedom of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, two 2009 presidential candidates who are under house arrest for inviting people to street riots.

“The main issue should not be lost. Well, in 2009 election those who claimed fraud in the election why did called on people to come to streets to deal with the alleged cheating? Why don’t they answer this question?”

For the first time, Ayatollah Khamenei also talked about having private talks with the two candidates without mentioning their names. “We asked them many several times in non-public gatherings but they didn’t have any response. So why don’t they apologize? In private meetings they say we confess there was no fraud [in the 2009 election]. Well, if there was no cheating why did you brought all the disasters for the country. Why did you impose all the costs to the country?”

He warned that the 2009 unrest in Iran could have led to bloody conflicts like what currently is taking place in Egypt. “Had God not helped and people had fought each other, do you know what would have happened? Today you see in the countries in the region where people fight each other what happens. They led the country to the brink of such a precipice. God didn’t let that happen, the nation also had insight. This is the main issue of 2009 events.”

The MP Ali Motahari also demanded the clarification of the fate of Mousavi and Karroubi, pointing to the “national reconciliation” created as a result of the recent election. He also demanded “the removal of the effects of the 2009 crisis”.

But Iran’s leader has set two main conditions for forgiving Mousavi and Karroubi, “apologizing to the nation” and “publicly confessing that there was no vote fraud in 2009 election”.

Ayatollah khamenei also pointed to the strategy of the Islamic Republic in the region, emphasizing that Iran’s supports and policies about the regional events in most cases guarantees the internal stability of the country.

“The events you see happening in Egypt and some other places show Islamic Awakening exists in these countries but it wasn’t managed well, they acted naïvely. The scene in Egypt is a very painful scene. It is very painful for us who observe. This happened because of the mistakes. Some things should not have been done, some things should have been done but were not. The Arrogant Powers are in a strange lining today, making a long front against this awakening.

“When observing the regional events, one notices something and that is the deep strategy of the Islamic Republic in these regions. There are events that count like roots and means of stability or holding ropes of the tent for the inside [of the country]. This is deep strategy with which the Arrogant System is anxiously fighting, with no result so far and no result in the future.”

“They have a wrong understanding of our deep strategy and what they are doing is wrong,” Khamenei added.

In response to a student who asked about the motto of the president-elect, “the moderation policy”, the leader said the president himself is going to define “the moderation” and people can judge it then. He reiterated his support for Rowhani and the future government, reacting to the criticism against the president-elect. “I don’t oppose criticism but note that first, criticism is different from reproaching, and second, he must be given a chance to work.”

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“True approaches of the revolution set by Imam Khomeini are clear and there’s no need to re-evaluate,” he said on Sunday.

Ayatollah Khamenei once again criticized the post 2009 election street riots and said: “Power transition in Iran was always calm and smooth, except for 2009 in which some people made blunders and pushed the country on the verge of collapse.”

“The Islamic Republic and the Iranian nation proposed a new model to the world; a healthy power transition without the common tricks in the west,” He added.

The Leader Defends Ahmadinejad’s Records

At the beginning of the session, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad read the report on what has been done in his 8 years of presidency.

Ayatollah Khamenei implicitly criticized some remarks by reformists against Ahmadinejad.

Newly elected president Hassan Rowhani was also present in the session. Ayatollah Khamenei’s remark to the next administration revealed that the Leader is not content with reformists cruel criticizing Ahmadinejad’s administration and believes that Ahmadinejad made more good in his administration than his failures.

“Every administration should take a positive look at his predecessor. It is worthy that the next administration shows as much enthusiasm and energy as the previous one.”

Stressing on the Diplomacy of Resistance

He also noted actions of some of the foreign countries against Iran, saying “Arrogant powers, some western leaders and some weak regional leaders formed a huge front against Iran that has not been done against any other country,”

“We have to be patient and resist the enemy front. We have to strengthen our national and domestic power to continue our advancement and reaching Idealistic goals,” Ayatollah Khamenei said.

He insisted on officials not to recoil on foreign pressures and said: “Our officials shouldn’t hesitate when facing political, economic and propaganda pressures by the enemies,”

“Senior officials, law makers and all officials in the country should focus on two main priorities which are economic issues and scientific advancement.”

“Our pace in scientific advancement in the past 10 years was very significant but we shouldn’t slow down. Because we have to keep pace to reach the front lines of science in the world.”

Interactions With the World is OK but US Proved We Shouldn’t Be Optimistic

“We have always believed in the interaction with the world but any interaction must be based on a proper recognition of the other side,” he said.

He reiterated the importance of noting other countries’ history with Iran and said: “When interacting with the world, we should not forget our enemy’s history; even if we don’t speak of it for some reasons.”

“I have previoulsy said that I’m not optimistic about direct talks, even though I didn’t bar direct talks in special circumstances like in Iraq.” said the Supreme Leader regarding recent remarks by US officials for direct talks.

“US officials are untrustworthy and not logical and not honest,” he said.

“US officials’ remarks in the past several months show that we shouldn’t be optimistic,” He added.

Hassan Rowhani said several times that he’s after improving relations with the world.

We can take the Leader’s remarks about interaction with the world as a rule of law for the next administration

“One should continue his path in global interaction without being stopped by enemies and it is harmful to make a U turn when interacting with the world.”

The post Iran’s Leader Sets The Tone For The Rowhani’s Administration first appeared on .

– This election was a response to all the accusations against the Islamic Republic and its purity.

 – Islamic Republic’s founder taught us that the country should be ruled by people according to Islamic laws.

 – Iranians chose a new path. The future administration should act according to the will majority of voters. Iranians voted for moderation and logic.

– I’ve heard many people who didn’t vote that they are sorry that they didn’t participate in the glorious election. They usually say they didn’t know it was going to turn out like this.

On the next administration’s approach:

– The future administration should avoid extremism. Iranians demanded national unity.  People demanded implementing the law. The government is obliged to treat people equally according to law.

 – Moderation should be present in every aspect of the country.

– I have discussed with the President Ahmadinejad to facilitate the transition process.

-The future administration is faithful to its promises. This administration is not from one political faction and is not committed to one party. I welcome every politician from any political faction, only if they are moderate.

On the Foreign Policy:

 -We are facing a unique situation in our foreign policy. Our foreign policy is neither a contentiousness nor animosity.

– We have to cooperate with other countries according to our mutual interests. We have to take confidence building steps.

Excerpts collected from our partner NasimOnline.

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