Almost 40 days have passed since President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s close companion, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, was disqualified for candidacy in presidential election and the president’s silence so far has surprised many.

His controversial and exaggerating support for Mashaei, especially in the last six months prior to the election was to an extent which made many expect an eruptive reaction from him.

Mashaei is Ahmadinejad’s longtime close friend whose actions, as many critics say, decreased the president’s popularity. He has had overstatements and exorbitant talks about sacred principals of Islam and Shiism and is also charged with political and economical corruption, but Ahmadinejad has insisted many times that “I am Mashaei, and Mashaei is me”. Upon his disqualification, the president said he would pursuit the case to the last minute via the leader and hoped the issue would be solved.

“The president met the leader tree times and requested for his special order [on the issue] but the leader did not accept his requests,” said Haj Sadeghi, the deputy of the representative of the Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

It is not clear if Ahmadinejad did other things too but in a gathering held on June 24, when he spoke to his supporters he said sarcastically, “They omitted a number of the pure and the believer and many were sad and contacted me regularly,” He did not mention any names but political observers say he was referring to disqualification of Mashaei.        

The president’s supporters and even many of his critics expected the president to attack the main organizations of the system, especially the Guardian Council, but unbelievably he did nothing and pretended to obey the law.

Ahmadinejad’s “mere” silence was so strange that led political observers make two analyses.

A small group of observers who believe in the first analysis still are waiting for Ahmadinejad’s political attack. They believe the president is adding to his indirect protest with suspending his provincial trips and doing nothing for the economy. These analysts say the president is angry about the big defeat of his men in the presidential and city council elections and the cases against him in the judiciary and has a special plan to punish his critics even if only one day remains from his administration.

But the second group of analysts rejects the first analysis and makes a totally different argument in response to it. They say during recent years, Dr. Ahmadinejad and his friends have reached to this conclusion that standing against original and principal organizations of the Islamic Republic and creating tensions in the country would lead to a decline in their popular votes and omission from the country’s political system. According to them, for several reasons it is not expected from Ahmadinejad to make any upheaval in the remaining days of his presidency:

1. Considering the two orders by the leader, one regarding the vice presidency of Mashaei and the other regarding the ministry of information, Ahmadinejad thought he could make the system back off but his prediction turned wrong. He also has seen that even during the 2009 protests and riots the system did not back off from its position and did not nullify the votes so he would not make the same mistake over Mashaei’s disqualification.
2. Inability to control economic problems that led to increased financial pressure against the people, paying little attention to the sacred, and disagreeing with some rules and leader’s advices weaken his social standing. The president cannot make tension in the society when he does not have popular support.
3. The president does not want to make himself a center of hatred forever with making a not very useful tension in the country
4. He wants to remain as a peaceful and oppressed figure in the mind of the people, leaving good memories behind himself and giving himself the chance of returning to top positions again.
5. He does not want to compensate the chance of getting away from the charges against him and his friends in several economic and political suits for a political upheaval which does not have a clear result.
6. A political attack might destroy the president’s critics but its costs would be more than its benefits and it would be more like a suicidal action and not a contemplated action.
7. If Ahmadinejad wanted to create tension he would do it before the election but his silence then showed he was not willing to do so.

Based on these reasons the second analysis seems to be closer to reality and thus we should not expect more tensions and upheavals from the president.

The post Ahmadinejad’s Mysterious Silence On The Rejectection Of His Preferred Candidate first appeared on .

I have prepared my chest for every spear and I am not afraid of anything in the way of justice,” he said, adding that he would continue his way despite some putting obstacles in his way.
One of the key speakers in the conference was Gholam Hossein Elham, the government’s spokesman, who praised the president for his services. He officially inaugurated the “No Cut Press” website that has been newly launched by a group of Ahmadinejad supporters.
A number of Ahmadinezjad’s top officials including Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, the controversial advisor to the president, were present at the conference. The participants shouted slogans in support of Ahmadinejad and Mashaei.

