Six months after the 10th Presidential Election, the dust had settled and Tehran was calm after a period of unrest. The opposition didn’t reach their goal to cancel the election. It was clear that Iran’s 11th Presidential Election will be a significant one.

In 2009, various opposition groups from inside and outside of Iran, formed the opposition coalition, with the majority of them being the so called “Reformists”. Reformists views are closer to those of Western countries and despite the “Pricipalists” ideology (which is Islam first), they imagine that Western culture and politics, can be embedded in Islamic ideology with a few modifications.

After the 10th Presidential Election, the opposition claimed fraud in the voting and this went on for months. [Just as the opposition in Venezuela is now doing (perhaps the same paymasters)] Senior Iranian officials offered legal ways to pursue the legitimacy of the votes through the Guardian Council, but they refused and the Supreme Leader accused them of trying to topple the government.

The accusation was made once the majority of the opposition stopped street protests. Accordingly, In the eyes of Iranian officials, only those opposition leaders which continued to pursue an incitement to protest were accused that they were acting in collusion with Iran’s enemies, meaning the US and Israel.

In spite of requests from Iranian officials, the Leaders of the Reformist movements defended their acts of 2009.

The dissension between Reformists and the government led to a belief in public opinion that they won’t take part in the 11th Presidential Election; Because they think the Islamic Republic was not a worthy entity for the people’s vote.

But political observers have witnessed statements from Reformist activists citing the importance of being a part of these Presidential Elections. Four Reformists have declared their candidacy so far; even though most of the activists insist on Khatami’s candidacy.

Iran’s Former President (1997-2001), Muhammad Khatami was among the opposition leaders of 2009. He didn’t condemn the acts in 2009 against the Islamic Republic and was on the same dangerous path as Mir Hussein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi. According to security officials, since January 2011, Mousavi and Karroubi were under 24/7 surveillance so that they would not attempt any revolt.

Muhammad Reza Aref declared his candidacy on behalf of Muhammad Khatami, because Khatami’s supporters  suggest he won’t he wont run in the elections.

We can conclude that the majority of the Reformist groups are confused. They don’t know whether Khatami will enter the controversial Presidential race or if he will try to defend his acts in the past. Because Iranian officials claim that if Khatami insisted that his 2009 stance was correct then this could be interpreted as an act of treason and such a person does not merit to be the President.

Based on these facts, some activists say that if Khatami doesn’t pledge loyalty to Iran’s leader and the revolution, he won’t pass the vetting process. The Iranian constitution demands that the Guardian Council examines the qualifications of any candidate.

Khatami, who’s chance of candidacy is very low, said that he doesn’t want to be rejected by an Islamic Republic establishment, meaning the Guardian Council.

Despite the objection from some of the reformists, those close to Khatami are trying to convince him to become a candidate. But they say that if he doesn’t take a step, Ali Akbar Hashemi, a former Iranian President would be a good replacement.

Mohsen Hashemi, his older son said there are many pressures for his father’s candidacy, and he encourages his father to take the plunge.

Hashemi himself didn’t show a willingness to be a candidate but has said that he will support the final winner.

The fragmentation among the reformists didn’t impact moderate members of the movement like Hasan Rohani, Chief of the Supreme National Security Council in the Khatami administration, Mostafa Kavakebian, Head of the Mardom Salari party and Muhammad Shariatmadari, Minister of Commerce in Khatami’s administration have declared candidacy and have even began their campaigns.

Developments at the Principalists front are totally different. They have come up with more than 10 candidates and it is expected that there will be more before the vetting process begins on the 14th May.

Here is a list of Principalists’ declared candidates:

1-   Mohsen Rezaee, Former Chief Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and currently the Secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran

2-   Alireza Zakani, member of the Iran’s Majlis (Parliament).

3-   Ali Fallahian, Minister of Intelligence in the cabinet of President Hashemi Rafsanjani from 1989 to 1997.

4-   Kamran Bagheri Lankarani, Minister of Health and Medical Education in the first cabinet of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

5-   Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, former chairman of the Iranian Majlis.

6-   Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the current mayor of Tehran and a candidate in the Iranian presidential election of 2005.

7-   Ali Akbar Velayati, the foreign minister of Iran from 1981 to 1997. Currently he is an advisor on International Affairs to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei.

8-   Yahya Al-Eshagh, Minister of Commerce under Cabinet of President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989–1997)

9-   Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, The First deputy of the Majlis speaker.

10- Seyyed Mohammad-Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, The second deputy of the Majlis speaker.

11- Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi, Minister of the Interior of Iran (2005-2008).

