Iranians voted Friday in a presidential contest that pit President Hassan Rouhani against a serious challenger, Seyyed Ebrahim Raeisi, in an unexpectedly tight race. Election polls historically misses their mark and unable to correctly predict Iran elections’ results. The results of latest US presidential election also came as a surprise to nearly everyone. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at 70%! In such circumstances, many observers are casting doubt on the accuracy of public opinion polls.

“The war of polls is scientific on the face of it, but it is commonplace in actual fact which has no realist bases and standard criteria. In Iran, too, a big difference in the results of the polls of the two parties in the elections is indicative of the fact that none of them is blessed with pragmatic and scientific tools for opinion surveys. Moreover, performance of big institutions has been discredited many times, such as the presidential elections of 2005 and 2013. In both these elections, the polls had never given a chance for the candidates who won the elections in the end. As a result, the polls should be taken into consideration in a careful manner”, says Payam Fazlinejad, having cooperated with various reformist as well as Principlist press as a writer and analyst.

Pointing to the devastating effects of the war of polls, he said, “Lack of analytical power and power measurement are risky, and leave negative effects on the decisions of the campaigns in the remaining three days to the election day because some part of their political decisions are made in these days based on the very polls and surveys which has no scientific base. The trend can result in miscalculations in campaigns of both parties either prior or subsequent to the elections. It even may turn triumph into a complete failure in the long run. The outburst of news about such matters in the last days which are on the basis of these opinion polls may work against itself only if it is mixed with miscalculations. It can be the case for all the campaigns.

In response to the question of “How close are the predictions of the reformist and Principlist elites and statesmen to what the people, in general, believe about the winner of the elections?” Fazlinejad, who has the experience of working as a senior researcher in the institution Keyhan for ten years, said, “We should learn from the experience. The US elections in 2016 proved with certainty that prediction is irrational in actual fact. I believe in Churchill’s statements which is peculiar to Iran’s political society, ’A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen’. Iran is a complex society which no one can foretell its behavior and unfortunately, no attempt has been made in order to work on its predictability. For the purpose of making the society predictable, we are supposed to work out plans for developing political psychology as well as political sociology circles, but neither elites nor statesmen actually pay attention to such fields except for the night of the elections!

In response to the question of “What do you think are the wrong measures of both parties?”, he said, “Both parties have heavily invested in the cyberspace and social networks, but took no notice of the real society from the beginning. When the political activists restrict themselves to the cyberspace, their relationship with different social strata and their issues and concerns are reduced and they lose the power of creating a big social movement. Both parties have made their best in the last two weeks to keep their supporters away from the “cyberspace restriction” in social networks. They have developed plans such as sending representatives to far-off places, small towns and villages, but leading the supporters to social networks, and the distribution of news and analyses in internet media have resulted in the energy outburst far on in time.

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Hassan Rowhani becomes Iran’s new president after winning 50.7% of the votes.

Iran’s Minister of the Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar officially announced the final results of Iran’s presidential election (held yesterday Friday).

A 72.7% turn-out of voters shocked foreign observers who didn’t predict such a high participation.

Of the 36,704,156 votes tallied Rowhani won a total of 18,613,329.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei issued a statement congratulating the “Political Acheivement” of the Iranian nation and to the elected President.

In his statement Ayatollah Khamenei described people’s high turn-out as a respond to the western propaganda against Iran.

“The real winner is Iranian nation,” he said.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who will remain Iran’s president for almost 2 months more issued a statement praising the Iranian nation for their strong participation in the elections. He also congratulated his successor Hassan Rowhani.

Rowhani’s Principalist rivals; Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Saeed Jalili, Mohsen Rezaee and Ali Akbar Velayati also congratulated the President to be.

Tehran’s Mayor Ghalibaf won 6,077,292 votes. Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili won 4,168,946 and the former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Mohsen Rezaee secured 3,884,412 of the votes.

Shortly after the announcement of Rowhani’s win, his supporters in Tehran and some other Iranian cities celebrated the victory in the streets.

 Former two-term President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who backed Rowhani in the elections issued a statement on Saturday calling Iran’s elections, the most democratic elections in the world.

“Iranians demonstrated their ignorance to foreign and domestic propaganda. Our enemies should confess that Iran has the most democratic election in the world and they can’t cast doubts on results,” the statement read.

He also appreciated the “Elections authorities” for the perfect conduct of the elections.

“The Tsunami of the Iranian nation beat the White House,” said Mohammad Reza Naghdi the commander of the Basij force (People’s Militia). “The High turn-out in the Iranian election proves the trust of the people to the Islamic establishment.”

On Friday, millions of Iranian voters headed for polling stations to cast their ballots and choose the country’s 11th president as well as their representatives in the city and village councils.

Nearly 50.5 million Iranians, including more than 1.6 million first-time voters, were eligible to vote in the June 14 elections.

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According to the latest official results announced by Iran’s Interior Ministry with 23,014,873 ballots counted so far, the moderate cleric Hassan Rowhani is leading with 11,754,013 votes which is 51.07% of the counted votes followed by Tehran’s Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with 3,494,938 which is 15.19% of the counted votes.

If a candidate wins over 50 percent of the vote in the first round, he will replace the incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Otherwise a run-off will be held in a week’s time to determine a final winner in the race.

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Saeed Jalili: “Everybody must respect whoever the people elect…I ask all the people and supporters of candidates to help create the political epic.”

Mohsen Rezaei: “I have come here to say people are our main concern, that’s why I came to cast my vote. I will thank the Iranian nation for whatever decision they make today… My way is the continuation of the way of my martyred brothers.”