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Presidential hopeful Saeed Jalili said in his first campaign speech on Friday that he will continue “Iran’s foreign policy of seeking to extend the influence of Islam in the world.”

“Imam Khomeini’s discourse does not recognize any [super] power in the world,” he said.

Jalili who believes in reordering the administrative structure of the Islamic Republic based on the discourse of the Islamic Revolution, added “We would be unfortunate if we did not rely on Islamic thoughts.”

“Since the beginning of the 1979 Revolution, Iran’s enemies have tried to prevent the growth and formation of the Islamic revolution,” said the secretary of Iran’s National Security Council.

Wearing a Chafiye, the symbol of Palestinian solidarity and a sign of the Basiji forces (People’s ideological committees and militias) in Iran, Jalili said: “Where the Basiji way of thinking is in effect, Iran’s greedy enemies are incapable of penetration.”

Praising the discourse of the Basij he added, “Anyone who will be the president of this country should believe in this discourse and should implement the necessary programs to manifest the discourse.”

Jalili have chosen his campaign slogan as “We Are Standing: Resistance the key of Development”, which is another reference to his believe in resistance against the west and world powers. his supporters also point to his style of negotiating with world powers in the nuclear talks with the so-called group of P5+1 (US, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany) as a successful model of resistance for development.

Ali Bagheri, undersecretary of the Iran’s National Security Council who was chosen as the head of Jalili’s campaign also delivered a speech to the crowd of supporters of Iran’s top nuclear negotiator (Jalili) in a sport’s stadium in Tehran.

“A vote for Jalili is not a vote for an individual or an intelligent negotiator but is a vote to develop an Islamic Iran in this decade,” Bagheri said.

“If jalili becomes president, all of our enemies will be disappointed,” he said.

A number of political and cultural figures and MPs were present in this inauguration of Jalili’s campaign but the presence of Sayed Mohammad Hosseini, the minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration was interesting as president Ahmadinejad supports his top aide Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei who was disqualified to run for president by the Guardian Council.

Ahmadinejad later said he will ask the supreme leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei to reinstall Mashaei.

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“Mr.Hashemi Rafsanjani and his campaign entered to the presidential race while committed to the law and ethics and we will continue [to respect the law],” he said.

“Hashemi was and god willing will remain as a pillar of the regime.”

Iran’s interior ministry announced on Tuesday that Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a two-term former president had been disqualified by the Guardian Council to run in next month’s election to succeed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The list of qualified candidates also did not include the name of the President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s top aide, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei.

Mashaei said he will ask the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei to help him back in the presidential race.

But Rafsanjani did not immediately comment on the decision.

Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei the spokesman of the Council in an interview with Iran’s state TV on Tuesday that according to the Iran’s presidential election law, disqualified candidates cannot appeal the decision of the Guardian Council. 

The post Hashemi Will Not Oppose His Disqualification By The Guardian Council: Campaign’s Spokesman first appeared on .

“I think my disqualification is injustice and I will follow-up with the supreme leader to solve this,” Mashaei said in an interview with Fars news agency.

Mahaei’s campaign also issued a statement on his disqualification asking Ayatollah Khamenei to “prevent violation of the nation’s principal rights.”

“We also ask the president Ahamadinejad to use his position to fix any possible violation over this issue,” the statement read.

Mashaei’s chance of being disqualified by the Guardian Council was very high due to his non-Islamic remarks.

He also made controversial statements about “the end of the Islamic Era”. “The Islamic Era is over; we began the revolution in 1979 to promote our ideas to other countries, but I should say that the Islamic Era is over; this doesn’t mean that clinging to Islamic ideas will vanish, but the Era is over. Like the Era of horse riding is over, but we still have horses and horse riding and the Era of cars will come to an end, but there will still be cars and driving.” He said.

