Mohammad Reza Aref, as an “original reformist”, was expected to stay in the presidential race to the end. However, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s opinion and Rowhani having more votes than him led to a different fate for Aref, making him withdraw from the race despite his pledge.

Aref said his withdrwal from election was upon a request by Mohammad Khatami, the former reformist president under whom Aref was vice president. On Tuesday Khatami officially supported Rowhani in a statement.

But introducing Rowhani as the ultimate candidate for the reformist front in Iran, has surprised a lot of reformist observers. Since the revolution, Rowhani’s activities have never been appealing to the reformists, especially his activities during Khatami’s presidency.

He entered Iran’s parliament in 1981, and remained an MP for 5 rounds, being the deputy speaker in the fourth and fifth parliaments which were among the most fundamentalist parliaments in the Islamic Republic and in which the reformist were under much pressure.

He has been the Supreme Leader’s representative in the Iran’s Supreme National Security Council since its establishment.

Before being recognized as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Rowhani was and still is a member of the fundamentalist ” Combatant Clergy Association”,  ( Jame’e-ye Rowhaniyat-e Mobarez) the main rival of the reformist Assembly of Combatant Clerics (majma’-e rowhāniyūn-e mobārez), the spiritual father of the reformist movement.

Rowhani and The July 1999 Unrest

During the 1999 unrest when the reformist students came to the streets and their protest turned to violence, Rowhani condemned the protests harshly in a speech on July 14, calling the reformist protesters “villains”.

“If the officials had not prohibited, our people and our Muslim, brave, and revolutionary youth would deal with these villains in the severest way and punish them for what they did.”

As the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Rowhani also signed the order for house arrest of Ayatollah Montazeri, the spiritual leader of the reformists.

Rowhani’s Controversial Education

Rowhani, 55, who is a member of both the Expediency Discernment Council of the System and the Assembly of Experts said in his campaign that he got his Ph D. in Constitutional Law, at Glasgow Caledonian University, UK.

A British source, The Telegraph, however has questioned the claim.”A Glasgow Caledonian spokesman said the university was checking Mr Rowhani’s credentials but was unable to confirm them,” the Telegraph stated.

Rowhani’s campaign has not reacted to this claim yet.

Mr. Rowhani also studied in Qom’s religious Shia school and says he’s got the degree of diligence or “Ijtihad”. Ijtihad is considered as one of the highest religious levels among shias.

Why did Rowhani become the reformist’s ultimate candidate?

The most important question now is this: what happened that a non-reformist candidate is introduced as the reformist’s ultimate candidate? The most significant analysis points to a political bargain between Hashemi and Khatami to whose opinions Aref and Rowhani are faithful.

After the latest polls showed low votes for Rowhani and Aref compared to the fundamentalist candidates, Hashemi and Khatami agreed that one of the two candidates should quit in favor of the other. This compromise made Aref withdraw and Rowhani the reformist candidate.

Hashemi who was sure he would be disqualified by the Guardian Council entered the presidential race upon requests by Khatami and other reformists and bore all of the pressures as if the 80 years old politician only wanted to show his good will to Khatami. He did not even oppose to his disqualification and didn’t push for his re-qualification.

It however was a clever move by Hashemi as he expected Khatami to compensate for his sacrifice. Khatami responded to Hashemi’s political sacrifice by agreeing to introduce Rowhani as the ultimate candidate and make Aref withdraw.

Based on this, perhaps it can be said that Hassan Rowhani is Hashemi’s full-scale representative in the presidential election and this has resulted in some disputes among a group of reformists. They believe an original reformist like Aref should not have been sacrificed for Rowhani who is considered mostly as a fundamentalist.  

The post How Did The Fundementalist Rowhani Become The Reformists’ Ultimate Candidate? first appeared on .

Kadkhoda’ei said on Sunday in an interview with an Arabic-language news Channel of Iran, Alalam, that those who are only able to work a couple of hours a day are not suitable for a high ranking executive post. He also said, it’s possible that we consider physical health as a factor in our assessment, but it hasn’t been discussed so far.