12- Manouchehr Mottaki, Minister of Foreign Affairs (2005- 2010).

Yet some of these candidates have made coalitions to beat their opponents. They’ll remain united until the public through surveys shows a preference for one final candidate and then the others in the coalition should support him.

“Pishraft” coalition is the most significant one, consisting of Ali Akbar Velayati, Gholamali Haddad Adel and Muhammad Bagher Ghablibaf. Each one of them are trying to attract more attention and raise their chance of victory against the two others in the coalition.

Seyef Muhammad Hassan Abutorabifard, Muhammad Reza Bahonar, Yahya Al-eshagh, Mustafa Pourmohammadi and Manuchehr Mottaki form another notable coalition called “Coalition of the Majority of Pricipalists”.

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Manouchehr Mottaki, who served as Iran’s Foreign Minister from 2005 to 2010, and has now announced his candidacy for the Presidential elections in June, told Iran’s Supreme Leader in the last months of his service that “We are ready to reach an agreement with the P5+1.”

“[In this scenario] we also should make the West accept our rights and allow them to announce that they convinced Iran to accept their demands,” Mottaki said as he explained his plan to Ayatollah Khamenei.

The plan, apparently, proposed to accept of some of the P5+1 demands as a face-saving step for the western side.

Speaking in a conference of “Union of Islamic Societies of Independent Students” in Tehran, Mottaki said on Friday that he suggested Iran should declare the Supreme Leader’s Nuclear Fatwa (religious edict, declaring that the production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons are all prohibited in Islam), and increase cooperation with the IAEA, despite all of their sabotages.

“The Supreme leader accepted my plan, [then] we discussed it with President Ahmadinejad and [following his order] a 4- member team was formed,” he said. “but unfortunately I was dismissed after a few months,” Mottaki said.

On 13 December 2010, Mottaki was dismissed as foreign minister – while on an official tour of Africa – by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

President Ahmadinejad appointed the country’s then top nuclear official, Ali Akbar Salehi, to replace Mr Mottaki.

“We were [running] in a marathon, we had to manage sanctions and perform our policies simultaneously,” He said about his serving period as Iran’s Foreign Minister.

“On the nuclear issue since 2005 we have arrived at a new battle, we reached self-sufficiency in uranium enrichment and consequently are facing fresh pressures from the West,” Mottaki asserted saying “…for the one who has the upper hand, retreating will make him the loser.”

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council formulates the country’s nuclear policy. The nuclear policies formulated by the council would become effective if they are confirmed by the Supreme Leader. The Secretary of the council, Saeed Jalili acts as the chief nuclear negotiator of Iran.

Latest round of talks between Iran and the P5+1 group held April 5^th and 6^th in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

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Iran’sView: As we get closer to the eleventh presidential election in Iran, the activities of individuals, groups, parties, and coalitions have been increasing significantly and influential figures and parties talk more about the election.

Fundamentalist, Reformists, and a group called the Supporters of the Government are the three main parties who are now preparing for the presidential election.

Fundamentalists and the 2+1 coalition

It was in mid-December when GholamAli Haddad Adel, MP and politician close to Iran’s Leader, announced the establishment of a coalition among the Fundamentalists. The news broadly spread in the country’s political atmosphere.

The new coalition was named “2+1”, including Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, Ali Akbar Velayati (former foreign minister and the leader’s advisor on international affairs), and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (the Mayor of Tehran).

It seems that the fundamentalists again have turned to the strategy of coalition that has become one of their political traditions in the last decade. This strategy was picked by the Fundamentalists during the second round of the Islamic Councils of Cities and Villages in early 2000s when they were noticeably successful with the establishment of a coalition named “Abadgarane Irane Islami” (or the Builders of the Islamic Iran).

“The Coordinating Council of the Revolution’s Forces” in 2005 presidential election, the “5+6” coalition in parliamentary elections in 2007, and the “7+8” coalition in parliamentary elections in 2011 are examples of the main coalitions formed by the Fundamentalists.

Although the Fundamentalist coalition or the Coordination Council of Revolution’s forces could not succeed in 2005 presidential election and did not announce a single candidate but then the three fundamentalist candidates avoided entering the race and thus Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could win the election.

Now that the 2+1 coalition is established, Iran’s Parliament Speaker has reacted and stated that the coalition is not based on the consensus of all fundamentalists. MohammadReza Bahonar, Vice Speaker, has also called for the inclusion of more figures in the coalition.

On the other hand Mohsen Rezaei, and Manouchehr Mottaki, former foreign minister under Ahmadinejad have announced their candidacy as independent figures. There has also been news about the candidacy of Mostafa PourMohammadi, and some other figures close to the fundamentalists.