Mashaee was accused in 2011 to be part of a big banking embezzlement. One of the main suspects confessed to his hidden meeting with Mashaee. Thus far neither Mashaee, nor the administration has commented on the matter.

The post Mashaei Will Ask Ayatollah Khamenei And Ahmadinejad To Fix His Disqualification first appeared on .

Saeed Jalili, Gholam-Ali Hadad Adel, Mohsen Rezaei, Hasan Rowhani, Mohammad-Reza Aref, Mohammad Gharazi, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Ali Akbar Velayati vetted by the Guardian Council and are official candidates for upcoming presidential election.

While Earlier today, Hasanali Nouri, head of the election desk of the interior ministry said in an interview with Iranian Nasim news agency that the list of qualified candidates will be announced on Wednesday, the interior ministry suddenly issued a statement on Thursday night and announced the list.

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei are not in the list of qualified candidates.

“I didn’t wanted to register for candidacy till last moments, I entered the race to serve the country and will do my best for the development of Iran and revolution till I’m alive,” Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former two-term president said in a meeting with a group of lawyers and university professors today.

Mashaei, the controversial aide of the president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also said to journalists today that he believe that he can be qualified and if the Guardian Council deny him, he will appeal in a legal procedure.

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Scores of people are stepping up for the presidency as we are witnessing more than 38 would-be candidates from the three major political parties in Iran, Principalists, Reformists and pro-governments, have registered as candidates.

Perhaps one of the significant turning points in Iran’s recent politics was the last minute registration of the three well-known figures: Saeed Jalili, secretary of the National Security Council, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, head of the expediency council and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, top advisor to the president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Most analysts consider Jalili’s unforeseen appearance as the most important. They believe Hashemi Rafsanjani is the experienced man who knows the ropes and it was nothing new to Iranian voters. In the eyes of the people, Mashaei is another Ahmadinejad, as he himself said, “Ahmadinejad means Mashaei and Mashaei means Ahmadinejad.”

But who is Saeed Jalili?

Jalili graduated from one of the most important institutes of Iran, Imam Sadigh University which is headed by Mohammad-Reza Mahdavi Kani, the current chairman of the Assembly of Experts. He went to war with Iraq in the 80s and one of his legs was amputated. But that didn’t stop him from continuing his studies.

His service as the secretary of Iran’s NSC and his handling of the sensitive nuclear program would be the most important job Jalili ever had.

“I had my high school diploma in 1983 and came to Tehran [from Mashhad] to study at the Imam Sadigh University. I received my MA in 1989 and applied for a PhD abroad. But at the same time I was recruited into the Foreign Ministry so I decided to study my PhD at Imam Sadigh University in political sociology. From 1992 to 1998 I was head of the inspection office of the foreign ministry,” Saeed Jalili wrote in his biography.

He also was in charge of one of the offices of the Supreme Leader for 4 years.

why is Jalili’s candidacy important?

Jalili 48, doesn’t  have much executive experience and is mostly seen as a diplomat. however he is very popular among Iranian voters. The Internet is filled with posters and articles supporting him and even some of the famous candidates said they are ready to step aside in favor of him.

One day after Jalili’s registration, many Principalists faced numerous questions on how they perceive his candidacy. Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel, former MP and a known Pricipalist candidate welcomed Jalili’s candidacy and said, it’s possible that our coalition of 2+1 (Adel, Mohammad- Bagher Ghalibaf and Ali Akbar Velayati) will support Jalili altogether.

Another candidate, Alireza Zakani said he is ready to unite with Jalili. The Jebheye Paydari front which is led by Ayatollah Mohammad-Taghi Mesbah Yzdi, a senior cleric from Qom, cited Jalili’s candidacy as being productive and helpful.

Being in the National Security Council since 2007, Jalili has become a symbol of the resistance against the demands of the west on the nuclear issue and has been leading the iranian team in negotiations with the EU and USA (P5+1).