Although he didn’t mention a specific person, his words were targeting Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and this made his supporters concerned. They knew about his old age, but they were counting on his influence and political experience.

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, 78, has already been a President for 8 years. But the Guardian Council may prevent him becoming a President for the 3rd time.

On registration day, Hashemi said that he would respect the Guardian Council’s decision. So if he gets disqualified, he should act accordingly even though the Reformists would lose the hope they had gained with Hashemi’s candidacy.

The Reformists’ front will scatter between Muhammad Reza Aref, Hassan Rowhani, Mohammad Shariatmadari, Masoud Pezeshkian, Mostafa Kavakebian and some other lesser known characters, of-course if they have chance to get qualified. Some reformists also will boycott the election without Hashemi in the race.

Eshaq Jahangiri didn’t register in time, so all eyes are on Aref. Maybe Hashemi’s rejection would make Aref even happier than the Principalists.

Mohammad Reza Aref 62, has been VP in the Khatami administration for 7 years. Despite the fact that he’s seen as an experienced figure, he couldn’t gain the support of some Reformist groups.

Hassan Rowhani’s situation is no better. He’s known as Hashemi’s representative, but he only has a small support from moderate Reformists and some politicians don’t even consider him as a Reformist.

Pezeshkian, a Minister in the Hashemi administration is not expected to gain a significant following.

The Reformists tough days are exasperated with unity among their opponents in the Principalists front. In the Principalists front Ali Akbar Aboutorabi announced his withdrawal. Some hours later, Bagheri Lankarani and a bit later Alireza Zakani withdrew in favor of Saeed Jalili, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator.

A lot of speculations around the political spectrum hinted Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel and Ali Akbar Velayati’s might withdraw in favor of Jalili, so the so called “Resistance against Sanctions” front would test the waters in the coming election.

With Hashemi’s rejection unless they compromise on a single candidate the Reformists will face a failure. Although even a single candidate couldn’t get the majority of Reformists’s votes.

Hashemi released his third election manifesto in which he said, for political impact, every political party should be present in the election. His words are interpreted as a reaction to the possible decision of the Guardian Council.

If the Guardian Council ignore Hashemi’s old age, we should expect different scenarios and the Reformists chance of victory will increase.

*Abdullah Almasi is the Editor in Chief of Iranian Jahannews.com news website.

The post What Will Happen To The Reformists if Hashemi Rafsanjani Gets Disqualified? first appeared on .

September 2010, when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced the first steps of a subsidy targeting plan through the state TV, he never have guessed that in less than 2 years, he would be inundated with censure.

Critics accuse him of not carrying out the reforms in the right way. They claim that he was oblivious to the laws passed by the Majlis and instead has put his own ideas into action. His actions resulted in high inflation, weakening of domestic producers and destabilizing the market.

Subsidy targeting is part of a five step, “Subsidy Reform Plan” in Iran.  According to the 2010 act of the Majlis, the government could gain revenue of billions of Rials by canceling subsidies for energy carriers and essential goods. According to the Majlis’ laws the government should have given 50% of the revenue to the people. 30% should have been given to the producers and the rest would have been for the government expenses. Most of the critics are targeting this issue. Critics are mostly supporters of the program, but they say the government gave the producers’ share to the people to raise the given cash subsidy.

Products have subsequently become more expensive, because of the increased cost of transportation. Those who couldn’t afford it laid off workers and canceled productions.

The Government has been blamed for being the main reason for inflation, unemployment and impairing the domestic producers. Accordingly the next phase of the subsidies which was supposed to come into action this year is still pending.

This has caused a debate among the upcoming Presidential candidates on how they are going to improve living conditions and finish the job of implementing subsidies:

Mohsen Rezaee, the Secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council and a candidate commented on this matter: I’m totally in favor of subsidy reforms. He even promised to raise the given cash subsidy 2.5 times.

Ali Akbar Velayati, a candidate from the so called “Advancement” or “2+1” coalition thinks differently: Every administration is obliged to continue the subsidies but only those with low income should receive the cash subsidy. We can exclude the well off from receiving it and put it into long term investments and fund the country’s economy.

Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Tehran’s mayor and a Principalist candidate believes that the Reform Act is not implemented correctly. But it is a vital necessity that should be continued.

Ghoal Ali Hadad-Adel thinks like his other Principalist friends. He believes that not allocating the subsidy to domestic production has caused serious problems. He also said that the given subsidy cash should be raised considerably.

Kamran Bagheri Lankarani and Alireza Zakani are among the anti-west figures. Lankarani said, he would continue subsidies, keeping a close eye on low income people and limiting the impact it has on the inflation.

Zakani suggested a 7-step program to implement the subsidies. He said we should know the target social group  because now the cash subsidy is distributed among the rich and poor evenly which is not equitable.

Reformists criticize the government on subsidy reforms. Muhammad Reza Aref, (VP in Khatami administration), Hasan Rowhani (head of the Center for Strategic Research), Mustafa Kavakebian (MP) and Masoud Pezeshkian (minister in Hashemi administration) are the best known Reformist candidates. But considering Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s candidacy they are likely to step aside in favor of him.

Hashemi hardly criticizes the Ahmadinejad administration on subsidy reforms and said subsidies should have strengthened producers and improved the country’s economy and agriculture. Instead it has caused inflation and devalued the national currency by giving money to the people.

Hashemi’s critics say he believes in the Capitalist model as he did in his 8 year presidency.

Esfandiar Rahim Mashaee thinks very differently on the issue. This controversial figure is considered a candidate supported by the government.

 He said I feel it’s my duty to continue Ahmadinejad’s policies.

He believes the implemented first step of subsidies had no negative consequences and the government was successful in controlling the inflation.

The conclusion

As we see different views among political parties and different individuals, implementing subsidies and the amount and distribution of cash subsidies will change unless Ahmadinejad’s protégé is elected.

Most of the government critics say it’s very likely that the producers and the low income people will receive a better portion of the cash subsidies.

The anti-Iran sanctions could have a direct impact on implementing the subsidies. Yet this may change according to the final winner’s view towards the West.

We should wait and see that which candidate, with what political and economic proposals will win.

The post Subsidies Are A Hot Election Issue In Iran first appeared on .

What are the reformists’ plans to solve 10 years of dissent on the nuclear issue? How do they perceive negotiations with the US? Could would-be candidates concur with senior officials in the Islamic Republic and the Supreme Leader? Is Iran’s approach to the US likely to change?

These questions are very important because of what the US is doing in the region and the difficult economic situation in Iran. US interests in Iran have a knock on effect on countries like Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Bahrain. So these countries’ futures are also at stake.

If and when the US acknowledges Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the UK, France and Germany would follow. China and Russia are already much softer with Iran. So the US’ green light would end political, economic, medicine and media sanctions against Iran.

A series of sanctions from the US and its European allies have generated cynicism among the Iranian people towards the West. They cherish their independence and reputation and to them it’s even more important than their wages.

The Reformist candidates claim they have a breakthrough plan to come to an accord on the nuclear issue.

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani

After Khatami’s refusal to become a candidate, the chance of Hashemi’s candidacy is increasing. He was both Iran’s president and the speaker of the Parliament. However, those close to him ruled out his candidacy, but his daughter confirmed he will become a candidate.

Reformists believe unlike other candidates, Hashemi with his high reputation can make major changes in the Islamic Republic and revive the Reformists’ position.

Hashemi is one of the harshest critics of the current administration’s foreign policy. He recently said: “[the Current administration] did badly in foreign policy,” referring to president Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric Hashemi added: “Some encourage confrontation and then claim that the sanctions are just ink on paper.”

 He believes that repealing sanctions against Iran is a difficult task and Iran should pay a lot in return.

“We’re not at a war with Israel, but we will help if Arabs invade the country.” he said.

On Iran’s nuclear issue Hashemi said: “the Supreme Leader’s Fatwa on banning nuclear weapons is more important than any political commitment and I believe if the West stops their illogical pressures, we wouldn’t have any problems using nuclear energy for medical, agricultural and electricity producing purposes.”

