Tehran-Moscow relations are poised to enter into a historic phase under the current circumstances and given the two countries’ ups and downs in history.

Throughout the past several months, Iran and Russia have stepped up efforts to deepen their ties. The recent Moscow visit by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, holding the first Iran-Russia strategic relations meeting in Moscow, the Tehran visits of the Russian ministers of defense and energy and, above all, the visit by senior Iranian official Ali Akbar Velayati to submit the message of President Rouhani to Russian President Vladimir Putin are but examples that make the mutual efforts by the two countries to enhance their ties evident.

By sending Velayati, the Supreme Leader’s advisor in international affairs, to Moscow as his special messenger, Rouhani meant to convey to Russians that the Leader has thrown his weight on enhancing ties with Kremlin and that the move enjoys the backing of the Islamic establishment’s highest political decision-makers.

Now the question is: Why should Iran be seeking enhanced ties with Russia?

1. The sitting administration in Iran took office with promises of bolstering foreign relations and international status of the country in a bid to allay the nation’s political and economic concerns. To that effect, Rouhani has spent most of his energy on resolving Iran’s nuclear issue in the talks with the group of P5+1, while the outcome of the talks have disproved being worth his endeavors so far. As the talks drag on and US sticks to its sanctions against Iran, hopes for reaching a final nuclear agreement flare up inside Iran, and the administration has embarked on its Plan B to resolve the nation’s economic problems.

Enhancement of ties with Russia tells the West, especially the US, that the Islamic Republic has a firm Plan B and it would adhere to if the talks fail. It also says that Iran has not limited all its efforts to the future of the talks. “If they [P5+1 negotiators with Iran] fail to make such an agreement, the people of Iran, officials, the honorable administration and others have many different options. They should definitely take these options so that they can counteract and slow the plot of imposing sanctions,” said Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei in speech he delivered on February 8, 2015 in a meeting with commanders and personnel of the Air Force of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army.

2. Taking office of a moderate president in Iran has raised hopes for the peaceful resolution of Iran’s nuclear case with the West. This has stoked Kremlin with fears that more pressure will be put on Russia if Iran’s relations with the West normalize. Iran’s decision to raise interactions and enhance ties with Russia can quell its worries in this regard.

3. In its new approach, Iran has tried to exploit Russia’s dispute with the West in the talks. Dr. Velayati said after his meeting with Putin that new Russian stance in the talks should be expected in the talks.

4. There are several areas where the two countries enjoy common grounds like the crises in Syria and Iraq, opposing US monopoly and Iran’s tender to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Tehran-Moscow cooperation can facilitate these areas.

5. Iran and Russia can severely influence the world energy market. As the two countries’ oil revenues have fallen dramatically thanks to the falling oil prices, which they believe is a political plot hatched jointly by the US and its Middle East ally Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia have been prompted to think out plans to enhance their ties in order to shield their economies against the current and future economic assaults. This was evident when Russian energy minister attended Velayati’s meeting with Putin in Moscow.

All in all, when dealing with Russia, certain points need to be considered:
Iranian decision-makers must be wary of the fact that enhanced relations with Russia must not, under any circumstances, be based on West’s animosity toward the two nations because if this is not the case in the future, Iran will be the side that loses the most. Secondly, Iran must always remember that Kremlin would never prefer Iran over Western allies.

* Soheil Kheiri has an M.A in Eurasian studies from the School of International Relations of the Iranian Foreign Ministry. His articles about the Russian politics are published in the scientific journals and he regularly writes for Iranian newspapers and political magazines.

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According to the latest official results announced by Iran’s Interior Ministry with 23,014,873 ballots counted so far, the moderate cleric Hassan Rowhani is leading with 11,754,013 votes which is 51.07% of the counted votes followed by Tehran’s Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with 3,494,938 which is 15.19% of the counted votes.

If a candidate wins over 50 percent of the vote in the first round, he will replace the incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Otherwise a run-off will be held in a week’s time to determine a final winner in the race.

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Saeed Jalili: “Everybody must respect whoever the people elect…I ask all the people and supporters of candidates to help create the political epic.”

Mohsen Rezaei: “I have come here to say people are our main concern, that’s why I came to cast my vote. I will thank the Iranian nation for whatever decision they make today… My way is the continuation of the way of my martyred brothers.”