Jalili sat down with the foreign policy authorities of Europe, China and Russia several times and boasted about  Iran’s advancement in nuclear technology as the officials of the US council of foreign policy have reportedly stated their concerns of pressures on Iran being fruitless.

 Twice Jalili rejected an invitation from a US representative in the P5+1 to have bilateral meetings . For Iranians, this shows he can confront the US.

The First time he was in Geneva when William Burns, indirectly asked him for talks, through the foreign Minister of Switzerland. The Iranian delegation rejected this and demanded a public hearing in the P5+1 meeting but the US representative wanted Jalili to listen to him anyway. finally they had a one-by-one sidebar conservation.

When back home, Saeed Jalili said, no one should act out of accord with the Supreme Leader’s will. It was perhaps an indication that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei criticized Jalili’s bilateral talk with the American undersecretary of state. So in the next rounds of talks Jalili avoided to hold bilateral talks with Americans.

In Iran, Jalili is seen as a politician close to Iran’s Leader who demands Iran’s strong role in politics and economics. He reiterated several times that the key to Iran’s success and progress, is resistance and this word is what Ayatollah Khamenei underlines in all of his speeches.

Public opinion has responded positively to Jalili’s candidacy as several people’s committees formed independent election campaigns supporting him.

Iranian people don’t have a negative memory of him, because he was never involved in domestic politics. While Hashemi’s past is filled with failures (of course along with successes) and this can be a winner for Jalili, as it was for Ahmadinejad in 2005 when his opponent was Hashemi.

*Masoud Foroghi is a student political activist and an editor of the Iranian University Student news website.

The post Jalili: Amputee Candidate Becoming Frontrunner in Presidential Race first appeared on .

Iran Will Foil Enemy Plots: Minister of Intelligence

Iran’s Minister of Intelligence said on Wednesday that “[Iran enemies] have plans about Iran upcoming presidential election but we will foil enemy plots.”

“All [in the Intelligence Ministry] are prepared to counter enemy’s plans [to sabotage iran election],” he said stressing that “most of the plans are in media.”

Two Battalions of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards hold a drill on Tuesday to practice tactics of street riots.

100 MPs Urged Rejection of Hashemi Rafsanjani

100 MPs signed a plea, asking Iran’s Guardian Council to reject Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani candidacy; citing him indirectly supporting the “sedition leaders” during 2009 post-election unrests.

Ahmadinejad: Let Everyone Take Part in the Election

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad talking to journalists asked the Guardian Council to “let the different political orientation to take part in the election and people would cast their votes.”

Ahmadinejad is supporting his controversial adviser, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei in the upcoming presidential election. Mashaei’s chance of being disqualified by the Guardian Council is very high due to his non-Islamic remarks.

Only 7-8 Candidate Will Be Permitted: Member of the Guardian Council

Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, a member of the Guardian Council said today that only “7 or 8 presidential candidates will be approved.”

“Most of the candidates will be disqualified because they lack enough management experience,” he said during his class on religion.

686 candidates registered in Iranian presidential election.

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“The US, Israel, Deviant Circle and the seditionists will challenge Iran’s election if they find a chance,” Deputy Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri said in an exclusive interview with Iran’sView on Tuesday.

“They will try to replace the [presidential] election with a crisis,” he said.

The Iranian leadership labeled those reformists who supported the allegations that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the 2009 election through fraud, as “seditionists”. The government critics also call the Ahmadinejad’s top adviser  Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei and his circle as the “Deviant Current” who are deviated from the real path of the Islamic Republic.

Jazayeri underlined the possibility of a new sedition would be created by the “leaders of sedition”, United States and Israel and asked political authorities to be cautious.

 “Some internal elements are seeking compromise with enemies led by US and want to appease to their excessive demands,” said Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri in an interview with Iran’sView adding, “But the majority of Iranians does not agree with those elements and will confront them.”

 “Superpowers and specially US were in confrontation with Iran,” Jazayeri said.