One of the most controversial comments of Hashemi was printed in a political journal earlier this year in which he said: “the US is the ultimate power. In our perception, what’s the difference between US and China, Russia and Europe? If we negotiate with them, why not negotiate with the US?”

Eshagh Jahangiri

Eshagh Jahangiri was the industry minister during Mohammad Khatami’s administration and a member of the “Laborers and Construction” party.

Jahangiri’s words are derived from Khatami’s statements and Hashemi’s to a certain degree. In an interview with a newspaper about the future of Reformists in the current elections he said: “I think the world will have a different view towards Reformists and a great deal of our problems in foreign policy will get solved no matter which Reformist candidate wins.”

Jahangiri in criticizing the Ahmadinejad administration said: “sanctions won’t get lifted easily. But [if we win the election] the world knows they are dealing with a wise team who believes in winning for both sides and interaction through diplomacy. In such circumstances, the world can’t bully us anymore, and they should talk in a sensible way.”

Hassan Rowhani

Hassan Rowhani is the head of the center for strategic studies for the country and an old companion of Hashemi.

Apparently, there are no differences between Hashemi and Rowhani in terms of foreign policy.

 “We have to restrain the hostility between Iran and the US. Iran is not meant to remain enemies with the US forever. We have to change this relationship in the right time, while preserving our national interests,” said Hasan Rowhani, now 64, who has been the secretary of the National Supreme Security Council and also in charge of Iran’s nuclear issue.

Pricipalists criticize Rowhani for halting nuclear enrichment in 2002.

When declaring his candidacy, he said: “If I get elected, I will change the path we’ve taken. We can use a better strategy in which we preserve our inalienable right, while getting along with the rest of the world. It’s clear that nuclear energy is our inalienable right, but other things are too. Like not being under sanctions and not having pressure on ordinary people. We want to achieve all these rights, not just one.”

Mohammad-Reza Aref

Mohammad-Reza Aref, 52, Vice President of Khatami’s second administration, a University professor and a politician is another Reformist candidate. He is close to Khatami but some believe he’s more of a soft touch than Khatami.

“We are obliged to defend our national rights in the world’s communities. We should interact with the world. But in our talks we should respect the right of other countries. We shouldn’t consider ourselves as the leader of the world and give suggestions to the world while we have a lot of problems in our own country. We are responsible for our country. We shouldn’t be weak in negotiations, so they won’t impose their will on us.”

Mostafa Kavakebian

Mostafa Kavakebian’s comments about the nuclear issue and negotiations with the US are probably the most interesting.

“I proposed a scheme to the Parliament with which we could normalise our relations with the US within 6 months and I’m sticking to my guns. Of course we should take note of our red lines,” said Kavakebian who has less chance of victory between the reformist candidates.

Conclusion

As we see, if Reformists were to win, Iran’s policy towards the nuclear issue and the way of dealing with US will likely change.

However it is possible that the Supreme Leader will use his authority to prevent the next president of changing the overall strategy of the Islamic Republic, yet a change in tactics dealing with the west on the nuclear issue is the least we can anticipate.

The post What if Iran’s Next President is a Reformist? first appeared on .

Iran’s coming Election is facing a new political controversy, not from the opposition or the “Reformists”, but from a party within the current Iranian Administration.

The Government’s critics believe that Esfandiar Rahim Mashaee who is the head of a party, which they label as “Deviant Current”. Mashaee who was the Chief of Staff in Ahmadinejad’s administration, left the office as Ahmadinejad suggested and became the head of the Non Aligned Movement Secretariat.

 Even though Mashaee hasn’t actually declared his candidacy, political activists suggest that his shared programs with the President are paving the way for his candidacy. Senior government officials don’t deny the relationship between Mashaee’s programs and the Presidential Elections.

Ahmadinejad, who cannot run for presidency because he was president for two consecutive terms, began a speaking tour around Iran in the beginning of the new Iranian year and Mashaee was present at each step.

