Iranians voted Friday in a presidential contest that pit President Hassan Rouhani against a serious challenger, Seyyed Ebrahim Raeisi, in an unexpectedly tight race. Election polls historically misses their mark and unable to correctly predict Iran elections’ results. The results of latest US presidential election also came as a surprise to nearly everyone. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at 70%! In such circumstances, many observers are casting doubt on the accuracy of public opinion polls.

“The war of polls is scientific on the face of it, but it is commonplace in actual fact which has no realist bases and standard criteria. In Iran, too, a big difference in the results of the polls of the two parties in the elections is indicative of the fact that none of them is blessed with pragmatic and scientific tools for opinion surveys. Moreover, performance of big institutions has been discredited many times, such as the presidential elections of 2005 and 2013. In both these elections, the polls had never given a chance for the candidates who won the elections in the end. As a result, the polls should be taken into consideration in a careful manner”, says Payam Fazlinejad, having cooperated with various reformist as well as Principlist press as a writer and analyst.

Pointing to the devastating effects of the war of polls, he said, “Lack of analytical power and power measurement are risky, and leave negative effects on the decisions of the campaigns in the remaining three days to the election day because some part of their political decisions are made in these days based on the very polls and surveys which has no scientific base. The trend can result in miscalculations in campaigns of both parties either prior or subsequent to the elections. It even may turn triumph into a complete failure in the long run. The outburst of news about such matters in the last days which are on the basis of these opinion polls may work against itself only if it is mixed with miscalculations. It can be the case for all the campaigns.

In response to the question of “How close are the predictions of the reformist and Principlist elites and statesmen to what the people, in general, believe about the winner of the elections?” Fazlinejad, who has the experience of working as a senior researcher in the institution Keyhan for ten years, said, “We should learn from the experience. The US elections in 2016 proved with certainty that prediction is irrational in actual fact. I believe in Churchill’s statements which is peculiar to Iran’s political society, ’A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen’. Iran is a complex society which no one can foretell its behavior and unfortunately, no attempt has been made in order to work on its predictability. For the purpose of making the society predictable, we are supposed to work out plans for developing political psychology as well as political sociology circles, but neither elites nor statesmen actually pay attention to such fields except for the night of the elections!

In response to the question of “What do you think are the wrong measures of both parties?”, he said, “Both parties have heavily invested in the cyberspace and social networks, but took no notice of the real society from the beginning. When the political activists restrict themselves to the cyberspace, their relationship with different social strata and their issues and concerns are reduced and they lose the power of creating a big social movement. Both parties have made their best in the last two weeks to keep their supporters away from the “cyberspace restriction” in social networks. They have developed plans such as sending representatives to far-off places, small towns and villages, but leading the supporters to social networks, and the distribution of news and analyses in internet media have resulted in the energy outburst far on in time.

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– This election was a response to all the accusations against the Islamic Republic and its purity.

 – Islamic Republic’s founder taught us that the country should be ruled by people according to Islamic laws.

 – Iranians chose a new path. The future administration should act according to the will majority of voters. Iranians voted for moderation and logic.

– I’ve heard many people who didn’t vote that they are sorry that they didn’t participate in the glorious election. They usually say they didn’t know it was going to turn out like this.

On the next administration’s approach:

– The future administration should avoid extremism. Iranians demanded national unity.  People demanded implementing the law. The government is obliged to treat people equally according to law.

 – Moderation should be present in every aspect of the country.

– I have discussed with the President Ahmadinejad to facilitate the transition process.

-The future administration is faithful to its promises. This administration is not from one political faction and is not committed to one party. I welcome every politician from any political faction, only if they are moderate.

On the Foreign Policy:

 -We are facing a unique situation in our foreign policy. Our foreign policy is neither a contentiousness nor animosity.

– We have to cooperate with other countries according to our mutual interests. We have to take confidence building steps.

Excerpts collected from our partner NasimOnline.

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Almost 40 days have passed since President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s close companion, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, was disqualified for candidacy in presidential election and the president’s silence so far has surprised many.

His controversial and exaggerating support for Mashaei, especially in the last six months prior to the election was to an extent which made many expect an eruptive reaction from him.

Mashaei is Ahmadinejad’s longtime close friend whose actions, as many critics say, decreased the president’s popularity. He has had overstatements and exorbitant talks about sacred principals of Islam and Shiism and is also charged with political and economical corruption, but Ahmadinejad has insisted many times that “I am Mashaei, and Mashaei is me”. Upon his disqualification, the president said he would pursuit the case to the last minute via the leader and hoped the issue would be solved.

“The president met the leader tree times and requested for his special order [on the issue] but the leader did not accept his requests,” said Haj Sadeghi, the deputy of the representative of the Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

It is not clear if Ahmadinejad did other things too but in a gathering held on June 24, when he spoke to his supporters he said sarcastically, “They omitted a number of the pure and the believer and many were sad and contacted me regularly,” He did not mention any names but political observers say he was referring to disqualification of Mashaei.        