Hassan Rowhani: if the people create a great epic today on july 14, july 15 will be the victory day for the Iranian nation and not a particular candidate… the owner of this country is the nation. The country is theirs and their right… We are witnessing a higher turnout in this election.

Mohammad Gharazi: Today is the day of Resurrection for the revolution and the election. The enemy has sheathed its sword… what organizes the election are the votes of the people. I will accept whatever the Interior Ministry, the Guardian Council, and the nation say. I have told the guardian council in a letter that I will not have representatives because I fully trust their staff.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf:”Certainly only one of the candidates will be elected and people’s choice will be the best their votes will be respected… I want to make fundamental and basic changes in the area of progress and justice.”

Ali Akbar Velayati: “What is most important is the people’s turnout and electing the best candidate… people should rush to the polls… Whoever people vote for will be respected by all of us.”

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Many of the country’s top officials have already cast their votes with the Leader of the Islamic Republic being the first. He urged the nation to go to the polls early. In response to remarks by a American National Security Council official, the leader stated that the Iranian nation would not be influenced by such remarks and that they would act according to their own beliefs and needs.

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Mohammad Reza Aref a reformist candidate in Iran’s upcoming presidential election announced his quit from the race in favor of the presidential candidate Hasan Rowhani who is strongly backed by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

“I quit from the election race because Mr. Khatami advised me to do so,” a statement of Aref published in his website read.

“Mr. Aref will abide by any decision taken by Mohammad Katami,” said Hasan Rasouli, Aref’s spokesman in an interview with Iran’s View on Monday.

“The Advisory Council of the Reformists headed by Mohammad Khatami was in charge of choosing a single candidate for the party,” he said.

Meanwhile Mohammad Reza Aref has repeatedly said he “will stand in the election race till the end.” He has even sworn this morning to not quit the race.

A few days ago his spokesperson told Iran’s View that Reformists chose Aref as the candidate for the party.

But it seems Hasan Rowhani and his supporters were successful to make Aref quit the race.

Hasan Rowhani a former secretary of Iran’s National Security Council and currently an envoy to the supreme leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei on the council is backed by Hashemi Rafsanjani the former two-term president of the country.

Aref is backed by the former president Mohammad Khatami who is a leader of the Iranian reformists.

In recent weeks the Reformists front witnessed hot debates between Khatami and Rafsanjani on choosing a single candidate for the Reformists in the presidential election.

Aref didn’t even recognize Rowhani as a reformist. Rowhani once during Khatami’s presidency signed a letter that conservatives wrote against him. In other hand, Khatami and his inner circle believe Rowhani would prefer Hashemi’s interests to the reformists’ approaches.

Anyway the Reformists’ success to have a single candidate is the worst news for the Principalists who have three candidates for the presidential election.

The Principalists failed to form a coalition and choose a single candidate so far. Although Gholam Ali Hadad Adel quit the race on Monday in favor of “all principalists” but given his low performance in the different polls it will not help the Principalists to compete against a strong reformist rival.

The three Principalist candidates who are unlikely to quit in favor of each other are: Saeed Jalili Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Tehran’s mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and former foriegn minister Ali Akbar Velayati

According to the polls and latest analysis after the withdrawal of Aref, Hasan Rowhani will have more than 20% of the ballot and will be competing with the Principalists’ front-runner Ghalibaf who has about 25% of the ballot.

Political observers in Tehran believe if the Principalists fail to form a coalition, Hasan Rowhani will attract a significant percent of the votes and will compete against Ghalibaf in the run-off round.

Iranians will cast their votes in the presidential election on Friday June 14th. A run-off round is expected as none of six remaining candidates are likely to gain 50% of ballots in polls.

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“In this meeting we are to clarify the procedures of the election [for the candidates] and to hear comments of the candidates,” said Kadkhodaei in a presser just before the meeting.

While the representative of Gholam Ali Hadad Adel was absent at today’s meeting. A few hours after the meeting Gholam Ali Hadad Adel issued a statement announcing his quit from the election race in favor of the “Prinipalist Candidates”. He didn’t mention name of any of the candidates.

The spokesman of the Guardian Council also denied the reports on the possibility of reconsidering qualifications of the reformist candidate Hasan Rowhani.

 Iranian Fars News Agency reported earlier today that the Guardian Council will reconsider Rowhani’s qualifications in an urgent meeting today.

“We may give notices to the candidates about some aspects of their campaigning but we not review the qualifications,” Kadkhodaei said.

At the beginning of the meeting, the represantatives of the candidates delivered a short statement about explaining their candidates’ stance on procedures of the election.

“I appreciate the Guardian Council,” said Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh, the representative of Rowhani, “It can avoid any misunderstanding if we the representatives of the candidates be present during sealing of ballot boxes,” he said.

The campaing manager of another reformist candidate, Mohammad Reza Aref also said they will be committed to the law in every step of the election.

“Our slogan is commitment to the law so we accept the role of the Guardian Council in vetting the qualifications and counting of the ballots,” he said.

Shahin Mohammad-Sadeghi a representative of Ali Akbar Velayati also said his candidate is committed to the law and will abide any decision by the Guardian Council.

Ali Bagheri the representative of Saeed Jalili also underlined the “important role of the Guardian Council in the last elections” and said: “This initiative by the Guardian Council to have closely interaction with the candidates shows the council has a serious approach [to have a fair election].”

Talking to the journalists, Bagheri denied the possibility of Jalili quitting on behalf of any other Principalist candidates.

“Saeed Jalili will not quit from the race. His popularity is boosting after the TV debates,” he said.

The representatives of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Mohammad Gharazi and Mohsen Rezaei endorsed the role of the Guardian Council and wished a fair election with a high turn-out.

Iranians will cast their votes on behalf of one the 8 presidential candidates on June 14. 

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