In visits to Semnan and Isfahan provinces, Ahmadinejad symbolically offered the Islamic Republic’s flag to Mashaee and then gave the opportunity for Mashaee to speak out, and this caused discontent among some members of Iran’s Majlis, political activists and even high ranking military officials.

But the main objection from the “Principalists” and patriots towards those around the President are targeted at Mashaee and his cronies in 10th administration.

He also made controversial statements about “the end of the Islamic Era”. “The Islamic Era is over; we began the revolution in 1979 to promote our ideas to other countries, but I should say that the Islamic Era is over; this doesn’t mean that clinging to Islamic ideas will vanish, but the Era is over. Like the Era of horse riding is over, but we still have horses and horse riding and the Era of cars will come to an end, but there will still be cars and driving.” He said.

Mashaee was accused in 2011 to be part of a big banking embezzlement. One of the main suspects confessed to his hidden meeting with Mashaee. Thus far neither Mashaee, nor the administration has commented on the matter.

Government critics believe that the former Chief of Staff has influences above the law; He has influenced the acceptance of many important government recruits and also resignations and he doesn’t allow involvement of elites who are mostly oppose to his ideas, in the administration. Even though Mashaee denied all the accusations.

The Current administration is also accused of squandering pubic funds on Election campaigns, spending money on cultural programs (for the purpose of promoting the administration) without reason. But they have denied all of the accusations without giving any defense.

 The “Principalists” and other government critics initially thought of Mashaee as a rogue member of the administration. They began advising Ahmadinejad to put Mashaee aside, but after Ahmadinejad endless support of Mashaee, they implied that they are both on the same path and can’t be separated. Consistent praising of Mashaee by Ahmadinejad confirmed the thought. Ahmadinejad knew unfavorable judgments toward Mashaee will spark new criticisms and Critics saw this as arrogance.

 Judging by these facts Mashaee awaits an unknown faith. Because the conventional wisdom is that Mashaee will be denied entrance to the Presidential race by the Guardian Council.

Recent talks by the head of the Guardian Council supports this belief. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati was asked about how this Council handles those of the “deviant order” who want to enter the Presidential race.

“We act according to the law.” Jannati answered.

This is perhaps why there have been speculations about other possible candidates in case Mashaee gets rejected.

Gholam Hussein Elham, spokesperson of the current administration, Ali Nikzad Minister of Roads and Municipality, Ali Akbar Salehi the Foreign Minister and Rouhollah Kermani the former Vice President are among the list of possible candidates.

There are other possible candidates other than those mentioned, they are not socially recognized and we chose not to elaborate on them.

*Abdullah Almasi is the Editor in Chief of Iranian Jahannews.com news website.

The post Ahmadinejad’s Plans for the Presidential Election first appeared on .

Six months after the 10th Presidential Election, the dust had settled and Tehran was calm after a period of unrest. The opposition didn’t reach their goal to cancel the election. It was clear that Iran’s 11th Presidential Election will be a significant one.

In 2009, various opposition groups from inside and outside of Iran, formed the opposition coalition, with the majority of them being the so called “Reformists”. Reformists views are closer to those of Western countries and despite the “Pricipalists” ideology (which is Islam first), they imagine that Western culture and politics, can be embedded in Islamic ideology with a few modifications.

After the 10th Presidential Election, the opposition claimed fraud in the voting and this went on for months. [Just as the opposition in Venezuela is now doing (perhaps the same paymasters)] Senior Iranian officials offered legal ways to pursue the legitimacy of the votes through the Guardian Council, but they refused and the Supreme Leader accused them of trying to topple the government.

The accusation was made once the majority of the opposition stopped street protests. Accordingly, In the eyes of Iranian officials, only those opposition leaders which continued to pursue an incitement to protest were accused that they were acting in collusion with Iran’s enemies, meaning the US and Israel.

In spite of requests from Iranian officials, the Leaders of the Reformist movements defended their acts of 2009.

The dissension between Reformists and the government led to a belief in public opinion that they won’t take part in the 11th Presidential Election; Because they think the Islamic Republic was not a worthy entity for the people’s vote.