The president’s supporters and even many of his critics expected the president to attack the main organizations of the system, especially the Guardian Council, but unbelievably he did nothing and pretended to obey the law.

Ahmadinejad’s “mere” silence was so strange that led political observers make two analyses.

A small group of observers who believe in the first analysis still are waiting for Ahmadinejad’s political attack. They believe the president is adding to his indirect protest with suspending his provincial trips and doing nothing for the economy. These analysts say the president is angry about the big defeat of his men in the presidential and city council elections and the cases against him in the judiciary and has a special plan to punish his critics even if only one day remains from his administration.

But the second group of analysts rejects the first analysis and makes a totally different argument in response to it. They say during recent years, Dr. Ahmadinejad and his friends have reached to this conclusion that standing against original and principal organizations of the Islamic Republic and creating tensions in the country would lead to a decline in their popular votes and omission from the country’s political system. According to them, for several reasons it is not expected from Ahmadinejad to make any upheaval in the remaining days of his presidency:

1. Considering the two orders by the leader, one regarding the vice presidency of Mashaei and the other regarding the ministry of information, Ahmadinejad thought he could make the system back off but his prediction turned wrong. He also has seen that even during the 2009 protests and riots the system did not back off from its position and did not nullify the votes so he would not make the same mistake over Mashaei’s disqualification.
2. Inability to control economic problems that led to increased financial pressure against the people, paying little attention to the sacred, and disagreeing with some rules and leader’s advices weaken his social standing. The president cannot make tension in the society when he does not have popular support.
3. The president does not want to make himself a center of hatred forever with making a not very useful tension in the country
4. He wants to remain as a peaceful and oppressed figure in the mind of the people, leaving good memories behind himself and giving himself the chance of returning to top positions again.
5. He does not want to compensate the chance of getting away from the charges against him and his friends in several economic and political suits for a political upheaval which does not have a clear result.
6. A political attack might destroy the president’s critics but its costs would be more than its benefits and it would be more like a suicidal action and not a contemplated action.
7. If Ahmadinejad wanted to create tension he would do it before the election but his silence then showed he was not willing to do so.

Based on these reasons the second analysis seems to be closer to reality and thus we should not expect more tensions and upheavals from the president.

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Referring to the high turnout in Iran’s presidential election he said: “I’ve done my best to empower the Islamic Republic and now I need your help.”

Rowhani also met with Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and reformist figures Mohammad Khatami and Mohammad Reza Aref on Saturday.

Khatami Thanked The Supreme Leader Aytollah Khamenei

Former President and a leader of Reformist movement in Iran Khtami said in his meeting with Rowhani that “We should thank the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Khamenei] for his effort to create the grounds of the political epic.”

Rowhani Will Go to Majlis

Rowhani will go to Iran’ Majlis on Wednesday to Meet MPs and consult them about his cabinet.

Iran’s President-Elect To Visit Iraq and Senior Shia Clerics

The Iraqi Al-Dostour newspaper reported that Iran’s President-elect will travel to Iraq in early July to meet Shia senior clerics in Najaf.

According to the report, Rowhani will visit holy cities of Najaf and Karbala. Possibility of his meeting with Iraqi officials is unknown.

The post Iran Updates: Khatami Thanked The Supreme Leader, Rowhani Vowed To Empower The Islamic Republic first appeared on .

The Iranian president elect, Hassan Rowhani, is going to be sworn into office in less than 50 days and then based on the country’s constitution he has to introduce his ministers to the Parliament in two weeks.

Before the election, Rowhani pledged to use individuals with different political tendencies in his administration. It seems that he is under pressure from some figures, political parties, and the media who try to influence his decisions for appointing his ministers. One of these figures is Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who supported Rowhani in his presidential campaign. He has advised Rowhani to use “qualified and experienced people in industry and manufacturing.”

According to a  website close to the Hashemi’s family Rowhani has formed an ‘Appointment Committee’ responsible for the appointment of ministers. The committee includes Ali Yonesi, Akbar Torkan, eshagh Jahangiri, Mohammad Ali Najafi, Mohammadreza Nematzadeh who all served as top officials and ministers during Hashemi’s presidency.

So far, the only person whom Rowhani has named as a member of his cabinet is Mohammad Reza Aref, the Reformist Candidate who withdrew from the presidential race under pressures by reformists’ leader and former president Mohammad Khatami and Rowhani’s supporters.

There are speculations about Rowhani’s possible ministers. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Ali Akbar Velayati and Mohsen Rezaee who were among his rivals in the election are said to be among the appointments as Rowhani promised in the pre-election debates to use his rivals in his administration.