Hassan Rowhani: if the people create a great epic today on july 14, july 15 will be the victory day for the Iranian nation and not a particular candidate… the owner of this country is the nation. The country is theirs and their right… We are witnessing a higher turnout in this election.

Mohammad Gharazi: Today is the day of Resurrection for the revolution and the election. The enemy has sheathed its sword… what organizes the election are the votes of the people. I will accept whatever the Interior Ministry, the Guardian Council, and the nation say. I have told the guardian council in a letter that I will not have representatives because I fully trust their staff.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf:”Certainly only one of the candidates will be elected and people’s choice will be the best their votes will be respected… I want to make fundamental and basic changes in the area of progress and justice.”

Ali Akbar Velayati: “What is most important is the people’s turnout and electing the best candidate… people should rush to the polls… Whoever people vote for will be respected by all of us.”

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Many of the country’s top officials have already cast their votes with the Leader of the Islamic Republic being the first. He urged the nation to go to the polls early. In response to remarks by a American National Security Council official, the leader stated that the Iranian nation would not be influenced by such remarks and that they would act according to their own beliefs and needs.

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Mohammad Reza Aref a reformist candidate in Iran’s upcoming presidential election announced his quit from the race in favor of the presidential candidate Hasan Rowhani who is strongly backed by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

“I quit from the election race because Mr. Khatami advised me to do so,” a statement of Aref published in his website read.

“Mr. Aref will abide by any decision taken by Mohammad Katami,” said Hasan Rasouli, Aref’s spokesman in an interview with Iran’s View on Monday.

“The Advisory Council of the Reformists headed by Mohammad Khatami was in charge of choosing a single candidate for the party,” he said.

Meanwhile Mohammad Reza Aref has repeatedly said he “will stand in the election race till the end.” He has even sworn this morning to not quit the race.

A few days ago his spokesperson told Iran’s View that Reformists chose Aref as the candidate for the party.

But it seems Hasan Rowhani and his supporters were successful to make Aref quit the race.

Hasan Rowhani a former secretary of Iran’s National Security Council and currently an envoy to the supreme leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei on the council is backed by Hashemi Rafsanjani the former two-term president of the country.

Aref is backed by the former president Mohammad Khatami who is a leader of the Iranian reformists.

In recent weeks the Reformists front witnessed hot debates between Khatami and Rafsanjani on choosing a single candidate for the Reformists in the presidential election.

Aref didn’t even recognize Rowhani as a reformist. Rowhani once during Khatami’s presidency signed a letter that conservatives wrote against him. In other hand, Khatami and his inner circle believe Rowhani would prefer Hashemi’s interests to the reformists’ approaches.

Anyway the Reformists’ success to have a single candidate is the worst news for the Principalists who have three candidates for the presidential election.

The Principalists failed to form a coalition and choose a single candidate so far. Although Gholam Ali Hadad Adel quit the race on Monday in favor of “all principalists” but given his low performance in the different polls it will not help the Principalists to compete against a strong reformist rival.

The three Principalist candidates who are unlikely to quit in favor of each other are: Saeed Jalili Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Tehran’s mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and former foriegn minister Ali Akbar Velayati

According to the polls and latest analysis after the withdrawal of Aref, Hasan Rowhani will have more than 20% of the ballot and will be competing with the Principalists’ front-runner Ghalibaf who has about 25% of the ballot.

Political observers in Tehran believe if the Principalists fail to form a coalition, Hasan Rowhani will attract a significant percent of the votes and will compete against Ghalibaf in the run-off round.

Iranians will cast their votes in the presidential election on Friday June 14th. A run-off round is expected as none of six remaining candidates are likely to gain 50% of ballots in polls.

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“In this meeting we are to clarify the procedures of the election [for the candidates] and to hear comments of the candidates,” said Kadkhodaei in a presser just before the meeting.

While the representative of Gholam Ali Hadad Adel was absent at today’s meeting. A few hours after the meeting Gholam Ali Hadad Adel issued a statement announcing his quit from the election race in favor of the “Prinipalist Candidates”. He didn’t mention name of any of the candidates.

The spokesman of the Guardian Council also denied the reports on the possibility of reconsidering qualifications of the reformist candidate Hasan Rowhani.

 Iranian Fars News Agency reported earlier today that the Guardian Council will reconsider Rowhani’s qualifications in an urgent meeting today.

“We may give notices to the candidates about some aspects of their campaigning but we not review the qualifications,” Kadkhodaei said.