The post Senior Iranian Commander Warns About “Replacing Election With a Crisis” first appeared on .

September 2010, when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced the first steps of a subsidy targeting plan through the state TV, he never have guessed that in less than 2 years, he would be inundated with censure.

Critics accuse him of not carrying out the reforms in the right way. They claim that he was oblivious to the laws passed by the Majlis and instead has put his own ideas into action. His actions resulted in high inflation, weakening of domestic producers and destabilizing the market.

Subsidy targeting is part of a five step, “Subsidy Reform Plan” in Iran.  According to the 2010 act of the Majlis, the government could gain revenue of billions of Rials by canceling subsidies for energy carriers and essential goods. According to the Majlis’ laws the government should have given 50% of the revenue to the people. 30% should have been given to the producers and the rest would have been for the government expenses. Most of the critics are targeting this issue. Critics are mostly supporters of the program, but they say the government gave the producers’ share to the people to raise the given cash subsidy.

Products have subsequently become more expensive, because of the increased cost of transportation. Those who couldn’t afford it laid off workers and canceled productions.

The Government has been blamed for being the main reason for inflation, unemployment and impairing the domestic producers. Accordingly the next phase of the subsidies which was supposed to come into action this year is still pending.

This has caused a debate among the upcoming Presidential candidates on how they are going to improve living conditions and finish the job of implementing subsidies:

Mohsen Rezaee, the Secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council and a candidate commented on this matter: I’m totally in favor of subsidy reforms. He even promised to raise the given cash subsidy 2.5 times.

Ali Akbar Velayati, a candidate from the so called “Advancement” or “2+1” coalition thinks differently: Every administration is obliged to continue the subsidies but only those with low income should receive the cash subsidy. We can exclude the well off from receiving it and put it into long term investments and fund the country’s economy.

Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Tehran’s mayor and a Principalist candidate believes that the Reform Act is not implemented correctly. But it is a vital necessity that should be continued.

Ghoal Ali Hadad-Adel thinks like his other Principalist friends. He believes that not allocating the subsidy to domestic production has caused serious problems. He also said that the given subsidy cash should be raised considerably.

Kamran Bagheri Lankarani and Alireza Zakani are among the anti-west figures. Lankarani said, he would continue subsidies, keeping a close eye on low income people and limiting the impact it has on the inflation.

Zakani suggested a 7-step program to implement the subsidies. He said we should know the target social group  because now the cash subsidy is distributed among the rich and poor evenly which is not equitable.

Reformists criticize the government on subsidy reforms. Muhammad Reza Aref, (VP in Khatami administration), Hasan Rowhani (head of the Center for Strategic Research), Mustafa Kavakebian (MP) and Masoud Pezeshkian (minister in Hashemi administration) are the best known Reformist candidates. But considering Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s candidacy they are likely to step aside in favor of him.

Hashemi hardly criticizes the Ahmadinejad administration on subsidy reforms and said subsidies should have strengthened producers and improved the country’s economy and agriculture. Instead it has caused inflation and devalued the national currency by giving money to the people.

Hashemi’s critics say he believes in the Capitalist model as he did in his 8 year presidency.

Esfandiar Rahim Mashaee thinks very differently on the issue. This controversial figure is considered a candidate supported by the government.

 He said I feel it’s my duty to continue Ahmadinejad’s policies.

He believes the implemented first step of subsidies had no negative consequences and the government was successful in controlling the inflation.

The conclusion

As we see different views among political parties and different individuals, implementing subsidies and the amount and distribution of cash subsidies will change unless Ahmadinejad’s protégé is elected.

Most of the government critics say it’s very likely that the producers and the low income people will receive a better portion of the cash subsidies.

The anti-Iran sanctions could have a direct impact on implementing the subsidies. Yet this may change according to the final winner’s view towards the West.

We should wait and see that which candidate, with what political and economic proposals will win.

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