Fundamentalists and Jebheye Paydari (Stability Front)

In 2011, a number of Fundamentalists including former members of Ahmadinezad administration and a group of MPs established Jebheye Paydarie Enqelabe Eslami (the Stability Front of the Islamic Republic) with the support of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi. The Stability front won a number of seats in the parliament.

The fact that members of the Stability were former members of the government administration and parliament is considered to be a strongpoint by the party itself. The most important feature of this party is their disaccord with Hashemi Rafsanjani, setting them at the opposite point to his views.

Some of the Fundamentalists who don’t have good relations with the government believe that the claim that the Stability Front only supports the healthy part of the government is part of and in line with Ahmadinejad’s administration strategy. Assadollah Badamchian the head of Motalefe party said a while ago that “Supporting Ahmadinejad while not supporting Mashaei is a funny joke”.

Kamran Baqeri Lankarani, the speaker of the Stability Front has dismissed claims over the group’s support for Mashaei, Ahmadinejad’s Advisor, saying “We have no common candidate with the movement that supports the government’s election team.”

Currently Kmaran Baqeri Lankarani (former Health Minister), Parviz Fattah (former Energy Minister under Ahmadinejad’s first administration), and Saeed Jalil are considered as the candidates for Stability Front.  

The group called Hamiane Doulat (“The Supporters of Government”)

Although Ahmadinejad once told reporters that “we don’t think about the election’s candidates even for a moment”, many political observers believe that he would not easily hand down the presidency to a person with no inclination towards him. During a chat in the Iranian state TV when the host used the phrase “the last year of the government”, Ahmadinejad reacted with a grin and said “Who said it is the last year of the government?”

Some political observers believe Ahmadinejad’s supports for controversial figures like Mashaei and vice president Mohammad Reza Rahimi are pieces of puzzle of his step-to-step strategy.

It is said that Ahmdinejad’s choice for presidential candidacy is Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei. Mashaei’soffice however has denied his candidacy.

GholamHossein Elham, Government speaker, Ali Nikzad, the Housing Minister, Kamran Daneshjo, the Minister of Science, and Ali Akbar Salehi, Foreign Minister, are possible candidates supported by Ahmadinejad.

The Stability Front and the 2+1 coalition are rivals inside the Fundamentalist groups, with both having the same view in opposition to Government and the Reformists.

Reformists

 The possible candidates of Hashemi’s electoral plan, known as “National Unity” or “National Rescue” are seen more often in the news.

Ayatollah Hashemi who entered the electoral arena with his “Free Election” slogan, met with Ali Akbar Nateq Noori, a well-known clergyman and a member of Rohaniat Mobarez. “I am in touch with revolution forces, figures in Bazar (well-known businessmen), and the clergymen. They express their worries over the way you are treated. Come to the scene openly and we all support you,” said Nateq Noori in the meeting.

Previous elections show that whenever Hashemi enters the electoral arena openly he himself or those under his support have failed (like in the sixth round of parliamentary elections, or the 2005 and 2009 presidential elections). This time, however he is determined to have an effective presence. “I’ll be present in the scene of the eleventh presidential election fearlessly and will influence the election,” a reformist paper quoted Hashemi as saying in response to Nateq Noori. The newspaper claimed that “National Unity Government” holds sessions with the presence of Hashemi, Nateq Noori, and former president Mohammad khatami, and that one of the three members of the “national unity triangle” would be announced as the candidate for presidency.

There are other speculations which say the national unity triangle would announce another figure likeHassan Rohani as their candidate.

These days Hashemi family is significantly and seriously involved in the political arena. “We should say that Rohani’s candidacy for presidential election is definite. Moderation is now a public demand and his 36-year records show he has always observed moderation and had good relations with all political groups,” Yasser Hashemi, one of the sons of the family, said in support for Rohani’s candidacy. His remarks come as some consider Khatami as the main choice of Hashemi for presidential candidacy.

It should be noted that the reformists, especially “Mousavi Khoiniha” have clearly understood that boycotting the elections is not beneficial for them. Once they said “If we don’t come there would be no competition and rivalry so the people’s participation would be reduced” but now they have come to this conclusion that they should enter the election even with one candidate as they now have learnt from past experiences like the ninth round of parliamentary elections. Although figures like Saeed Hajjarian talked of decrease in the spirit of reform even among the heads of reformists, some like Majid Ansari and GolamHossein Karbaschi, former mayor of Tehran and a member of Kargozaran would like to gain power through the reformists coming to the power.

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