At the beginning of the meeting, the represantatives of the candidates delivered a short statement about explaining their candidates’ stance on procedures of the election.

“I appreciate the Guardian Council,” said Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh, the representative of Rowhani, “It can avoid any misunderstanding if we the representatives of the candidates be present during sealing of ballot boxes,” he said.

The campaing manager of another reformist candidate, Mohammad Reza Aref also said they will be committed to the law in every step of the election.

“Our slogan is commitment to the law so we accept the role of the Guardian Council in vetting the qualifications and counting of the ballots,” he said.

Shahin Mohammad-Sadeghi a representative of Ali Akbar Velayati also said his candidate is committed to the law and will abide any decision by the Guardian Council.

Ali Bagheri the representative of Saeed Jalili also underlined the “important role of the Guardian Council in the last elections” and said: “This initiative by the Guardian Council to have closely interaction with the candidates shows the council has a serious approach [to have a fair election].”

Talking to the journalists, Bagheri denied the possibility of Jalili quitting on behalf of any other Principalist candidates.

“Saeed Jalili will not quit from the race. His popularity is boosting after the TV debates,” he said.

The representatives of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Mohammad Gharazi and Mohsen Rezaei endorsed the role of the Guardian Council and wished a fair election with a high turn-out.

Iranians will cast their votes on behalf of one the 8 presidential candidates on June 14. 

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Only one week to the Iran’s first presidential election since the 2009 election which president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won causing street unrest, currently all private polls by Iran’s intelligence ministry, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting organization and some other governmental organizations show Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Ali Akbar Velayati and Saeed Jalili all Principalists respectively will have the most votes. So Hasan Rowhani and Mohammad Reza Aref two reformist candidates, cannot even enter the run off round if the reformists don’t agree on a single candidate to stay in the race.

Unofficial but reliable polls either by governmental institutes or private institutes show each of the two reformist candidates can gain almost 8% of ballots, while Ghalibaf would win about 30% of ballots and Velayati and Jalili each have about 11% of votes.

Mohammad Reza Aref Vice President under Mohammad Khatami’s administration said several times during the last two weeks that he will “stay till the end” and he does not recognize Rowhani who is an envoy of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei in Iran’s National Security Council as a reformist.

But Rowhani’s campaign manager Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh said on Thursday that both Aref and Rowhani welcome a coalition and they are working on that.

On the same day Sayed Hadi Khamenei a prominent reformist figure and a key member of the reformist Association of Combatant Clerics said Mohammad Reza Aref is the representative of all reformists.

“Hassan Rowhani is not a reformist. The Council for Coordinating the Reformist Front supports Aref,” he said during the inauguration of Aref’s campaign headquarters in the city of Chanaran.

Aref’s spokesman complains about Rowhani’s refrain from accepting the decision to unify behind Aref 

Although an interview with Hasan Rasooli (a deputy of Mohammad Reza Aref) with Iran’sView on Thursday shows some developments in the reformist’s front.

“Reformists will gain a better result if Dr. Aref and Dr. Rowhani agree on a mechanism initiated by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami to determine a single candidate to remain in the race,” said Hasan Rasooli in an exclusive interview with Iran’sView.

Rasooli said Mohammad Khatami a key leader of the reformist front is trying to form a coalition.

The spokesman of Aref said the Reformist presidential candidate will welcome Khatami’s decision but he expects the decision to not be affected by “unreal inductions”.

“If Mr. Rowhani and his campaigners have more cooperation, we can reach a better result for the coalition,” this mild complaint from Rasooli can be a sign of Rowhani’s refrain from accepting the reformist leaders’ decision which seems to be a consensus on Aref as the candidate of the reformists.

Mohammad Khatami has a close relation with Aref, former vice president under Khatami’s administration. Aref also could gain a better result in polls compared to Rowhani.

On the other hand, Hashemi Rafsanjani a former two-term president of Iran and a powerful figure close to the reformists is closer to Hasan Rowhani. but Rowhani’s record as Iran’s top nuclear negotiator in talks with three European countries (Britain, France and Germany) which resulted in suspending all Iran’s nuclear activities is a weakness point of him that brings most attacks and critics of the Principalists.

This difference between the two most prominent reformist leaders maybe made the decision making more difficult. ”

“Anyways, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Khatami both will publicly support the final candidate of the reformists,” Aref’s deputy said in an exclusive interview with Iran’sView.

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