But political observers have witnessed statements from Reformist activists citing the importance of being a part of these Presidential Elections. Four Reformists have declared their candidacy so far; even though most of the activists insist on Khatami’s candidacy.

Iran’s Former President (1997-2001), Muhammad Khatami was among the opposition leaders of 2009. He didn’t condemn the acts in 2009 against the Islamic Republic and was on the same dangerous path as Mir Hussein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi. According to security officials, since January 2011, Mousavi and Karroubi were under 24/7 surveillance so that they would not attempt any revolt.

Muhammad Reza Aref declared his candidacy on behalf of Muhammad Khatami, because Khatami’s supporters  suggest he won’t he wont run in the elections.

We can conclude that the majority of the Reformist groups are confused. They don’t know whether Khatami will enter the controversial Presidential race or if he will try to defend his acts in the past. Because Iranian officials claim that if Khatami insisted that his 2009 stance was correct then this could be interpreted as an act of treason and such a person does not merit to be the President.

Based on these facts, some activists say that if Khatami doesn’t pledge loyalty to Iran’s leader and the revolution, he won’t pass the vetting process. The Iranian constitution demands that the Guardian Council examines the qualifications of any candidate.

Khatami, who’s chance of candidacy is very low, said that he doesn’t want to be rejected by an Islamic Republic establishment, meaning the Guardian Council.

Despite the objection from some of the reformists, those close to Khatami are trying to convince him to become a candidate. But they say that if he doesn’t take a step, Ali Akbar Hashemi, a former Iranian President would be a good replacement.

Mohsen Hashemi, his older son said there are many pressures for his father’s candidacy, and he encourages his father to take the plunge.

Hashemi himself didn’t show a willingness to be a candidate but has said that he will support the final winner.

The fragmentation among the reformists didn’t impact moderate members of the movement like Hasan Rohani, Chief of the Supreme National Security Council in the Khatami administration, Mostafa Kavakebian, Head of the Mardom Salari party and Muhammad Shariatmadari, Minister of Commerce in Khatami’s administration have declared candidacy and have even began their campaigns.

Developments at the Principalists front are totally different. They have come up with more than 10 candidates and it is expected that there will be more before the vetting process begins on the 14th May.

Here is a list of Principalists’ declared candidates:

1-   Mohsen Rezaee, Former Chief Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and currently the Secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran

2-   Alireza Zakani, member of the Iran’s Majlis (Parliament).

3-   Ali Fallahian, Minister of Intelligence in the cabinet of President Hashemi Rafsanjani from 1989 to 1997.

4-   Kamran Bagheri Lankarani, Minister of Health and Medical Education in the first cabinet of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

5-   Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, former chairman of the Iranian Majlis.

6-   Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the current mayor of Tehran and a candidate in the Iranian presidential election of 2005.

7-   Ali Akbar Velayati, the foreign minister of Iran from 1981 to 1997. Currently he is an advisor on International Affairs to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei.

8-   Yahya Al-Eshagh, Minister of Commerce under Cabinet of President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989–1997)

9-   Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, The First deputy of the Majlis speaker.

10- Seyyed Mohammad-Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, The second deputy of the Majlis speaker.

11- Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi, Minister of the Interior of Iran (2005-2008).

12- Manouchehr Mottaki, Minister of Foreign Affairs (2005- 2010).

Yet some of these candidates have made coalitions to beat their opponents. They’ll remain united until the public through surveys shows a preference for one final candidate and then the others in the coalition should support him.

“Pishraft” coalition is the most significant one, consisting of Ali Akbar Velayati, Gholamali Haddad Adel and Muhammad Bagher Ghablibaf. Each one of them are trying to attract more attention and raise their chance of victory against the two others in the coalition.

Seyef Muhammad Hassan Abutorabifard, Muhammad Reza Bahonar, Yahya Al-eshagh, Mustafa Pourmohammadi and Manuchehr Mottaki form another notable coalition called “Coalition of the Majority of Pricipalists”.

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