It is said that Ghalibaf would be offered the Housing Ministry, Rezaee the Ministry of Welfare and Social Affairs, and Velayati the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

For the Ministry of Foreign Affairs there are three possible candidates: Mahmoud Vaezi, Rowhani’s political representative in his presidential campaign, Ali Akbar Salehi the current foreign minister and Kamal Kharrazi Khatami’s foreign minister, all of them said to an equal chance to get the position.

Aref, Najafi, and Mohsen Mehralizadeh are thought to be his options for vice presidency and Ali Yonesi for Ministry of Information.

Based on a speculation, Ali Akbar Nategh Noori a well-known revolutionary figure who has severed under Mirhossein Mousavi as the interior minister and also headed the fourth and fifth parliaments will be appointed as the Minister of Interior and a weaker speculation gives Eshagh Jahangiri the same chance.

Bijan Namdar zangane who served under, Mousavi, Hashmeni, and Khatami as minister is said to be appointed as Oil Minister, with Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh being the second choice for the position.

For the ministry of Defense, three options are talked about: Ali shamkhani, Akbar Torkan, and above the two, Hossein Dehghan who also was vice president during Khatami and Ahmadinejad administrations.

Ali Akbar Salehi, Gholamreza Aghazadeh, and Hossein Freidoni are said to be the candidates for heading the country’s Atomic Energy Organization.

For the Ministry of Industry, Mining, and Business the possible candidates are Mohammad Shariatmadari, Nematzadeh, and Mohammad Nahavandian and for the Ministry of Economy the speculations fall on Mohammad Bagher Nobakht.

Rowhani is being fully observed for his possible choice for the Ministry of Science due to what he promised to students before the election. Abdollah Jasbi, Jafar Tofighi and Ali Abbaspour are considered as possible candidates for the position.

It is speculated that Ali Motahhari is going to be appointed as the Minter of Culture. Motahhari is a devoted supporter of Hashemi and despite favoring freedom of expression he has strict views about hijab and public morals.

The Ministry of Sports is probably going to be taken by either Sayyed Mostafa Hashemi-Taba or Mohammad Dadkan, both suggested to Rowhani by champions of different sports.

The current Minister of Justice Morteza Bakhtiari has a high chance to remain in the position but Abbas-Ali Shooshtari is also another possible candidate who has served in the position before.

The president-elect is said to offer Ministry of Helath to Salahoddin Delshad or Masood Pezeshkian.

His possible candidate for the Ministry of Communication would be Nasrollah Jahangard, and for the Ministry of Roads and Urban Developments among the possible candidates are Ali Abdolalizadeh and Ali Akbar Aghaee.

None of these speculations have been officially approved by Rowhani so far.

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On Monday his answers were surprising for all observers.

Of course the election of Rowhani as Iran’s new president will make some changes on the country’s methods in dealing with internal and international issues but it is unrealistic if one expects Rowhani a moderate cleric to make substantial changes on Iran’s policies.

As IransView’s Abdullah Almasi explained earlier Rowhani is not a real reformist and lacked the popularity of the Reformists’ main candidate Mohammad Reza Aref whose followers ended up unifying behind the previously Fundamentalist Rowhani.

Following Rowhani’s victory in Iran’s Presidential election, western leaders reacted positively and expressed hope that Rowhani would take Iran on a ‘different course.’

“The expectations of the international community with regard to Iran are significant, especially about its nuclear programme and its involvement in Syria, ” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said in a statement shortly after Rowhani won the Iran’s election.

In the President-elect’s first press conference a reporter of France24 recalled the time that Mr. Rowhani as the Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council suspended Iran’s nuclear activities and asked whether he is ready to suspend nuclear enrichment again as a confidence building step. “That era is behind us,” Rowhani replied.

The decision of the Reformist government in 2004 (when Rowhani was Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator) to suspend all of Iran’s nuclear activities attracted a lot of criticism because the West failed to abide by its promises and to normalize Iran’s nuclear dossier.

In the last months of the Reformist government of Mohammad Khatami Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei ordered the reformist government to cancel the voluntary suspension of nuclear activities and later the Principalist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would win the election by promising to reactivate Iran’s nuclear activities in his campaigns.

Now after 8 years of significant progress in Iran’s peacefull nuclear program, Hassan

Rowhani says a suspension of nuclear activities is a step backward.

“Our nuclear programme is completely transparent,” Mr Rowhani said on Monday in his presser.

He also condemned sanctions against Iran by saying “The sanctions are unfair and our (nuclear) activities are legal. These sanctions are illegal and only benefit Israel.”

On Iran’s stance toward Syria also Rowhani showed no change from the past.

“Our stance on Syria will never change,” Rowhani said.

“The final decision-maker about the fate of Syria is the Syrian nation, we oppose terrorism and a civil war and that other countries want to interfere in Syria’s internal affairs.”

Regarding Iran-US relations Rowhani also did not show a significant difference to the stance of Ayatollah Khamenei.

The issue of “Iran’s relations with the United States is a complicated and difficult one,” said Rowhani, adding “anyway we will not pursue any escalation of tensions.”

“Any talks with the United States should be based on mutual respect and interests as well as being on an equal footing,” said Rowhani repeating the Supreme Leader’s words regarding the issue.

The resumption of negotiations with the United States has a number of pre- conditions,” Rowhani said on Monday in his first press conference.

“U.S. officials should not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs as they have committed to in the [1981] Algeria accord. They should recognize all Iranian rights including nuclear rights. And the United States should give up unilateral measures against Iran.”

Among the chief provisions of the Algeria accord between Iran and the US were that ‘The US would not intervene politically or militarily in Iranian internal affairs’ and ‘The US would remove a freeze on Iranian assets and trade sanctions on Iran’ both of which were violated by the US.

The surprise for internal and external observers was not only Rowhani’s alignment with Iran’s current foreign policy, but also that some hardline reformist media also failed to see a sign of a big change in internal affairs.

“I’m the president of all of Iranians,” Rowhani replied when a reformist reporter asked him to reward reformists who backed him in the presidential election.

“Firstly I appreciate all individual and parties who supported me in the election campaign but please don’t forget that I’m the president of all Iranians.”

Rowhani also refused to answer a couple of questions asked by reformist reporters about the two reformist leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi who are under house arrest since the post 2009 election unrest.

Rowhani’s reply to a reporter who insisted that Rowhani promise to invite Mohammad Reza Aref, the reformists’ candidate who quit the election race by request of Mr. Khatami was not clear and it seems Mr. Aref is still upset because the Reformist voters left him to support Rowhani. Aref said repeatedly in his election campaign that he does not recognize Rowhani as a reformist and he is the only candidate of the Reformists.

“I’ll invite all those qualified to cooperate with my government including Mr. Aref but it depends on Aref if he accepts the invitation, he may not be willing to be involved in my administration,” Rowhani said.

The post Don’t Expect Drastic Changes From Rowhani first appeared on .

Hassan Rowhani becomes Iran’s new president after winning 50.7% of the votes.

Iran’s Minister of the Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar officially announced the final results of Iran’s presidential election (held yesterday Friday).

A 72.7% turn-out of voters shocked foreign observers who didn’t predict such a high participation.

Of the 36,704,156 votes tallied Rowhani won a total of 18,613,329.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei issued a statement congratulating the “Political Acheivement” of the Iranian nation and to the elected President.

In his statement Ayatollah Khamenei described people’s high turn-out as a respond to the western propaganda against Iran.

“The real winner is Iranian nation,” he said.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who will remain Iran’s president for almost 2 months more issued a statement praising the Iranian nation for their strong participation in the elections. He also congratulated his successor Hassan Rowhani.

Rowhani’s Principalist rivals; Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Saeed Jalili, Mohsen Rezaee and Ali Akbar Velayati also congratulated the President to be.

Tehran’s Mayor Ghalibaf won 6,077,292 votes. Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili won 4,168,946 and the former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Mohsen Rezaee secured 3,884,412 of the votes.

Shortly after the announcement of Rowhani’s win, his supporters in Tehran and some other Iranian cities celebrated the victory in the streets.

 Former two-term President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who backed Rowhani in the elections issued a statement on Saturday calling Iran’s elections, the most democratic elections in the world.

“Iranians demonstrated their ignorance to foreign and domestic propaganda. Our enemies should confess that Iran has the most democratic election in the world and they can’t cast doubts on results,” the statement read.

He also appreciated the “Elections authorities” for the perfect conduct of the elections.

“The Tsunami of the Iranian nation beat the White House,” said Mohammad Reza Naghdi the commander of the Basij force (People’s Militia). “The High turn-out in the Iranian election proves the trust of the people to the Islamic establishment.”

On Friday, millions of Iranian voters headed for polling stations to cast their ballots and choose the country’s 11th president as well as their representatives in the city and village councils.

Nearly 50.5 million Iranians, including more than 1.6 million first-time voters, were eligible to vote in the June 14 elections.

The post Hassan Rowhani Elected As Iran’s New President first appeared on .

Stay Updated Here With Live Iranian Election Coverage!

According to the latest official results announced by Iran’s Interior Ministry with 23,014,873 ballots counted so far, the moderate cleric Hassan Rowhani is leading with 11,754,013 votes which is 51.07% of the counted votes followed by Tehran’s Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with 3,494,938 which is 15.19% of the counted votes.

If a candidate wins over 50 percent of the vote in the first round, he will replace the incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Otherwise a run-off will be held in a week’s time to determine a final winner in the race.

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